Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Crikey, I have half a day Offline & Fred puts on a bunch of pages.

Apologies I've been a little tardy with Fred bets etc this week, been incredibly busy.

Still got three days of hecticness next door, but the pressure should ease, so the Fred catch-Up starts here.   

[TightEnd]

Do you know if McGoldrick is ruled out for Coventry or are Forest ok him playing?

Dunno. I know more about Arlesey!

[tikay]

I think we should close the Wiggins SPOTY lay.  He is in the line up for I am a celebrity get me out of here(reality tv gubbins)  This will boost him at the right time.  I can't see him looking a right cock in that so should close a t the current 1.82 on Betfair for a small profit.  You do this by backing him to win at 1.82 (ask mere!).

Should add that I have greened out personally.

DONE!

I had a little panic when I attempted to green out, as I could not trace the bet - it was not there.

As usual when I get in a muddle, I sent a note to Vince, who then immediately renminded me that the bet was placed by HIM, on my behalf, as I was in Vegas (happy memories, ahh....) at the time.

Tomorrow's Spreadsheet (NOT today's) will reflect the greening out.

Thanks. 

[class]

Tighty, as I know nothing about Arlesey I was wondering, if they have a rich sugar daddy funding them, how comes they are not tearing their league apart at the moment? I would have expected them in the top 3 at least (although they do have games in hand on some teams) Do they have a realistic chance at the Ricoh, or are we value hunting here?

[kukushkin88]

Tighty, as I know nothing about Arlesey I was wondering, if they have a rich sugar daddy funding them, how comes they are not tearing their league apart at the moment? I would have expected them in the top 3 at least (although they do have games in hand on some teams) Do they have a realistic chance at the Ricoh, or are we value hunting here?

Value hunting is all you should ever be trying to do if you want to make money. There isn't another way to make money betting.

[tikay]

Tighty, as I know nothing about Arlesey I was wondering, if they have a rich sugar daddy funding them, how comes they are not tearing their league apart at the moment? I would have expected them in the top 3 at least (although they do have games in hand on some teams) Do they have a realistic chance at the Ricoh, or are we value hunting here?

Value hunting is all you should ever be trying to do if you want to make money. There isn't another way to make money betting.

I think we WILL Value-Hunt here, too - just need help in deciding if we should go for the Coventry Lay, the 11/1 outright, or even that suggestion of Arseley to score.

Any thoughts?

[TightEnd]

Arlesey came together quite late, the team is quite new and didn't really have a pre-season together. The finance was not available last year, when the team almost got relegated

They are completely unexposed to league football followers, and partially to odds-setters, I contend

(for example Shane Blackett, a name that will mean nothing to anyone, joined after week one...a central defender who played league and conference for Luton until the end of last season. Similarly Sol Davis a left back with the same pedigree)

Not that you can bet on it, but they are regarded as the favourites for the Evostik Southern Prem with this current line up


I think they might win. In an otherwise unispring draw for potential upsets, its the one bet I am putting up for the round.

[tikay]

some breeders cup analysis and thoughts tikay i will leave any bet amounts to you



I really like Zagora in the F&M Turf http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-filly-and-mare-turf. This isn't an easy race for European horses to win and I don't think The Fugue is as good as any of the previous winners, although she looks a perfect type for the race. Zagora is too, though - she's got an excellent turn of foot and ran a massive figure in the Ballston Spa. Needs firm ground, but still ran great on yielding behind Nahrain last time. 20/1 looks offensive. Don't like Ridasiyna at all - conditions will be different in every regard from Longchamp.

I liked how Flashy Ways did the job last time. Got the perfect trip there, but quickened up well and powered through the line. Might be tricky to beat Sky Lantern - not a bad price herself at - but she's 16s or so and worth a chance. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-juvenile-fillies-turf

Finally, thought George Vancouver could move up massively now he encounters firm ground. Ran as well as could be expected last time, and I consider his form to be the best. Mile should be ok on a sharp track. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-juvenile-turf

Sorry for delayed response horsey.

So......

Zagora - which runs TONIGHT - is down to 14/1 best. Is that still worth a small interest, & if so, win or ew?

Flashy's Way - also tonight - is 16/1 best. Win, or ew?

George Vancouver - TOMORROW - is 8/1 best. Win, or EW?

Sorry for all the questions, I need spoon-feeding sometimes.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 4.05pm, Friday November 2nd

PROFIT on Month = £60.00

Unsettled Bets  - £627.50


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

[horseplayer]

some breeders cup analysis and thoughts tikay i will leave any bet amounts to you



I really like Zagora in the F&M Turf http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-filly-and-mare-turf. This isn't an easy race for European horses to win and I don't think The Fugue is as good as any of the previous winners, although she looks a perfect type for the race. Zagora is too, though - she's got an excellent turn of foot and ran a massive figure in the Ballston Spa. Needs firm ground, but still ran great on yielding behind Nahrain last time. 20/1 looks offensive. Don't like Ridasiyna at all - conditions will be different in every regard from Longchamp.

