Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Bad Beat,

Any thoughts on the Tampa +6.5 line tonight please?

[horseplayer]

bet suggestion

DNIPRO team to score first v napoli tonight 4-5 vcbet £55

reasoning

Dnipro are 2-2 in europa league and have had a good start to the season again

Most importantly gazzetta report that the napoli team will be without Cavani (3), Inler (1) on the bench, Hamsik (1) suspended, Lavezzi (1) gone.

That is the 6 goals scored away this season all removed from the team

[TightEnd]

I have sent this to bobby1, who I believe is in Minnesota for tonight's game

Only back it if one of the shrewd ones thinks I am not way off beam please, as its a bit contrarian


Ponder (Minnesota QB) passing yards tonight 10/11 over 240

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers-at-minnesota-vikings/total-passing-yds-christian-ponder

its a very low quote, because he had a terrible game vs Ariz at the weekend

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/13966/christian-ponder

However

a) he has weapons, Harvin notably but also Simpson, Jenkins and serviceable TE (Rudolph gets 30-50 yds per game receiving)

b) Tampa have one of the worst pass defenses in the league

(ranked 31st of 32, conceded 323 passing yds on ave)

C) Tampa stop the run. 3rd ranked in the league, and have two top ten draft picks in the defense, one McCoy at DT and Barron a thumper safety...so teams throw more...

Tampa have to stop Adrian Peterson. Everyone knows that. 7-8 defenders are going to be in the box

the split of that ranking/passing yards week by week vs Tampa so far this season is

Newton 303y
Eli 510y
Romo 283y
RG3 323y
Brady Quinn 180y
Brees 377y

Lets remove Brady Quinn as a) backup QB essentially b) Kansas City poor passing offense.

The rest all torch 245yds, even Romo behind that Dallas OL beat it

Ponder? Not elite, but 245yds gives scope to beat it. 245 is a low quote.

[kukushkin88]

I have sent this to bobby1, who I believe is in Minnesota for tonight's game

Only back it if one of the shrewd ones thinks I am not way off beam please, as its a bit contrarian


Ponder (Minnesota QB) passing yards tonight 10/11 over 240

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/tampa-bay-buccaneers-at-minnesota-vikings/total-passing-yds-christian-ponder

its a very low quote, because he had a terrible game vs Ariz at the weekend

http://espn.go.com/nfl/player/gamelog/_/id/13966/christian-ponder

However

a) he has weapons, Harvin notably but also Simpson, Jenkins and serviceable TE (Rudolph gets 30-50 yds per game receiving)

b) Tampa have one of the worst pass defenses in the league

(ranked 31st of 32, conceded 323 passing yds on ave)

C) Tampa stop the run. 3rd ranked in the league, and have two top ten draft picks in the defense, one McCoy at DT and Barron a thumper safety...so teams throw more...

Tampa have to stop Adrian Peterson. Everyone knows that. 7-8 defenders are going to be in the box

the split of that ranking/passing yards week by week vs Tampa so far this season is

Newton 303y
Eli 510y
Romo 283y
RG3 323y
Brady Quinn 180y
Brees 377y

Lets remove Brady Quinn as a) backup QB essentially b) Kansas City poor passing offense.

The rest all torch 245yds, even Romo behind that Dallas OL beat it

Ponder? Not elite, but 245yds gives scope to beat it. 245 is a low quote.

Yeah I'm in agreement with this, if they don't get pressure and they almost never do then even Ponder can comfortably go >245. Seems like a good bet. FWIW I also like Kyle Rudolph at 12/1 first TD with Hills, Peterson a bit short in this market against a team that won't give up many yards on the ground and Rudolph is the preferred red zone target.

[redarmi]

bet suggestion

DNIPRO team to score first v napoli tonight 4-5 vcbet £55

reasoning

Dnipro are 2-2 in europa league and have had a good start to the season again

Most importantly gazzetta report that the napoli team will be without Cavani (3), Inler (1) on the bench, Hamsik (1) suspended, Lavezzi (1) gone.

That is the 6 goals scored away this season all removed from the team

Like yesterdays game isn't this more of a reason to bet unders or even under Napoli's goals rather than Dnipro to score first?

[bobby1]

That was spooky Rich as I had just replied to you.

[TightEnd]

That was spooky Rich as I had just replied to you.

thanks

some of the feedback was

"I went thru the Minny game last night and thought those Ponder yards were pretty tricky, I watched their game closely at the weekend and tho it had no bearing on his totals going forward as they were running in the game with a decent lead it was interesting to see what looked to be a lack of confidence in him after the 2 INT he threw when in his own 20. They really were big mistakes."

and considering it a bit of an in game call..ie if they are winning, AP grinds it out in the run game, if not, Ponder will have to fling it about

So will ponder (no pun intended) that on a freezing touchline shortly!

