Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

"Not surprisingly India are prohibitively short at 1.47 for victory with England 5.80 and the drawn series 5.60. So the series correct score market tantalises instead. The 6.40 about a 3-0 India win catches the eye while 6.60 for 2-0 depends on some moderate England obduracy.

Recommended Bet
India to win 2-0 at 6.6"

http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/england-cricket/india-v-england-test-series-betting-england-face-payback-111112-194.html


I still like 4-0 with a 3-1/3-0 type saver.

Surely 1.47 can't be prohibitively short if we are backing 4-0 at 16/1?  I assume the prices are fairly consistent with each other without doing the maths.

I don't know much about the grounds*, and haven't seen the weather forecast, but India are 2.6 on betfair for the first test.  That looks like a steam in price if we think the prices on 3-1, 3-0 and 4-0 are value?  Certainly if India were anything like 2.6 for all 4 tests, then it would be anyway.  I guess I am missing something.

* In my head they are all just going to be much the same and favour the spinners.  

edit: Even if I am missing something have piled in on the first test anyway.

Is that a recommend, Doobsy?

After all, if we think they will win the Series 4-0, 3-1, or 3-0, then it must be a consideration.

I'd appreciate other views, & I will consult with a good friend & cricket expert off-Forum, but it is tempting.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/india-v-england-tests/india-v-england-[1st-test]/winner

[Ant040689]

On the Palace recommendation.....I want to hate it and they are never ever 1.60 shots but they probably aren't even money shots either and a shade of odds on would probably be the correct price.  I think it is really close though and it isn't something I would be betting myself because I can't quite understand what is so different about this team and the one that finished 17th last year and there is a real danger that everyone is overrating recent form and possibly underrating Derby too.  They drew against Boro and Brighton and have only been beaten 3 times in their last ten games.  I think the time to have been backing Palace is earlier in the season when they were considered relegation candidates.  When a team is top of the league it becomes very difficult for them to remain underrated because they automatically go on a lot of mug coupons and the odds compilers know it.

Good input.

Could you tell me why Leicester are 1.57 against Ipswich and when we played them 2 weeks ago we were at 2.0 please?

Leicester viewed as the better side, and the 2.0 was just after Ipswich had pulled off a good result under a new manager? 

I have backed Palace this weekend if you think I am crabbing here.

BTW your boy was linked with Real Madrid this morning.  May have to green out.

If it means anything to you, I don't think he is going. I think we are going to wait until the summer to command a bigger price and have a go at promotion. It wouldn't make sense on a financial front to cash in so early when we could hold on for another 6 months and possibly attain automatic promotion. Obviously there is the risk of injury but I think that is the only drawback. I doubt his value would depreciate if we wait another 6 months.

Read your response to the 1.6 for Leicester and that makes sense. I was thinking Ipswich were worth a little pop at 6.5/1 with all things considered but I like your tip on backing them at +1 instead and I may just do that at evens.

Also as an aside for more support of the Palace bet, interestingly in our last 13 games we have won all 4 games where we had been losing, which happened against Peterborough (1 down), Burnley (2 down), Wolves (1 down), Cardiff (2 down) if that means anything to anybody. I think that is the sign of champions to be honest. It's definitely the form of champions. I just hope it lasts the whole season!

[Tal]

Cricketing expert and former Sky Poker analyst?

[Doobs]

"Not surprisingly India are prohibitively short at 1.47 for victory with England 5.80 and the drawn series 5.60. So the series correct score market tantalises instead. The 6.40 about a 3-0 India win catches the eye while 6.60 for 2-0 depends on some moderate England obduracy.

Recommended Bet
India to win 2-0 at 6.6"

http://betting.betfair.com/cricket/england-cricket/india-v-england-test-series-betting-england-face-payback-111112-194.html


I still like 4-0 with a 3-1/3-0 type saver.

Surely 1.47 can't be prohibitively short if we are backing 4-0 at 16/1?  I assume the prices are fairly consistent with each other without doing the maths.

I don't know much about the grounds*, and haven't seen the weather forecast, but India are 2.6 on betfair for the first test.  That looks like a steam in price if we think the prices on 3-1, 3-0 and 4-0 are value?  Certainly if India were anything like 2.6 for all 4 tests, then it would be anyway.  I guess I am missing something.

* In my head they are all just going to be much the same and favour the spinners.  

edit: Even if I am missing something have piled in on the first test anyway.

Is that a recommend, Doobsy?

After all, if we think they will win the Series 4-0, 3-1, or 3-0, then it must be a consideration.