I liked how Flashy Ways did the job last time. Got the perfect trip there, but quickened up well and powered through the line. Might be tricky to beat Sky Lantern - not a bad price herself at - but she's 16s or so and worth a chance. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-juvenile-fillies-turf

Finally, thought George Vancouver could move up massively now he encounters firm ground. Ran as well as could be expected last time, and I consider his form to be the best. Mile should be ok on a sharp track. http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/breeders-cup/breeders-cup-juvenile-turf

Sorry for delayed response horsey.

So......

Zagora - which runs TONIGHT - is down to 14/1 best. Is that still worth a small interest, & if so, win or ew?

Flashy's Way - also tonight - is 16/1 best. Win, or ew?

George Vancouver - TOMORROW - is 8/1 best. Win, or EW?

Sorry for all the questions, I need spoon-feeding sometimes.

all win only all seem a bit big to me still but by no means ricks or anything

[TL900]

Looked at some early basketball spreads the one that stood out to me was New Orleans Hornets +3.5 at home vs the Jazz.

Hornets did very well in the draft picking up 3 very promising youngsters and they showed this in their first game at home to the Spurs when the Hornets were in control for most of the game but were finally outdone by the veteran spurs in the 4th Q. I think they can definitely compete with a very weak road team like the Utah Jazz though who had a road record of 11-22 last season.

This hornets team is going to surprise a few people this year imo although they won't be world beaters I think the playoffs is a real possibility this year.

Also think there is some value in the ML @ 6/4

Im on the spread though @ +3.5 before it moves as I have learnt from the trail blazers bet i suggested before the odds slashed they obviously won convincingly too

hornets still +3.5 I think its a decent line still, don't want to suggest anything in monetary terms but whatever you would be willing to risk if any.

Looks like the books have already turned on the lakers too and made the clippers a 1.5 point favourite over them "@ lakers" (or in laker court dress i should say) thoughts on this one anyone? Think I might just leave it lakers gota show up some time right? Also Dwight Howard was much improved game 2 compared to game 1 and will continue to get better. Not sure whether Nash is out of the game tonight yet, could be why clippers are favourites? anyone know?

[Ant040689]

Ahh apologies for the over talking, just lump on Palace wins and draws, there is value in it. Especially the close to evens against bottom Ipswich at home.

I now am self banning the mention of the team and lol Doobs nice put down.

[tikay]

Looked at some early basketball spreads the one that stood out to me was New Orleans Hornets +3.5 at home vs the Jazz.

Hornets did very well in the draft picking up 3 very promising youngsters and they showed this in their first game at home to the Spurs when the Hornets were in control for most of the game but were finally outdone by the veteran spurs in the 4th Q. I think they can definitely compete with a very weak road team like the Utah Jazz though who had a road record of 11-22 last season.

This hornets team is going to surprise a few people this year imo although they won't be world beaters I think the playoffs is a real possibility this year.

Also think there is some value in the ML @ 6/4

Im on the spread though @ +3.5 before it moves as I have learnt from the trail blazers bet i suggested before the odds slashed they obviously won convincingly too

hornets still +3.5 I think its a decent line still, don't want to suggest anything in monetary terms but whatever you would be willing to risk if any.

Looks like the books have already turned on the lakers too and made the clippers a 1.5 point favourite over them "@ lakers" (or in laker court dress i should say) thoughts on this one anyone? Think I might just leave it lakers gota show up some time right? Also Dwight Howard was much improved game 2 compared to game 1 and will continue to get better. Not sure whether Nash is out of the game tonight yet, could be why clippers are favourites? anyone know?

When is that please Tom? I'm trying to prioritise the backlog.

I've still got Tighty's India - England Test Series plunge to sort, too.

[tikay]

Ahh apologies for the over talking, just lump on Palace wins and draws, there is value in it. Especially the close to evens against bottom Ipswich at home.

I now am self banning the mention of the team and lol Doobs nice put down.

No apologies necessary mate, we have all had a good bit of fun, learned some stuff, & don't worry about Doobsy - he's an Actuary.

[TL900]

Looked at some early basketball spreads the one that stood out to me was New Orleans Hornets +3.5 at home vs the Jazz.

Hornets did very well in the draft picking up 3 very promising youngsters and they showed this in their first game at home to the Spurs when the Hornets were in control for most of the game but were finally outdone by the veteran spurs in the 4th Q. I think they can definitely compete with a very weak road team like the Utah Jazz though who had a road record of 11-22 last season.

This hornets team is going to surprise a few people this year imo although they won't be world beaters I think the playoffs is a real possibility this year.

Also think there is some value in the ML @ 6/4

Im on the spread though @ +3.5 before it moves as I have learnt from the trail blazers bet i suggested before the odds slashed they obviously won convincingly too

hornets still +3.5 I think its a decent line still, don't want to suggest anything in monetary terms but whatever you would be willing to risk if any.

Looks like the books have already turned on the lakers too and made the clippers a 1.5 point favourite over them "@ lakers" (or in laker court dress i should say) thoughts on this one anyone? Think I might just leave it lakers gota show up some time right? Also Dwight Howard was much improved game 2 compared to game 1 and will continue to get better. Not sure whether Nash is out of the game tonight yet, could be why clippers are favourites? anyone know?

When is that please Tom? I'm trying to prioritise the backlog.

I've still got Tighty's India - England Test Series plunge to sort, too.

hornets game is midnight