[horseplayer]

the market has yet again moved for liverpool

shock!

[tikay]

That was spooky Rich as I had just replied to you.

thanks

some of the feedback was

"I went thru the Minny game last night and thought those Ponder yards were pretty tricky, I watched their game closely at the weekend and tho it had no bearing on his totals going forward as they were running in the game with a decent lead it was interesting to see what looked to be a lack of confidence in him after the 2 INT he threw when in his own 20. They really were big mistakes."

and considering it a bit of an in game call..ie if they are winning, AP grinds it out in the run game, if not, Ponder will have to fling it about

So will ponder (no pun intended) that on a freezing touchline shortly!

Rich, Kuku

That NFL suggestion.

I am assuming - for now - it is NOT a bet? Correct?

I have to sign offline in the next 20 minutes, as I am working tonight, but if we decide to do that NFL bet, or something else on that game, I can place it after Midnight, when I get back Online. (0030 roughly).

[tikay]

bet suggestion

DNIPRO team to score first v napoli tonight 4-5 vcbet £55

reasoning

Dnipro are 2-2 in europa league and have had a good start to the season again

Most importantly gazzetta report that the napoli team will be without Cavani (3), Inler (1) on the bench, Hamsik (1) suspended, Lavezzi (1) gone.

That is the 6 goals scored away this season all removed from the team

I need some help with this guys. I quite like the bet, but reds feels we could bet it as "Unders".

Thoughts please, & within 20 minutes if possible.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/dnipro-v-napoli/team-to-score-first


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/europa-league/dnipro-v-napoli/over-under-2.5

[tikay]

Value Alert

It may not win, it probably won't, you may not even like it.

But VC Midweek bundle tonight is Liverpool/Lazio/Newcastle/Spurs @ 15/1

Taking the best prices available at 1:20pm

Liverpool 21/20
Spurs 8/11
Newcastle 4/6
Lazio 11/10

Makes it only a 11/1 shot ish, and those prices are not with the same bookie.

Liverpool will play a strong-ish team tonight too, and Panathinakos are in dire straits.

£20 here will be plenty

Sorry Dwayne, I've been to bed this afternoon, & completely missed that price - it is now 11/1.....!

Well done you, hope all 4 win.

I can't back it at 11/1 though.




http://www.betvictor.com/sports/en/europa-league-zone

[kukushkin88]

Good Evening,

Yeah best left alone with Bobby's input, can't find much in the game I like without it other than I do think Kyle Rudolph at 12/1 with Hills first TD is still a pretty good bet.

Recommend £5 Kyle Rudolph First TD with William Hill @12/1.

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr Tikay. Dr Noh got them right where he wants them - 2 shots behind but another 3 rounds to go. Slowly slowly catchee....

I know Mr Tikay likes to think of himself as an ice cream salesman. Well I pride myself on being the wholesaler who supplies him with his wares.

I am going to open the debate on a football match tonight. In this thread it has been proposed for a while that Liverpool are consistently being over rated by the layers. Tonight they play Anzhi, the team currently top of the Russian league and also the richest team in world football. Coincidence? Liverpool lost at home to Udinese whilst Anzhi drew with them in Italy. Liverpool have played weakened teams in this competition already and on Sunday they have to play Everton. Which game is most important to Liverpool ?

I have often written that I can not prove that a price is wrong but to my mind getting 3-1 for Anzhi is a good bet. Now feel free to pull my suggestion to bits as I am off to bake a cake.

Thoughts anyone?

Not sure we have enough info or value to bet.

Dr Noh - yes, I took a look earlier, we are handily placed.


http://www.pgatour.com/leaderboards/current/r494/

[tikay]

Good Evening,

Yeah best left alone with Bobby's input, can't find much in the game I like without it other than I do think Kyle Rudolph at 12/1 with Hills first TD is still a pretty good bet.

Recommend £5 Kyle Rudolph First TD with William Hill @12/1.

Perfect - thanks.

Great value for a fiver, & we have something to watch.

£5 @ 12/1 (William Hill) Kyle Rudolph, First TD.


ON

26 Oct 2012 - Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Minnesota Vikings - First Touchdown Scorer

Kyle Rudolph @ 12/1

Stake : £5.00


Estimated Returns : £65.00Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000130/F

[Tal]

Anyone leave this lying around?



5.1 a spurs win on betfair. £10 investment in hope of an AVB rollocking at half time.