I'd appreciate other views, & I will consult with a good friend & cricket expert off-Forum, but it is tempting.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/india-v-england-tests/india-v-england-[1st-test]/winner

16/1 for 4-0 is about equivalent to even money each game (it isn't that simple as you would expect a shortening as India thrash England). So if you back the former you must smash into the 2.58 on Betfair.  The best odds are 7/5 at the bookies, so it is stand out too.

Yep, call it a recommend.  India to win first test 2.58 on Betfair. 

[TL900]

New York Knicks -6.5 @ Orlando Magic. (-7 in some)

Knicks have had a pretty awesome start to the season being 4-0 and beating some decent teams (inc the champions Miami) They look like they have really worked on their defence while still keeping their explosive offence. They are winning by an average of 17 points a game over a small sample of course but its still something to look at.

Magic on the other hand now Howardless go from looking average at best to god damn awful. They have started 2-4 for the season with some real drubbings mixed in there. They are dead last in points scored and I dont expect that to get any better vs the Knicks tight defence. I don't see how they keep up with Carmelo and co in scoring.

Knicks havent played since friday so they will be completley rested. Magic played on sunday.

This one feels like a steal on the face of it so hopefully can get there.

[Tal]

Dettori provides "positive test" from his races at Longchamp in September.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/mobile/horse-racing/20316457

[AndrewT]

Five of the last seven Tests at this ground have been draws - in the last two Tests New Zealand made 459 in their first innings and Sri Lanka put on 760!

There'll be no rain but the risk is if England show any batting backbone then a draw looks likely. However, the Indians have deliberately stifled England's preparation (playing poor teams, not bowling any spin) so how England will play is a big unknown, therefore I couldn't recommend a bet here.

One place where I would recommend a tickle for Fred is in the top England bowler. The natural assumption when on a tour of India is OMGSPINNERSFTW, which is why Swann is favourite, but he's best priced 15/8. EDIT: Also India don't allow DRS in their Tests so that hurts Swann.

Our other spinners (Patel and Panesar) are not much kop so there is scope for Jimmy Anderson to get some wickets if he can get some reverse swing going (as Dale Steyn has done in India in the past). He'll also open the bowling. Finn is going to miss the 1st Test and Broad also has a niggle so may not play all games.

Therefore recommend Anderson at 4/1 with Ladbrokes or Blue Squirrel

[claypole]

Dettori provides "positive test" from his races at Longchamp in September.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/mobile/horse-racing/20316457

Weird statement....I guess we are assuming his old friends Charles? Can't imagine performance enhancing

[redarmi]

Just another point on the Palace game......I think we all agree that Zaha is the absolute key to Palace at the moment and he is going to be a superstar.  Getting called up to the England team this week cannot be good for their chances this weekend.  It is going to be a very busy rollercoaster week for him and is likely to be his biggest moment if he plays and he will invest a lot of emotional energy into the game and spend time with the big time charlies who will be showing off about their baby Bentleys etc.  Going back to Palace and a game against Derby might not result in his best performance imo.

[Tal]

Just been informed that Chris Gayle hit the first ball against Bangladesh for six. Apparently that is the first time it has been done in a test match.

[Tal]

Dettori provides "positive test" from his races at Longchamp in September.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/mobile/horse-racing/20316457

Weird statement....I guess we are assuming his old friends Charles? Can't imagine performance enhancing

In whatever circumstances, if true, it is disappointing

[Longy]

Just been informed that Chris Gayle hit the first ball against Bangladesh for six. Apparently that is the first time it has been done in a test match.

If anyone was going to do it, it was going to be Gayle. I suppose maybe someone like Sehwag would have been 2nd favourite.

[Ant040689]

Just another point on the Palace game......I think we all agree that Zaha is the absolute key to Palace at the moment and he is going to be a superstar.  Getting called up to the England team this week cannot be good for their chances this weekend.  It is going to be a very busy rollercoaster week for him and is likely to be his biggest moment if he plays and he will invest a lot of emotional energy into the game and spend time with the big time charlies who will be showing off about their baby Bentleys etc.  Going back to Palace and a game against Derby might not result in his best performance imo.

For those reasons I would say it would make him play better. Everyone will be checking in on him on Saturday now and he will deliver. Also he probably won't play and if he does it will be for at most 30 mins. Press interviews and the distractions will make him want to play better on Saturday because he would want that lifestyle and he will only achieve it by playing better and better or at least not getting worse.

[tikay]

India v England.

Shane Warne has been in touch with me. (Well, with me & his 953,727 other "Followers" on Twitter) with some advioce as to how we beat India. Don't tell the England Team, whatever you do.



 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/england/9672952/India-v-England-five-point-plan-to-help-tourists-win.html

[Tal]

Might Mike v The Count

Ted Hankey is 5/2 with betfair to beat van Gerwen, but is largely 11/5, 15/8 and 2/1 elsewhere.

Seems like a price to me.