Tips for Tikay

[Graham C]

Could you contact your pals in Sky Sports that'd have access to some Opta stats package to figure out some obscure stats for you?

[ACE2M]

Gonna need to be a step ahead of the game if you want to beat corner markets Mr Kendall

I think its safe to say the odds compilers use the statistics to price the markets.

What you need to know is obscure stats- like if a team had a winger that never cut in and always went to the byline, corner expectation might be significantly higher if he is in the team. You could then look into statistics where Team A average 5.2 corners when he doesnt start and 7.4 corners if he does. Problem would then be sample size and statistical anomolies such as a large portion of games he starts are at home, against weaker sides, in cup games, opposition players were sent off etc. So only after studying every single game and the changing variables would you be confident of calculating the changing corner expectation for each additional variable, in this case Player X starting.

Get to work

Don't rock the boat, fred has been absurdly succesful on corners bets based on very thin statistical reasoning.

[tikay]

Gonna need to be a step ahead of the game if you want to beat corner markets Mr Kendall

I think its safe to say the odds compilers use the statistics to price the markets.

What you need to know is obscure stats- like if a team had a winger that never cut in and always went to the byline, corner expectation might be significantly higher if he is in the team. You could then look into statistics where Team A average 5.2 corners when he doesnt start and 7.4 corners if he does. Problem would then be sample size and statistical anomolies such as a large portion of games he starts are at home, against weaker sides, in cup games, opposition players were sent off etc. So only after studying every single game and the changing variables would you be confident of calculating the changing corner expectation for each additional variable, in this case Player X starting.

Get to work

I'm trying to.

I have been doing some Corner Markets (off-thread) for a while. I'm actually just guessing at outcomes, with limited insight. I generally get 10/11, & have had 13 winners from 22 bets, so I'm just about breaking even, maybe a tad better, but sample size means it counts for nought. I'm just curious to see if I can bring some stat-based evidence to bear.

Essentially, betting, say, "which half most Corners?" is a sheer guess. Instinctively, 2nd half seems better, & is always priced at 5/6 or 10/11, which is logical.

I am trying to bring some depth of thought or analysis to my guesswork. I doubt it's possible, but thought I'd try. 

[horseplayer]

found what i believe is a decent bet tonight

BELGIUM TO HAVE MOST CORNERS vs WALES tonight 10-11 with blue square

belgium averaged 7.5 corners per qualifying game last campaign, wales averaged 4.2

It is not hard to make the argument that belgium have probably improved again since then and wales have regressed.

You could argue why not just back belgium to win at a similar price but they still havent won the games they should have yet and i feel the corners bet offers more value.

suggest £40

horsey (or anyone else),

Where did you find those stats, please?

I want to have a look at various "Corner" markets, & the source of those stats sounds ideal.

there are various sites some that cost , the official uefa and fifa sites are pretty good as well

[horseplayer]

Gonna need to be a step ahead of the game if you want to beat corner markets Mr Kendall

I think its safe to say the odds compilers use the statistics to price the markets.

What you need to know is obscure stats- like if a team had a winger that never cut in and always went to the byline, corner expectation might be significantly higher if he is in the team. You could then look into statistics where Team A average 5.2 corners when he doesnt start and 7.4 corners if he does. Problem would then be sample size and statistical anomolies such as a large portion of games he starts are at home, against weaker sides, in cup games, opposition players were sent off etc. So only after studying every single game and the changing variables would you be confident of calculating the changing corner expectation for each additional variable, in this case Player X starting.

Get to work

Don't rock the boat, fred has been absurdly succesful on corners bets based on very thin statistical reasoning.

not sure if this is aimed at the belgium bet or not but anyway

backing a side that averages 3 more corners than its opposition over the past eighteen months (and growing in corners) at a shade of odds on is not guessing

[tikay]

Gonna need to be a step ahead of the game if you want to beat corner markets Mr Kendall

I think its safe to say the odds compilers use the statistics to price the markets.

What you need to know is obscure stats- like if a team had a winger that never cut in and always went to the byline, corner expectation might be significantly higher if he is in the team. You could then look into statistics where Team A average 5.2 corners when he doesnt start and 7.4 corners if he does. Problem would then be sample size and statistical anomolies such as a large portion of games he starts are at home, against weaker sides, in cup games, opposition players were sent off etc. So only after studying every single game and the changing variables would you be confident of calculating the changing corner expectation for each additional variable, in this case Player X starting.

Get to work

Actually....on reflection........that (enboldened) kills the whole theory.

Except.......

EVERY match is priced identically, or almost.

Only 2 "traditional" bookies make a Market in "Which half most corners?", being Paddy Power & William Hill.

For "2nd half", they only EVER quote one of two prices, being 5/6, & 10/11. 

See, for example.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/internationals/world-cup/n-ireland-v-luxembourg/half-with-most-corners

It just occurred to me that it cannot ALWAYS represent the correct, stat-based, price.

