Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Just heard back from Walsall corrie.

7/1 is huge. Way wrong.

Charge!

[Snowball]

Here it is

[tikay]

Just heard back from Walsall corrie.

7/1 is huge. Way wrong.

Charge!

But.....if 7/1 is "huge", & "way wrong" is 5/1 Value?

VERY odd market, too - the top four are 1/8, 1/8, 1/3, & 11/8!

So do we still get on?

I'd rather like another "Barnet-style" bet, that was so much fun, even though it went down. (Unlike Barnet).

The recommend from Rich (Eso) was £30 @ 7/1, & I'd still like to get on, but is 5/1 too miserly, should we wait & week or two & see if we can nick an extra point or two on the price, as the risk of it shortening still further?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation

[horseplayer]

but he still hasn't done it in the premiership so he must be shite


law according to tony cottee and a few other xenophobic "pundits"

[The Camel]

Just heard back from Walsall corrie.

7/1 is huge. Way wrong.

Charge!

But.....if 7/1 is "huge", & "way wrong" is 5/1 Value?

VERY odd market, too - the top four are 1/8, 1/8, 1/3, & 11/8!

So do we still get on?

I'd rather like another "Barnet-style" bet, that was so much fun, even though it went down. (Unlike Barnet).

The recommend from Rich (Eso) was £30 @ 7/1, & I'd still like to get on, but is 5/1 too miserly, should we wait & week or two & see if we can nick an extra point or two on the price, as the risk of it shortening still further?

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation

He's a very good judge.

He has backed them at a bigger price a couple of weeks ago.

He now thinks they should be 7/2.

Pompey an excellent lay at 1/8 to go down.

[tikay]

India v England, First Test.

For the SERIES, we are already on as follows.

India 4-0 £20 @ 14/1

India 3-1 £10 @ 12/1

India 3-0 £10 @ 7/1

Top England Bowler Anderson £25 @ 4/1

Top Indian Batter Pujura £20 @ 7/1

________

For the First Test, I am mid a monster dither. I WAS all set on getting with India.

Cliffs.

Tighty thinks India.

Doobsy strongly recommends India @ 2.65 or thereabouts.

AndrewT notes 5 of the last 7 equivelants have ended in draws.

horsey prefers to get against India.

It is unanimous that it is a huge toss to win. (I won't be up at 3am, sorry).

I sought the opinion, privately, of a Gent of whom I have great regard & respect in these matters. He marginally favours India, BUT.....prefers to wait until the last moment, so that we have all the info to hand.

Here is the recent record from Ahmenabad, kindly passed to me by wise counsel....


http://stats.espncricinfo.com/india-v-england-2012/engine/records/team/match_results.html?class=1;id=840;type=ground

Here are the current Odds.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/india-v-england-tests/india-v-england-[1st-test]/winner


...which will move sharply post-toss.

I really wanted to have a punt on this, 5 days fun with a chance of making a few bob.

Not sure what to do now.

Oh, & I need to be in bed within the next hour.

Thoughts appreciated. Ideally, soonnsh, as it's time for my bedtime toddy. 

[horseplayer]

if you are not sure dont bet is generally good advice

[tikay]

if you are not sure dont bet is generally good advice

True, but what if I am not sure if I am not sure?

This is Premiership grade ditherage.

[tikay]

Hi Tikay

I am going to suggest a bet of £30 on WALSALL to be relegated from League 1 @ 7/1 with VC which hopefully will give a similar sweat to Camel's Barnet bet last year but with a better end result.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-1/relegation

The reason I am recommending the bet is that after a better than anticipated start Walsall are now on a horrific run of 10 league games without a win since the end of September and are perennial relegation contenders and a club with no money who for the past 2 seasons have survived by the skin of their teeth, and at the start of the season they were priced in this market at 6/4 although due to the prospect of Portsmouth being liquidated only VC/Hills and BF had markets with now only BF and VC available.

It is safe to assume that Portsmouth will fill one of the 4 places as once they come out of Administration they will receive a further penalty of -10pts and seem to be a club in disarray furthered by Appletons departure to Blackpool, the other contenders IMHO are Hartlepool (who may appoint Phil Brown as manager this week), Bury, Scunthorpe (recently appointed Brian Laws and showing a bit of form), Coventry and Oldham and again IMO Walsall should definately not be a 7/1 to fill one of 3or4 places against these teams having over achieved in the first third of the season.

Walsall's next few games are
Crawley away
Tranmere away
Hartlepool home
Coventry away
Yeovil home
Colchester home
Mk Dons away
Leyton Orient away and personally I can see only a return of 6/7 points maximum from these fixtures which takes them to January's fixtures which look equally as tough and would expect the price to contract further during this time offering an end of season green out or let it ride option  if they are completely sucked into the battle of which they are currently only 3 points outside.

Flame away...

Thanks Rich.

We know a man who knows a fan......

I'm afraid we missed the 7/1, but apparently "fair value" is 7/2, so we've had a dabble at 5/1.

We have £30 @ 5/1, BetVictor, Walsall to be relegated.


ON

To Be Relegated
Walsall
(To Finish In Bottom Four)
Odds:  5/1
Stake:  30.00
Possible Return:  180.00

[Hawk]

if you are not sure dont bet is generally good advice

True, but what if I am not sure if I am not sure?

This is Premiership grade ditherage.

[nirvana]

I couldn't resist England at 5's because I won over £10 earlier backing Sweden, basically gonna ride the heater

[tikay]

^^^^

Note this from the betslip......

To Be Relegated
Walsall
(To Finish In Bottom Four)

Whay happens if they finish in the bottom four & do NOT get relegated - i.e., Portsmouth finish above the relegation spots, but get points deducted, or worse, Pompey fail to finish the Season? Do Pompey, in that scenario, assume a League Position based upon their net points after deduction? 

[tikay]

if you are not sure dont bet is generally good advice

True, but what if I am not sure if I am not sure?

This is Premiership grade ditherage.

Squawky!

Appreciated your help the last few nights mate, thank you.

PS - Give us a Golf tip.

[tikay]

I couldn't resist England at 5's because I won over £10 earlier backing Sweden, basically gonna ride the heater

Sound logic Glenda. No wonder Chompy hangs on your every word.

[Tal]

Really like the Walsall bet. First day is critical in the cricket. If we bat and bat well, we could cause a surprise and set the test up nicely.

Alternatively...

We are a few days from the Karabiner-Tal derby. I'm sure he'll agree it's wide open this year. All results possible!