Tips for Tikay

[AceHighSuited]

Leg breaker my arse. 

The first foul was on Tiote and the ref should have dealt with that and he wouldn't been kicking out, but even at that wasn't that bad.  See worse every other week. 

[horseplayer]

corner bet down in 90th minute

tbf if the ref had been awake it would have been down a lot earlier than that

[Doobs]

I assume newcastles price this weekend will be wrong, let me tell ou why.

The bookies will overprice Sunderland because they havnt lost often this season and underprice Newcastle because of a slowish start.

Our whole core f our team comes from Krul/colocini, both are back fit.

The main thing is that Sunderland baby lost much but they've been fixkong awful long forward. As its a derby there fans will push for them to attack, they won't be comfortable and if we can hold them out Ben arfa and ba can really punish them on the break.

Im pretty sure this is one of the little things that bookmakers won't take into account but last year we murdered west brom in very similar circumstances all of our goals coming from against the run of play.

Newcastle just above 2/1 on Betfair, which suggests they have them close to even in ability.   Bookies adjust to current form slowly, so they aren't assuming Sunderland are the better team yet.

Quite an interesting game this, I think, & current form often goes out of the window in this one.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/sunderland-v-newcastle/winner

As the nipper is kipping, I have run some stats on the tikay hypothesis.

Since the advent of 3 points for a win, the two teams have met 22 times in the league.

There have been 6 home wins, 9 draws and 7 away wins.  This suggests that draws and away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland have only won 3 of those encounters.

When I took it back to the first world war, I got 84 results.  There were 36 home wins, 28 draws and 20 aways. Looking at these stats, I'd be less confident that the away wins happen more than you'd expect.  Sunderland won 22 of these games.  Pre the first world war Sunderland were the best side.

I wouldn't be rushing to back Sunderland.  I am not so confident in the away win stat. 

Draws just feel more likely in local derbies, and the teams feel closely matched right now.  The stats seem to back up my initial thoughts on local derbies, but I haven't got the time to run them all.

Anyway, Pinnacle are offering 12/5 the draw, and I am estimating the odds should be something like 2/1 or lower.

Of course these markets should be close to perfect and the big syndicates should have better models than the botched stats I have done above.  Regardless of this, I have spent some time on this, so feel the need to bet.  I have backed the draw at 2.4 on betfair as I am a creature of habit and can't be bothered opening a pinnacle account.  23/10 is available in a few spots for those that haven't got pinnacle or get stung for 5%/premium charge on betfair.

I have assumed that there is no real difference between Sunderland playing at Roker Park or the Stadium of Light and no difference between Newcastle playing at St James' Park and the Sports Direct Arena. 
 
FWIW If I run beyond the first world war, the stats aren't so compelling, but I just imagine the games were more one sided back then, maybe tikay can provide some reminiscences about this period to help us out?

Thanks Doobsy. Hard to resist when your research goes back to World War 1.

Exactly mirroring your logic, £40 @ 23/10 with Boyles, Newcastle - v Sunderland to DRAW

ON

Bet ref: 44/43 Draw @ 23/10
Sunderland v Newcastle
Match Betting
Total stake £20.00
Estimated return £66.00

I guess this counts as half a boom.  A bo as it were. 

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr Tikay. After yesterdays result I think I shall have to remove myself from the seat marked "rugby expert". I shall be able to make you laugh though. Mr Bad Beat put up a tip for the Saracens/ Racing Metro game yesterday and you wrote that myself or Mr Tightend may have an opinion. Well due to final tabling an 800 runner MTT, which finished way past my bedtime and then being kept awake by an owl hooting, I was not feeling very sharp so didn't comment. The bet looked sound to me though. Mr Bad Beat had been looking out of his window at the  constant rain all week, a heavy pitch would mean that points would be at a premium so the draw at half time was good in theory. The only problem being that I found out today that the match was not played at Watford but was at Brussels in Belgium as part of the expanding game jobbie!

[pleno1]

What a fuckibg joke ref.

Not one yellow for scumberland, and diabolical especially from such a bunch of dirty dirty players.

If we could play then again with 11 men id put my net worth on 2-1, they didn't have a shot on target ffs.

[pleno1]

Demba Ba Sunderlands 2nd top scorer in the League ffs

[ripple11]

my mate has written a story for tomoro's sunday star or whatever it's called and tweeted it tonight. Basically the fave to get the chop in X Factor, Chris Maloney, has actually been the top vote getter in the first two weeks (and was voted into the programme by viewers). Seems an easy lay to get the boot tomoro at 3.85 on betty. He went first tonight, traditionally bad news, but this year they open the voting lines at the beginning of the prog, rather than after the last singer, so that should negate that disadvantage. There must be value in backing someone else to go too, but for now I'd lay the 3.85

Your mate says:
In week one, Chris bagged more than double the votes of his nearest rivals Jahmene Douglas, 21, and Ella Henderson, 16, while last week he bagged a quarter of the vote, 10% more than Jahmene in second place.

No reason to doubt his sources........but I'm amazed by those figures. He is as low as 6/4 to be in the bottom two tonight.

Lucky Fred doesn't read these posts....

[youthnkzR]

kye to get the boot @ 13/2 seems the stand out bet for me

[Bazzaboy]

Another win for MVG today.

[scotty2hatty]

kye to get the boot @ 13/2 seems the stand out bet for me

He's 12/1?

[OverTheBorder]

kye to get the boot @ 13/2 seems the stand out bet for me

He's 12/1?

Not anymore I would guess!

[JaffaCake]

my mate has written a story for tomoro's sunday star or whatever it's called and tweeted it tonight. Basically the fave to get the chop in X Factor, Chris Maloney, has actually been the top vote getter in the first two weeks (and was voted into the programme by viewers). Seems an easy lay to get the boot tomoro at 3.85 on betty. He went first tonight, traditionally bad news, but this year they open the voting lines at the beginning of the prog, rather than after the last singer, so that should negate that disadvantage. There must be value in backing someone else to go too, but for now I'd lay the 3.85

Your mate says:
In week one, Chris bagged more than double the votes of his nearest rivals Jahmene Douglas, 21, and Ella Henderson, 16, while last week he bagged a quarter of the vote, 10% more than Jahmene in second place.

No reason to doubt his sources........but I'm amazed by those figures. He is as low as 6/4 to be in the bottom two tonight.

Lucky Fred doesn't read these posts....

Yeh I was amazed too, but his sources are all correct, the tv show send them the figs with an embargo that they won't publish the whole list (or it may affect voting, say your fave is always getting 50% of the vote, why spend your money) and they have to check with them if they write a story like today's. The tv people like to feed them info to keep the show in the papers but obv have to be careful not to stop people voting and paying the bills.

Anyways, weighed in, weighed in, presume Fred got the lot

[youthnkzR]

kye to get the boot @ 13/2 seems the stand out bet for me

He's 12/1?

Not anymore I would guess!

disgusting, cant belive kye stayed on over MK1 - however charlie from MK1 seemed to bottle the sing-off a bit

[TightEnd]

Minnesota 21, Arizona 14

I am assuming you got a "push" on this, as it hit the spread exactly?

[jakally]

Minnesota 21, Arizona 14

I am assuming you got a "push" on this, as it hit the spread exactly?

Yes, was a push.
Good shout from Channing regards waiting for the line to move.