Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

After what looks another good tip from Tighty and a couple of losers from me, may I suggest u use a staking method which takes into acocunt the 'form' of your 'experts' (and just how good these 'experts' are). Glad to see u only put £25 on mine....maybe I should be confined to £25ers until I prove otherwise, whereas if Tighty's Sri Lanka bet comes off added to his others, maybe u should press his staking up to £150 etc etc. Think Dubai and Tighty are your form men, u should press their next selections!

I think I've been dropped from the think-tank after tipping one loser.

[WarBwastard]

Re: freebies, surely it makes more sense to use a freebie with longer priced bets as, with any investments, the riskier the investment the more chance of losing your money, so the less you have invested the better?

[The Camel]

Worked out a way of explaining the free bet thing that even a simpleton like me would understand.

You fancy two football teams on a Saturday.

Man City at 1/5
QPR at 100/1

If you have the free bet on City and cash on QPR, 84% of the time you will return £10 and lose £40 overall.

If you have cash on City and free bet on QPR, 84% of the time you will return £60 and win £10 overall.

adn's first explanation is still confusing though.

If you were just going have the free bet and never have another bet with the bookie, it doesn't matter what you have a freebet on does it?

[Hairydude]

Lol, I hesitated before using, or even mentioning itt, that I had used my "Free Bet", as I was almost certain it would cause controversy.

I have "Free Bets" awaiting use on almost every Account I have opened for this thread, this is only the 1st or 2nd one I have used. 

That's what the thread is for, I guess, & hopefully, it is not only me that has learned something new today, & at least I was the only one to get a "sigh".   

You should watch this tony as some accounts have 7 days expiration dates; and some 30 days so make sure you dont lose out on them

[ripple11]

Been speaking to a couple of my fellow Sheffield contacts and they agree with me that Sheff Utd will destroy Chesterfield at home( especially after the Wembley comedown ). Im told Sheff Utd will be near full strength (no Chesterfield team news )

If you can get on the 8-15 at Hills its great value although a very short price (I actually think 1 -2 is still good)

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-one/sheffield-utd-v-chesterfield/winner

Hi Fraser.

I missed the price on this - it is now generally 4/9 or worse - so I'll have to swerve it.

If you are on, good luck.

Still 8-15 with Hills, im on too

on too

[MereNovice]

Worked out a way of explaining the free bet thing that even a simpleton like me would understand.

You fancy two football teams on a Saturday.

Man City at 1/5
QPR at 100/1

If you have the free bet on City and cash on QPR, 84% of the time you will return £10 and lose £40 overall.

If you have cash on City and free bet on QPR, 84% of the time you will return £60 and win £10 overall.

adn's first explanation is still confusing though.

If you were just going have the free bet and never have another bet with the bookie, it doesn't matter what you have a freebet on does it?

I'm not convinced it works like that. I think you get the £40 as another free bet. It may vary from site to site but I'm pretty sure that if you win an odds-on bet, the "balance" is available for you to bet again.

Having just checked a £50 freebet I placed with StanJames at 6/5. I got another £40 freebet so in their case, presumably it is held over for any bet at odds of less than 2/1.

[MereNovice]

If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on something 5/1+ and arb it off on the exchange.

The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...

The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.

[claypole]

After managing to swerve my first winning bet, I would like to offer a second Tikay.

Leicester City v Forest:  Both Teams to Score, 5/6 Blue Square / 888

I think the price here is much nearer the 4/6 that is generally on offer.  In both teams last 6 games, all but one have resulted in both teams scoring.  Since O' Driscoll has joined the Forest coaching staff Forest are playing more flowing football, Leicester concede 1.25 a game and just over 1 a gamne at home (20 in 19) - and there last four games have averaged over 4 goals.  I really cannot see this bet not copping - the only doubt I have is the 4-0 mauling given my Leicester early in the season, however Forest were a different team then.

[Karabiner]

If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on something 5/1+ and arb it off on the exchange.

The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...

The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.

I would tend to agree with this based purely on logic, however I do remember it being explained to me that if you had a free bet you might as well use it in a manner that will inflict a decent amount of damage on the dastardly bookie or at least scare him a bit.

