Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Psephology is the study of voting, though, which is what we are really doing.

Apart from Ohio, I read that the latest polling gives Obama +3% in Florida

From previous debacles of hanging chads and the like, if he gets Florida and Cali then we're pretty much home and hosed in the battle between the forces of good and evil US style, are we not?

[Tal]

Dortmund beat Madrid

[AndrewT]

At least with this years election there's no chance of the shenanigans that happened in the Bush/Gore election.

It's not as if the company that is providing the voting machines in Ohio has links to Romney's campaign donors and, specifically, his son Tagg.

Oh wait...

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/ohio-voting-machines--brought-to-you-by-the-romneys-8225216.html

[TightEnd]

Dortmund beat Madrid

Was a great shout by Maldini

Really really good, thank you

[AndrewT]

Psephology is the study of voting, though, which is what we are really doing.

Apart from Ohio, I read that the latest polling gives Obama +3% in Florida

From previous debacles of hanging chads and the like, if he gets Florida and Cali then we're pretty much home and hosed in the battle between the forces of good and evil US style, are we not?

Florida should go to Romney - as much as I said Obama had the edge in campaigning on the ground, Florida is one place that is working for Romney (Jeb Bush is still running things down there)

[horseplayer]

best league in the world this.....


oops

[tikay]

Dortmund beat Madrid

Was a great shout by Maldini

Really really good, thank you

^^^^

12/5 shot, too.

[TightEnd]

Six Cowboys players do not practice, including RBs Felix Jones and DeMarco Murray: IRVING — Six Cowboys players ... http://bit.ly/RDL6tP

[maldini32]

best league in the world this.....


oops

Having a debate with a few mates on twitter on same subject.

[horseplayer]

best league in the world this.....


oops

Having a debate with a few mates on twitter on same subject.

brilliant tweet from the excellent david conn just now

"So those naïve German football clubs, owned by supporters, cheap tickets, safe standing areas, seem to be doing OK in modern football?"

[AndrewT]

OK - I've had a butchers (and an hour playing around with an interactive map of the US).

Having a bet at 1.55 is clearly no fun - something a bit more puntworthy is called for.

We think Obama is going to win and probably lean towards a victory which may not be on a knifeedge. To win, he needs 270 electoral college votes.

Now, there is a peculiarity with the way the odds are (only Betfair and Ladbrokes are offering odds on this - Laddies have a guy called Matthew who does their politics stuff). Here's the current prices (Ladbrokes, then Betfair - BF only offer one group price on Obama getting fewer than 310 votes)

Obama 270-289 - 7/2
Obama 290-309 - 4/1
Obama 310-329 - 8/1 (5.3)
Obama 330-349 - 7/2 (6.6)
Obama 350-369 - 25/1 (32)

Those seem strange prices on Ladbrokes for 310-329 and 330-349.

Obama to win fewer votes is shorter so, as you would expect, the Betfair prices get longer as Obama gets more votes, as they are less likely, right? Just as if Man Utd are shortest price to win by 1 goal in a game, the price for them to win by 3 will be bigger than by 2, and 4 bigger than to win by 3 and so on. So why is that 7/2 so short and 8/1 so long?

The reason is Florida. That is a state with a lot of people, so it has 29 EC votes. If Obama has, say 303 EC votes (perfectly achievable), then wins Florida, that moves him to 332, completely bypassing the 310-329 band. If Obama has done well enough to get above 300, then there's a good chance he's done well enough in Florida to win that (they're related contingencies) so will zoom past 310-329. Matthew at Ladbrokes knows this, which is why he's priced it short. Betfair layers are just using their normal model for these type of spread bets, so they've missed it.

Therefore, recommend £30 on Obama to win 330-349 electoral college votes at 6.6 on Betfair.

[AceHighSuited]

best league in the world this.....


oops

Having a debate with a few mates on twitter on same subject.

brilliant tweet from the excellent david conn just now

"So those naïve German football clubs, owned by supporters, cheap tickets, safe standing areas, seem to be doing OK in modern football?"

And its more exciting that the EPL imo.  I absolutely love watching Bundesliga.    I have done for years but, certainly over the last 5 years its gone from strength to strength. 