[tikay]

found what i believe is a decent bet tonight

BELGIUM TO HAVE MOST CORNERS vs WALES tonight 10-11 with blue square

belgium averaged 7.5 corners per qualifying game last campaign, wales averaged 4.2

It is not hard to make the argument that belgium have probably improved again since then and wales have regressed.

You could argue why not just back belgium to win at a similar price but they still havent won the games they should have yet and i feel the corners bet offers more value.

suggest £40

horsey (or anyone else),

Where did you find those stats, please?

I want to have a look at various "Corner" markets, & the source of those stats sounds ideal.

there are various sites some that cost , the official uefa and fifa sites are pretty good as well

Thanks horsey.

I don't mind paying (a sensible amount), but I'll try the EUFA & FIFA sites first.

[Dubai]

Teams that statistically perform well in first halfs compared to second against lower opposition would be a good starting point. If for example Man Utd when 1/3 or shorter at home had a known history of performing particularly well in the first half before habitually taking it easier in the second half when the game is won by having large amounts of possession with no real threat. That might make betting most corners in first half a longterm smallish winner

[tikay]

Teams that statistically perform well in first halfs compared to second against lower opposition would be a good starting point. If for example Man Utd when 1/3 or shorter at home had a known history of performing particularly well in the first half before habitually taking it easier in the second half when the game is won by having large amounts of possession with no real threat. That might make betting most corners in first half a longterm smallish winner

Thanks.

I would think that the bookies standard prices for every game of 5/6 or 10/11 (more 2nd half...) are stats-based on a huge sample of ALL games, not "Team A v Team B".

Detailed, match by match stats, surely, must throw up occasions when the true odds are, say, 8/11, or 5/4.

Sadly, "long term smallish winner", as you state, is about the nut outcome I suppose.

Think I ought to stick to other people's Tips.

[redarmi]

The problem with a market like this is one of comparing a small, possibly unrepresentative, sample against a bigger and probably more representative sample ie. one teams corners versus the whole corner population.  In order to assume that your sample size is the correct one you have to have a very, very compelling hypothesis.  Something like Dubai's reasoning may be a good one but the overwhelming problem is one of margin that the bookies bet to.  I think best case scenario you win a little bit and worst case you are doing 5-6% on the bets.

[henrik777]

You need somebody to trawl the web and collate the numbers in to a spreadsheet. I have thought of doing it but to cover 4 leagues in England plus Scotland and the Euro leagues would take a huge amount of time.

I don't think bookies use the stats correctly. Total numbers range from 9.5 - 12.5 but generally 10.5/11.5.

Handicaps are funny as are most corners as "big" teams get weighted even when the facts don't agree. Remember Denmark v Germany ? Germans favourite but the facts said no they are not. 12/5 Denmark as i recall.

Hard work but i think there is a big edge if someone collates the data and you can analyse them with the prices.

Sandy

[hector62]

Have people forgotten that we have an England football match tonight? During Euro 2012 there would have been 5 different bets put up by now on even the most obscure match. Am I the only person who thinks there will be few goals tonight and that under 2.5 goals could be worthy of consideration?

[horseplayer]

was going to put this up anyway but seems apt now!

FRANCE OVER 5.5 CORNERS V BELARUS  4-5 VCBET

reasoning=

since blanc has been in charge france have averaged 6 corners per game (just over)

in home games this comes in at about 7.5

in the corresponding shock victory for belarus last times these teams met it ended 12-2 to france

belarus were involved in 3 of the top 10 highest producing games in the euro qualifying campaign

in most recent evidence france averaged 7 corners a game in euro 2012 itself





there are other lines available but this looks more of a shoe in for mine anyway

suggest £35

the game is live on espn this evening

[tikay]

was going to put this up anyway but seems apt now!

FRANCE OVER 5.5 CORNERS V BELARUS  4-5 VCBET

reasoning=

since blanc has been in charge france have averaged 6 corners per game (just over)

in home games this comes in at about 7.5

in the corresponding shock victory for belarus last times these teams met it ended 12-2 to france

belarus were involved in 3 of the top 10 highest producing games in the euro qualifying campaign

in most recent evidence france averaged 7 corners a game in euro 2012 itself





there are other lines available but this looks more of a shoe in for mine anyway

suggest £35

the game is live on espn this evening

Like!

Thanks.

We have £35 @ 4/5 with Betvictor , France OVER 5.5 corners v Belarus tonight.

ON

Single Selections
France v Belarus
Over 5.5
(Corners - France)
Odds:  4/5
Stake:  35.00
Possible Return:  63.00

[tikay]

Have people forgotten that we have an England football match tonight? During Euro 2012 there would have been 5 different bets put up by now on even the most obscure match. Am I the only person who thinks there will be few goals tonight and that under 2.5 goals could be worthy of consideration?

I just think there is a general lack of interest in these early World Cup Qualifiers.