Tips for Tikay

[doubleup]

I'm aware that Fred doesn't do "tips" but this is for the St Leger where the shape of the race and the each way terms means you have to have a bet.
Guarantee is an improving horse with form over the Leger distance. Apparently Wm Haggas is having sleepless nights at the thought of beating Camelot. 16/1 and quarter odds at Paddies
Like to hear from the form judges cos this is a must bet race

Thanks!

To assist our experts on forming an opinion on that, here are the current St Leger odds. The race is tomorrow.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/st-leger

virtually anything with a chance will be a great ew bet - if and only if 3 places are paid.  So prob best to leave it fairly late to bet.

If PP etc are still going 1/4 odds tomorrow even better.

[tikay]

"Bad memory for me, I lost (this was over 10 years ago) a good deal of money on Spreads"

Yeah - I did as well many years ago.  Had to stop for a few years as it got to the stage where I would bet on every market on every match on the 1st round of Wimbledon and just sit there in a cloud of adrenaline.  Of course doing that means you absolutely do your pods on bid-offer so can't win. 

Anyhow after abstaining for a good few years I managed to get in a position where I can bet selectively and with a modicum of restraint.  The upside of my previous "adventures" back around 2002 is that I now have generous margin terms and unrestricted stakes.

Live and learn they say!

Wow - you nailed that perfectly, that was EXACTLY how it became.

To be fair, since I lapsed again, (into Betting) I have been a million times more disciplined, & - shock horror - I have made a goodly few bob, too. Those two factors may be connected.....

[tikay]

I'm aware that Fred doesn't do "tips" but this is for the St Leger where the shape of the race and the each way terms means you have to have a bet.
Guarantee is an improving horse with form over the Leger distance. Apparently Wm Haggas is having sleepless nights at the thought of beating Camelot. 16/1 and quarter odds at Paddies
Like to hear from the form judges cos this is a must bet race

Thanks!

To assist our experts on forming an opinion on that, here are the current St Leger odds. The race is tomorrow.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/st-leger

virtually anything with a chance will be a great ew bet - if and only if 3 places are paid.  So prob best to leave it fairly late to bet.

If PP etc are still going 1/4 odds tomorrow even better.

Well emphasised, thanks.

[rfgqqabc]

I'm aware that Fred doesn't do "tips" but this is for the St Leger where the shape of the race and the each way terms means you have to have a bet.
Guarantee is an improving horse with form over the Leger distance. Apparently Wm Haggas is having sleepless nights at the thought of beating Camelot. 16/1 and quarter odds at Paddies
Like to hear from the form judges cos this is a must bet race

Thanks!

To assist our experts on forming an opinion on that, here are the current St Leger odds. The race is tomorrow.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/flat/st-leger

virtually anything with a chance will be a great ew bet - if and only if 3 places are paid.  So prob best to leave it fairly late to bet.

If PP etc are still going 1/4 odds tomorrow even better.

Why wait when firms are first 3 1/4

[Bad Beat]

 Lots of firms are betting ew 1/4 and there are currently 9 runners. As you know if it goes down to 7 or less it will be 1/4 1,2.

 You can currently back ALL the horses ew and be guaranteed a profit on the race so I think it's virtually compulsory to have a bet.

 The only problem is getting on and not ruining your account.

 I would advise the thread to hit the shops on this one.

 Main Sequence and Michaelangelo ae the two where the Betfair win odds are closest to the price we can bet ew on so I would advise one or either of them. I quite like Main Sequence at 8/1.

 We get 8/1 the win instead of 12/1 on betfair (-ev to the tune of 3%ish). We get 2/1 the place instead of 6/5 Betfair (+ev to the tune of 14%ish).

 We can assume that the machine is all-knowing on a very mature liquid market and they have done the work for us.

[KarmaDope]

Lots of firms are betting ew 1/4 and there are currently 9 runners. As you know if it goes down to 7 or less it will be 1/4 1,2.

 You can currently back ALL the horses ew and be guaranteed a profit on the race so I think it's virtually compulsory to have a bet.

 The only problem is getting on and not ruining your account.

 I would advise the thread to hit the shops on this one.

 Main Sequence and Michaelangelo ae the two where the Betfair win odds are closest to the price we can bet ew on so I would advise one or either of them. I quite like Main Sequence at 8/1.

 We get 8/1 the win instead of 12/1 on betfair (-ev to the tune of 3%ish). We get 2/1 the place instead of 6/5 Betfair (+ev to the tune of 14%ish).

 We can assume that the machine is all-knowing on a very mature liquid market and they have done the work for us.

Forgive me for being a noob but if we back Main Sequence @ 8/1 EW now in the local bookie shop, do we still get 1/4 1,2,3 if it does go down to 7 runners after we place our bet?

[tikay]

Lots of firms are betting ew 1/4 and there are currently 9 runners. As you know if it goes down to 7 or less it will be 1/4 1,2.

 You can currently back ALL the horses ew and be guaranteed a profit on the race so I think it's virtually compulsory to have a bet.

 The only problem is getting on and not ruining your account.

 I would advise the thread to hit the shops on this one.

 Main Sequence and Michaelangelo ae the two where the Betfair win odds are closest to the price we can bet ew on so I would advise one or either of them. I quite like Main Sequence at 8/1.