[Doobs]

best league in the world this.....


oops

Having a debate with a few mates on twitter on same subject.

brilliant tweet from the excellent david conn just now

"So those naïve German football clubs, owned by supporters, cheap tickets, safe standing areas, seem to be doing OK in modern football?"

Presumably the three English winners of the Champions league since the last German one show that indebted owners, expensive tickets and all seater stadia are the way forward?

[doubleup]

OK - I've had a butchers (and an hour playing around with an interactive map of the US).

Having a bet at 1.55 is clearly no fun - something a bit more puntworthy is called for.

We think Obama is going to win and probably lean towards a victory which may not be on a knifeedge. To win, he needs 270 electoral college votes.

Now, there is a peculiarity with the way the odds are (only Betfair and Ladbrokes are offering odds on this - Laddies have a guy called Matthew who does their politics stuff). Here's the current prices (Ladbrokes, then Betfair - BF only offer one group price on Obama getting fewer than 310 votes)

Obama 270-289 - 7/2
Obama 290-309 - 4/1
Obama 310-329 - 8/1 (5.3)
Obama 330-349 - 7/2 (6.6)
Obama 350-369 - 25/1 (32)

Those seem strange prices on Ladbrokes for 310-329 and 330-349.

Obama to win fewer votes is shorter so, as you would expect, the Betfair prices get longer as Obama gets more votes, as they are less likely, right? Just as if Man Utd are shortest price to win by 1 goal in a game, the price for them to win by 3 will be bigger than by 2, and 4 bigger than to win by 3 and so on. So why is that 7/2 so short and 8/1 so long?

The reason is Florida. That is a state with a lot of people, so it has 29 EC votes. If Obama has, say 303 EC votes (perfectly achievable), then wins Florida, that moves him to 332, completely bypassing the 310-329 band. If Obama has done well enough to get above 300, then there's a good chance he's done well enough in Florida to win that (they're related contingencies) so will zoom past 310-329. Matthew at Ladbrokes knows this, which is why he's priced it short. Betfair layers are just using their normal model for these type of spread bets, so they've missed it.

Therefore, recommend £30 on Obama to win 330-349 electoral college votes at 6.6 on Betfair.

excellent spot unfortunately liquidity is appalling in the market other than <310

[tikay]

OK - I've had a butchers (and an hour playing around with an interactive map of the US).

Having a bet at 1.55 is clearly no fun - something a bit more puntworthy is called for.

We think Obama is going to win and probably lean towards a victory which may not be on a knifeedge. To win, he needs 270 electoral college votes.

Now, there is a peculiarity with the way the odds are (only Betfair and Ladbrokes are offering odds on this - Laddies have a guy called Matthew who does their politics stuff). Here's the current prices (Ladbrokes, then Betfair - BF only offer one group price on Obama getting fewer than 310 votes)

Obama 270-289 - 7/2
Obama 290-309 - 4/1
Obama 310-329 - 8/1 (5.3)
Obama 330-349 - 7/2 (6.6)
Obama 350-369 - 25/1 (32)

Those seem strange prices on Ladbrokes for 310-329 and 330-349.

Obama to win fewer votes is shorter so, as you would expect, the Betfair prices get longer as Obama gets more votes, as they are less likely, right? Just as if Man Utd are shortest price to win by 1 goal in a game, the price for them to win by 3 will be bigger than by 2, and 4 bigger than to win by 3 and so on. So why is that 7/2 so short and 8/1 so long?

The reason is Florida. That is a state with a lot of people, so it has 29 EC votes. If Obama has, say 303 EC votes (perfectly achievable), then wins Florida, that moves him to 332, completely bypassing the 310-329 band. If Obama has done well enough to get above 300, then there's a good chance he's done well enough in Florida to win that (they're related contingencies) so will zoom past 310-329. Matthew at Ladbrokes knows this, which is why he's priced it short. Betfair layers are just using their normal model for these type of spread bets, so they've missed it.

Therefore, recommend £30 on Obama to win 330-349 electoral college votes at 6.6 on Betfair.

Good grief - that is excellent. And EXACTLY what Fred is about.

No hesitation, no discussion, we are on.

£30 @ 6.6 with Betfair, Obama 330-349.

ON

 USA / 2012 Presidential Election / Obama Electoral College Votes  330 - 349 Back 22960553248  24-Oct-12
22:51    6.6 30.00  6.6 24-Oct-12 22:51