Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 Thin is an understatement.

 Is anyone else coming round to the idea that Betfair is completely gone at the game. The customer service, the Premium Chrge, their attitude to customers, the fact that you can't really get bigger prices unless you don't want them and all that are obviously all things people have been cross about, but people could always forgive them everything because of liquidity.

 In non-televised sport they may as well give up.

 If I ran it I'd sack the whole market ops team on day 1. They constantly attempt to split liquidity on everything by clogging up the menus with hundreds of markets that nobody bets on.

 In the American Football games yesterday you could go under/over 46/46.5 and 47 in the same game as well as betting "overtime yes/no?" and "will it be a tied game?" They had totals, spreads and win odds for every quarter in every game and apart from the usual guys trying to lay 1.01 and back at 1000/1 (it wouldn't really be that hard to clamp down n that) I never saw a penny matched.

 I just counted 14 markets in Monday Night Football that have zero matched and nobody really trying to get matched.

 How does anyone on here get on?

[ACE2M]

Thin is an understatement.

 Is anyone else coming round to the idea that Betfair is completely gone at the game. The customer service, the Premium Chrge, their attitude to customers, the fact that you can't really get bigger prices unless you don't want them and all that are obviously all things people have been cross about, but people could always forgive them everything because of liquidity.

 In non-televised sport they may as well give up.

 If I ran it I'd sack the whole market ops team on day 1. They constantly attempt to split liquidity on everything by clogging up the menus with hundreds of markets that nobody bets on.

 In the American Football games yesterday you could go under/over 46/46.5 and 47 in the same game as well as betting "overtime yes/no?" and "will it be a tied game?" They had totals, spreads and win odds for every quarter in every game and apart from the usual guys trying to lay 1.01 and back at 1000/1 (it wouldn't really be that hard to clamp down n that) I never saw a penny matched.

 I just counted 14 markets in Monday Night Football that have zero matched and nobody really trying to get matched.

 How does anyone on here get on?

whoever is running the show over there is a moron. Their advertising is ridiculous - they talk about value and best price, nobody but punters understand that language.

[Doobs]

Chompsville, the thoughts of the SCD "experts" are on this thread http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58901.30

I am Byrne and Walsh at the prices

AndrewT is Walsh and Harmer

From that thhread, I think Kimberly Walsh is the definite bet.  Should be a good dancer and is very likeable.

Pile on tikay.  Don't let your disappointment at missing the Clary coup cause you to miss this one.

[Tal]

Before you know who they are partnered with, before you know whether they can actually dance, taking a price to win seems bonkers to me.

We spend a thousand pages debating mountain stage gradients, weather conditions, pitch reports, previous scores, form slumps, averages against left handed pitchers...and then advocate betting someone with no information other than moderate popularity.

[tikay]

Before you know who they are partnered with, before you know whether they can actually dance, taking a price to win seems bonkers to me.

We spend a thousand pages debating mountain stage gradients, weather conditions, pitch reports, previous scores, form slumps, averages against left handed pitchers...and then advocate betting someone with no information other than moderate popularity.

Excellent.

It is Chess Bloke & me versus you lot. Bring it on.

Bloody Tosh TV.

[DungBeetle]

I would say Betfair are the most complacent business I have ever seen in any industry.  They are playing with fire imo.  However, as Neil says the liquidity saves them from a mass exodus - it is the only thing that saves them.

They have to be so careful, as if another platform got suitable liquidity they could literally disappear overnight.

[Graham C]

If you want an anti-Betfair chat, I believe you may have come to the right place!

[Doobs]

Before you know who they are partnered with, before you know whether they can actually dance, taking a price to win seems bonkers to me.

We spend a thousand pages debating mountain stage gradients, weather conditions, pitch reports, previous scores, form slumps, averages against left handed pitchers...and then

lose.  HTH

[Tal]

Before you know who they are partnered with, before you know whether they can actually dance, taking a price to win seems bonkers to me.

We spend a thousand pages debating mountain stage gradients, weather conditions, pitch reports, previous scores, form slumps, averages against left handed pitchers...and then advocate betting someone with no information other than moderate popularity.

Excellent.

It is Chess Bloke & me versus you lot. Bring it on.

Bloody Tosh TV.

To confirm, Tikay, what I mean is that, two weeks in, we will have lots of info available and only two awful dancers out (that won't affect the prices):

- who they are dancing with (ola and Anton get votes on their own)
- whether there is good chemistry between the two (Chelsea and Pasha got on brilliantly)
- whether they have rhythm and hips in the Latin
- whether they have posture and footwork in the ballroom
- how they work and learn in training
- how they come across (It Takes Two, forums, papers)
- whether there are any gossip issues (romances, racist comments, assaults..)
- how they get on with the judges/other contestants

Or we could just bet without any of that, on the basis that the bookmakers have an understanding of who has impressed in the pre-show training so far.

[redarmi]

Thin is an understatement.