 We get 8/1 the win instead of 12/1 on betfair (-ev to the tune of 3%ish). We get 2/1 the place instead of 6/5 Betfair (+ev to the tune of 14%ish).

 We can assume that the machine is all-knowing on a very mature liquid market and they have done the work for us.

Thsnks Neil.

Q1 - What if 2 horses withdraw, are we stymied then?

Q2 - Hit the shops? What, mix with the general public? Strewth, that's a bit strong mate.

Q3 - "Ruin our accounts". Why could we not (in theory) back 8 different horses with 8 different Online firms?

[Bad Beat]

 Great question Sharplea.

 It's like a poker question...it depends.

 If they are still betting "ante-post" we definitely will. You do your money if you back a non-runner but you get the odds advertised AND the place terms.

 If they have chosen to bet non-runner no bet you suffer Rule 4 on withdrawals (a deduction on your return proportionate to the price of the withdrawn horse or horses) and the place terms on the off come in.

 Would need to check with each bookie.

 

[doubleup]

PP for one seem to be antepost for their 1/4 odds

[Bad Beat]

 A one-off ew bet on the Leger on an account which has high turnover on lots of sports that was losing would not get your account closed.

 A bet on an account you don't use much that has backed the odd thing they have suffered on or one or two obscure pick-offs.

 You wouldn't even need to be winning.

 Imagine the conversation...

 "Look at this geezer. He fucked us on the Taylor match check-outs, he spots every rick we ever make on corners, he only ever wins on baseball and we can't work out how, he done us on Celeb Big Brother when we couldn't understand how people would vote for Clary and now he wants a filthy ew on the Leger".

 Easier to close accounts than try and control them.

[typhoon13]

Look at this geezer. He fucked us on the Taylor match check-outs, he spots every rick we ever make on corners, he only ever wins on baseball and we can't work out how, he done us on Celeb Big Brother when we couldn't understand how people would vote for Clary and now he wants a filthy ew on the Leger".

Nice one Neil

[Bad Beat]

 You can normally tell from the Betfair market if anything is likely to be a non-runner. I haven't read a paper or Twitter today but there don't seem to be too many doubts.

 Ladbrokes will definitely hold the 1/4 as they are the sponsor and they "need" to do it for PR and marketing purposes.

 

[tikay]

A one-off ew bet on the Leger on an account which has high turnover on lots of sports that was losing would not get your account closed.

 A bet on an account you don't use much that has backed the odd thing they have suffered on or one or two obscure pick-offs.

 You wouldn't even need to be winning.

 Imagine the conversation...

 "Look at this geezer. He fucked us on the Taylor match check-outs, he spots every rick we ever make on corners, he only ever wins on baseball and we can't work out how, he done us on Celeb Big Brother when we couldn't understand how people would vote for Clary and now he wants a filthy ew on the Leger".

 Easier to close accounts than try and control them.

Thanks, but you forget one thing.

Click to see full-size image.

[typhoon13]

A one-off ew bet on the Leger on an account which has high turnover on lots of sports that was losing would not get your account closed.

 A bet on an account you don't use much that has backed the odd thing they have suffered on or one or two obscure pick-offs.

 You wouldn't even need to be winning.

 Imagine the conversation...

 "Look at this geezer. He fucked us on the Taylor match check-outs, he spots every rick we ever make on corners, he only ever wins on baseball and we can't work out how, he done us on Celeb Big Brother when we couldn't understand how people would vote for Clary and now he wants a filthy ew on the Leger".

 Easier to close accounts than try and control them.

Thanks, but you forget one thing.

Click to see full-size image.

Had to Mega LOL

[TightEnd]

There is, I think, an outstanding bet in the CB40 final tomorrow

It being a September final the toss can be important, and this makes outright markets tricky

Instinctively I regarded Hampshire as the bigger hitting team. They are T20 champions after all

Warwickshire are the County Champions in the four day game. A team of accumulators. Strong line up, but not a team of thrashers

40 over cricket is a game of accumulation, especially in the dead middle overs post powerplay and before the thrash, and this accounts for Warwickshire's strength in this


Anyway, the research

In the CB40 this season both teams played 11 completed matches, group and semi final. Both had to play one Non FC team, Scotland and the Unicorns.

In those 11 games Hampshire hit 43 sixes. In five of the matches the six count was 7,6,5,5,5

In 11 completed games Warwickshire hit 22 sixes. On no occasion did they hit more than 3 sixes

This confirms what I say above

Hampshire more boom and bust, bigger hitters


I have to point out that Hampshire are missing Lumb and Maxwell, two of their strikers, who would have been playing all season

Warwickshire missing Trott, their arch-accumlator, who is not a six hitter

So, we have to allow for that. but....

We have one team averaging 3.95 sixes per match and the other 2.00 sixes a match over an 11 game sample size over the length of a season across all conditions and similar ranges of opponents

The team with this six hitting advantage should be odds on in this market tomorrow?


Well no, its 6/5 each of two, 4/1 the draw http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/domestic/cb40-league/hampshire-v-warwickshire/team-to-score-most-6s

With this bet we don't need to worry about losing the toss in September. No worries about weather.

In a vacuum Hampshire should be 4/5 here, in my opinion

Recommend £50 at 6/5 Hampshire to hit more sixes in the CB40 final tomorrow, multiple firms offer this price