[edgascoigne]

If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on something 5/1+ and arb it off on the exchange.

The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...

The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.

Take these two examples, where Tikay has a hypothetical £100 free bet where winnings only are returned...

Example A

There is a true 6/4 shot, that he can back at 6/4, and lay on the exchange at 2.5 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 6/4. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £150 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £60 of the selection at 6/4. He now wins £60 if the selection wins (£150 winnings from free bet token - £90 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £60 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £60, or 60% of the value of his free bet token.

Example B

There is a true 10/1 shot, that he can back at 10/1, and lay on the exchange at 11.0 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 10/1. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £1000 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £90.90 of the selection at 10/1. He now wins £91 if the selection wins (£1000 winnings from free bet token - £909 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £90.90 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £91, or 91% of the value of his free bet token.

[tikay]

After what looks another good tip from Tighty and a couple of losers from me, may I suggest u use a staking method which takes into acocunt the 'form' of your 'experts' (and just how good these 'experts' are). Glad to see u only put £25 on mine....maybe I should be confined to £25ers until I prove otherwise, whereas if Tighty's Sri Lanka bet comes off added to his others, maybe u should press his staking up to £150 etc etc. Think Dubai and Tighty are your form men, u should press their next selections!

I think I've been dropped from the think-tank after tipping one loser.

On the contrary Mr Karabiner......

You put up a golf bet yesterday, a young lady, & I WILL be backing that, I've just been blown away with work today & yesterday.

Miss Hedwall remains available @ 40/1 in two places - S**Bet, & Ladbrokes.

See....

http://www.oddschecker.com/golf/kraft-nabisco-championship/winner/all

[edgascoigne]

As you can see in a world of finding perfect arbs, the higher the price you back at with this method the better.

One limitation is market liquidity (not always great market depth in markets sufficiently niche that there may be ricks/arbs), another is personal liquidity (ie. if you found a 28/1 shot you want to use you're going to need to load up c£2800 for a £100 free bet).

[Karabiner]

If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on something 5/1+ and arb it off on the exchange.

The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...

The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.

Take these two examples, where Tikay has a hypothetical £100 free bet where winnings only are returned...

Example A

There is a true 6/4 shot, that he can back at 6/4, and lay on the exchange at 2.5 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 6/4. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £150 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £60 of the selection at 6/4. He now wins £60 if the selection wins (£150 winnings from free bet token - £90 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £60 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £60, or 60% of the value of his free bet token.

Example B

There is a true 10/1 shot, that he can back at 10/1, and lay on the exchange at 11.0 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 10/1. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £1000 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £90.90 of the selection at 10/1. He now wins £91 if the selection wins (£1000 winnings from free bet token - £909 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £90.90 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £91, or 91% of the value of his free bet token.

Winner.

[The Camel]

If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on something 5/1+ and arb it off on the exchange.

The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...

The odds are irrelevant.
Even at 2/1 you "realise" the full value of your token.

Take these two examples, where Tikay has a hypothetical £100 free bet where winnings only are returned...

Example A

There is a true 6/4 shot, that he can back at 6/4, and lay on the exchange at 2.5 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 6/4. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £150 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £60 of the selection at 6/4. He now wins £60 if the selection wins (£150 winnings from free bet token - £90 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £60 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £60, or 60% of the value of his free bet token.

Example B

There is a true 10/1 shot, that he can back at 10/1, and lay on the exchange at 11.0 (for ease of maths we will ignore commission).

He has £100 free bet on at 10/1. To green up, he currently has the potential to win £1000 on the selection, and a 0 position on other outcomes. He lays £90.90 of the selection at 10/1. He now wins £91 if the selection wins (£1000 winnings from free bet token - £909 liability of real money incurred from laying on the exchange) and £90.90 if it doesn't (from his lay on the exchange).

Ergo he is guaranteed £91, or 91% of the value of his free bet token.

Beautifully explained.

Thanks Mr G.

[The Camel]

And fine use of the word "ergo" as well.