 Is anyone else coming round to the idea that Betfair is completely gone at the game. The customer service, the Premium Chrge, their attitude to customers, the fact that you can't really get bigger prices unless you don't want them and all that are obviously all things people have been cross about, but people could always forgive them everything because of liquidity.

 In non-televised sport they may as well give up.

 If I ran it I'd sack the whole market ops team on day 1. They constantly attempt to split liquidity on everything by clogging up the menus with hundreds of markets that nobody bets on.

 In the American Football games yesterday you could go under/over 46/46.5 and 47 in the same game as well as betting "overtime yes/no?" and "will it be a tied game?" They had totals, spreads and win odds for every quarter in every game and apart from the usual guys trying to lay 1.01 and back at 1000/1 (it wouldn't really be that hard to clamp down n that) I never saw a penny matched.

 I just counted 14 markets in Monday Night Football that have zero matched and nobody really trying to get matched.

 How does anyone on here get on?

Yeah they have become a joke.   Their new fixed odds arm is testament to their approach to the game.  They offer no horseracing (surely they aren't suggesting that sport may be somewhat crooked and not worthy of betting on???!!??) and on Saturday they had a handicap on the first half of the Texas college football game but not on the actual game.  I think the problem is that they saw firms like Paddy Power, 365, Hills etc making x in profits with decent margins and saw that their margins were too small in comparison so decided to try and get a part of those markets.  What they fundamentally misunderstood is that, at their best, Betfair were game changers that would have been able to make those kind of firms less relevant but they are not competitors.....if the pure Betfair model was followed to its logical conclusions they were customers and participants but not competitors.  Those firms number one priority has always been profit margin maximisation.  Betfairs best chances were looking to maximise turnover at a low margin but somewhere along the line (probably when they decided they wanted to go public) they decided that the grass was greener on the other side of the river which is a shame because there are a few firms out there that realise that they can maximise turnover at a low margin.  In fact if we look at the biggest firms in terms of turnover they will almost certainly be Pinnacle, SBO, IBC etc.  They do volumes that would make your eyes bleed, take on all comers and keep a bit of it.  they also do it all online and can keep costs to an absolute minimum.  Their profit on turnover % might be below the big retail firms but in $ figures and after costs I would think they will be close and I know who has the more robust business.

[AndrewT]

But we're betting on the info available now. Saying 'wait until we've seen them dance' is like not betting on a 1m horse race until they've gone past the 6f pole.

The race essentially starts now and of course things will change as it goes along (watch the BF prices during the first show) but that's no good for Fred - is there any angle that we think we have that we can exploit now and we think there is - the favourite is too short. We can exploit that edge we think we have now.

[horseplayer]

Thin is an understatement.

 Is anyone else coming round to the idea that Betfair is completely gone at the game. The customer service, the Premium Chrge, their attitude to customers, the fact that you can't really get bigger prices unless you don't want them and all that are obviously all things people have been cross about, but people could always forgive them everything because of liquidity.

 In non-televised sport they may as well give up.

 If I ran it I'd sack the whole market ops team on day 1. They constantly attempt to split liquidity on everything by clogging up the menus with hundreds of markets that nobody bets on.

 In the American Football games yesterday you could go under/over 46/46.5 and 47 in the same game as well as betting "overtime yes/no?" and "will it be a tied game?" They had totals, spreads and win odds for every quarter in every game and apart from the usual guys trying to lay 1.01 and back at 1000/1 (it wouldn't really be that hard to clamp down n that) I never saw a penny matched.

 I just counted 14 markets in Monday Night Football that have zero matched and nobody really trying to get matched.

 How does anyone on here get on?

betdaq

a big bet for me is £200 a usual bet is around £40-£80

in the price range i back in it is equally useless trying to get matched on betfair as it is on betdaq (6-1-33-1 usually) so have to use a lot of firms.

i use betfair as a very last resort these days, they dont give a toss i have basically stopped betting with them but if more people did rather than just bemoan them they might just might get the picture.

[tikay]

But we're betting on the info available now. Saying 'wait until we've seen them dance' is like not betting on a 1m horse race until they've gone past the 6f pole.

The race essentially starts now and of course things will change as it goes along (watch the BF prices during the first show) but that's no good for Fred - is there any angle that we think we have that we can exploit now and we think there is - the favourite is too short. We can exploit that edge we think we have now.

Guess so.

Incidentally, Tal said....." whether they have rhythm and hips".

I'm pretty sure if they have no hips they would be a lay.

[redarmi]

Jesus, if Ms Pendleton is in it, I might have to watch this tripe too.

Would have thought Louis Smith had all the attributes to win this?

Nothing new in this article Keith but it is very good nonetheless http://www.guardian.co.uk/sport/2012/sep/09/victoria-pendleton-not-perfect-athlete

She really is a fascinating character and it is very telling how ruthless and, frankly, dislikeable a lot of the people at the top of these very successful sporting organisations are.

[AceHighSuited]

Anyone any thoughts on the 4:50 @ Bath?

I had one in the race penned in as a future winner, and we have taken a few bets on it from new account holders I'm now more tempted than ever get involved.