Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

That really wasn't a max.  Good luck

Why not ?

Sandy

Wonder if the fact this is going to b a birdie fest means there will be a much wider spread of scores and hence halves are slightly less likely than normal?

The stats are there for everyone to see and the price is the price for a reason.

I am a bit wary of people who draw the line in a bunch of statistics at the most convenient number.

On one of my pre financial crisis projects I worked near somebody who was modelling corporate bond default rates.  They had a raft of data going back before the great depression.  Problem was that if you looked at the statistics going back to the end of the depression you got a very favourable result.  If you looked at the statistics going back through the depression, you got a very unpleasant result.  Of course it was easy to argue that the great depression was a statistical anomoly that could be ignored.  You'd be incorrect of course, but people in high places like pleasant results....  

Of course people in high places and their lobbyists will already be suggesting the recent financial crisis was an anomoly too.

If we look at the stats going back until 1997, we get a mean of 5.57 for the result.  We assume this is a poisson distribution and we find that we have backed an 8/15 shot at 8/11.  

If we add in that inconvenient 1995 result, we get a mean of 5.  We assume this is a poisson distribution and we find that we have backed an 4/5 shot at 8/11.  

If we keep adding previous results then our price gets progressively worse (bar tiny blips in 1991 and 1983).

Of course we could construct a hypothesis that the more recent results are more relevant and give them more weight, and doing so may make our price look better.

Either way it doesn't look a max bet.    

===

and of course what redarmi said too!

[tikay]

Roryyyyyyyyyy.....

[doubleup]

Red/Camel it is completely obvious that a lot of books are completely guessing.  Sky put EU at 1/1 for the foursomes.  As pointed out early the price for the foursomes tie was a huge rick.

I looked at the ties in the fourball/foursomes earlier in the thread and though that they might have been overpriced and I still can't find any reason to change this point of view.  

There is no way that the books are analysing these matches in depth, eg effect of low scoring.

[smashedagain]

Trying to watch golf but the Twenty20 is a thriller

[Rubbish2407]

Strictly for the superstitious amongst us.

Cardiff City, formerly the Bluebirds, now the Red Dragons, have had a much publicised change of kit. Out went the traditional Blue kit and in came the new Red one. This was all to do with the new Malaysian owners who firmly believe that Red is a lucky colour.

So far this season Cardiff have worn Blue twice, both losses, Black once, another loss and red five times, Four wins and a draw. They are home to Blackpool tomorrow and are playing in Red. You can get 7/5 for a home win.

I've had a lucky £15 on it (on three different sites, £45 in total). You know it makes sense.

[Tonji]

Distracted & baffled by fish distribution!

[Rubbish2407]

Another bet involving a Cardiff Club, this one in Rugby Union.

I believe Camel mentioned before about clubs over achieving after a tragedy had befallen them.

Ulster make their first appearance since the tragic death of Centre, Nevin Spence, as well as his Brother and Father. I'm sure the game will be quite emotional for most of the players and I would guess that Ulster will be looking to chalk up a win in Nevin's memory. You can get 6/4 for Ulster which is a great price seeing as their last meaningful game against the Blues was a 20-3 home win last year. They lost 21-14 at Cardiff last season but that match was bang in the middle of the six nations so a lot of players were missing.

I'm going along to the game and will probably have an unpatriotic £30 on the Ulstermen.

[RickBFA]

I have been looking at the corners handicap for Man Utd at home.

Last season, Man Utd averaged 8.89 corners to the oppositions 3.42 corners. An average positive of 5.47 corners per game.

In games against their closest rivals (Arsenal,Chelsea,Man City and Liverpool) the stats change. Man Utd had 18 corners and the opposition 22 corners. An enormous difference.

If you remove these close/intense games from last season's stats and analyse the corners against weaker opposition you find Man Utd average 10.07 corners per game and the opponents 2.86 corners. An average positive of 7.21 corners per game.

On saturday, Bet365 have Man Utd -3 corners at 21/20 against Spurs.

Give the stats above, this looks like value and I'm on.

I'd recommend a bet on this but perhaps you will get some feedback on my thoughts.

So Spurs aren't a close rival and Liverpool are?  I expect the gap to close under their current managers.  The gap closes vs better sides, and Spurs are one of the better sides.  Gap is 6 against bad sides and zero against the best, 3 doesn't feel out of line here?

Interestingly, last season Man Utd had 8 more corners than Spurs at Old Trafford last season.

There is an intensity that comes with a Liverpool vs Man Utd that doesn't happen in the same way against Spurs.

A derby game has a completely different dynamic  which changes the game.

Even if you want to disregard Liverpool in the figures, the stats still stand up.

I think the bet at 21/20 is value.

[The Camel]

I have been looking at the corners handicap for Man Utd at home.

Last season, Man Utd averaged 8.89 corners to the oppositions 3.42 corners. An average positive of 5.47 corners per game.

In games against their closest rivals (Arsenal,Chelsea,Man City and Liverpool) the stats change. Man Utd had 18 corners and the opposition 22 corners. An enormous difference.

If you remove these close/intense games from last season's stats and analyse the corners against weaker opposition you find Man Utd average 10.07 corners per game and the opponents 2.86 corners. An average positive of 7.21 corners per game.

On saturday, Bet365 have Man Utd -3 corners at 21/20 against Spurs.

Give the stats above, this looks like value and I'm on.

I'd recommend a bet on this but perhaps you will get some feedback on my thoughts.

So Spurs aren't a close rival and Liverpool are?  I expect the gap to close under their current managers.  The gap closes vs better sides, and Spurs are one of the better sides.  Gap is 6 against bad sides and zero against the best, 3 doesn't feel out of line here?

Interestingly, last season Man Utd had 8 more corners than Spurs at Old Trafford last season.

There is an intensity that comes with a Liverpool vs Man Utd that doesn't happen in the same way against Spurs.

A derby game has a completely different dynamic  which changes the game.

Even if you want to disregard Liverpool in the figures, the stats still stand up.

I think the bet at 21/20 is value.

I would think team selection is a massive factor in this bet.

Where will Bale play? Does Valencia start?

[doubleup]

As a general stat a team priced at <1.5 can be expected to win 7.8 corners at home and an away team priced >5 can be expected to win 3.9 corners.

[tonytats]

The dogs were a tip from a m8 he got 5/6 last night a 6 n 7 dog accumulator up last Thursday for 13.5 k

[hector62]

Mr Tikay. You may have to be quick following your nap but it looks like 3G is going to play in the fourballs. We have supported him through his rise to stardom and in this his biggest match of his life I really think we should show some solidarity. The wide open spaces and long course will suit him so just wait till the pairings are announced and suggest £20 on the greatest golfer from Genk, just for the craic.

Rumour has it that Dr Noh is there to support him too !

[hector62]

Don't ever forget Mr Tikay this is matchplay and in matchplay he fears no one.

[hector62]

6's scores after 1st round of matches in the group stage.

Australia          19
West Indies    18
England          18
New Zealand    18
Pakistan          17
Sri Lanka           9
South  Africa     7
India                 7

[rfgqqabc]

6's scores after 1st round of matches in the group stage.

Australia          19
West Indies    18
England          18
New Zealand    18
Pakistan          17
Sri Lanka           9
South  Africa     7
India                 7

I never managed to get a 6's bet on but England and Pakistan always looked ok with the places. Glad I never got on sl though. Aftertime for the win