Tips for Tikay

[MereNovice]

Sri Lanka go a best priced 1/4

Appalling shot selection and strategy by England. They now trail by 125, and major surprises notwithstanding won't be chasing down 250+ to win when the pitch breaks up

For England fans the positive slant is that they may be batting again on day 3 before the pitch has really deteriorated.

[WellChief]

Any thoughts on the "muamba effect" for tonights re-scheduled FA cup match?   Can probably get on at 11.5 - 12.0 on betfair which is pretty big for a cup game especially given Tottenhams recent slump and Boltons win at the weekend.

[horseplayer]

some great character from the bowlers here not for the first time

still well in this

[TightEnd]

Sri Lanka 41-4 and out to 1/2

Below par batting making for a fascinating game

[FUN4FRASER]

Regardless of the result Rich your analysis was spot on

Still think Sri lanka are a good thing on this fast deteriorating track

[TightEnd]

End of play Sri Lanka lead by 208 with 5 wickets in hand

Price into 2/5 best

17 wickets fell in the day. The pitch is turning, with dust as the ball pitches even away from the rough patches

Would be a monumental achievement for England to chase 250, albeit they couldn't bat worse next time round. Swann and Anderson though have had terrific performances, top class bowlers

[MereNovice]

Another cricket bet for consideration:

West Indies v Australia - 1st T20
Number of sixes.

Currently PaddyPower are offering 4/5 on over 12.5. Not all sites have prices for this market yet so even better odds may become available.

If you take an average of sixes per ball faced for all batsmen for these two teams, you would expect Australia to hit 7.5 and West Indies to hit 6 sixes in 20 overs. Therefore given average bowling attacks and ground/pitch conditions we would expect 13.5 (!) sixes in this match.
However, neither team is fielding "killer" T20 bowlers so this average is likely to be exceeded.
More significantly, even accounting for homogeneous T20 grounds (i.e. with boundary ropes brought in) this is definitely a six hitting ground. In the two ODIs played there between these two teams 31 sixes were scored as opposed to 24 sixes in 3 matches at Kingston.

Bully-off is at 7pm tonight.

If you want to play safe, you could wait to see if Australia bat first but I'd say that this is a good bet whoever bats first.

[tikay]

Another cricket bet for consideration:

West Indies v Australia - 1st T20
Number of sixes.

Currently PaddyPower are offering 4/5 on over 12.5. Not all sites have prices for this market yet so even better odds may become available.

If you take an average of sixes per ball faced for all batsmen for these two teams, you would expect Australia to hit 7.5 and West Indies to hit 6 sixes in 20 overs. Therefore given average bowling attacks and ground/pitch conditions we would expect 13.5 (!) sixes in this match.
However, neither team is fielding "killer" T20 bowlers so this average is likely to be exceeded.
More significantly, even accounting for homogeneous T20 grounds (i.e. with boundary ropes brought in) this is definitely a six hitting ground. In the two ODIs played there between these two teams 31 sixes were scored as opposed to 24 sixes in 3 matches at Kingston.

Bully-off is at 7pm tonight.

If you want to play safe, you could wait to see if Australia bat first but I'd say that this is a good bet whoever bats first.

Thanks Vince, thats suitably quirky.
 
Time issues today, hence brevity.

I will not be available just before this begins, so I have to place the bet now, or never.

ON

£50 with Paddy Power.


Twenty20 International Matches West Indies v Australia
27-03-2012 18:30
Total Match Sixes
Over (12.5) @ 4/5
 
Your Bets Win
Single: Over (12.5) @ 4/5
1 line at £50.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £50.00
Free bets voucher: £50.00
Potential returns: £40.00
No: O/23146337/0000003  

I have used my "£50 Free Bet" for this - how should I account for this in the summary? As a feeebie, or include the notional stake?

PS - the current Oddschecker page for this bet is below. Better prices are available, but more 6's needed. Obv.......


http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/west-indies-v-australia/west-indies-v-australia-t20s/west-indies-v-australia-[1st-t20]/total-6s

[The Camel]

sigh @ using a free bet on a 4/5 shot.

Free bets generally stake not returned, so you're essentially betting that at 0.8 rather than 1.8, that's why it's best to use freebies on long-odds bets.

This makes zero sense as far as I can see.

You win £40 if you bet cash, and win £40 if you use a free bet. What is the difference?

Never use a free bet on an each way bet obviously, but apart from that, I can't see the problem.

[TightEnd]

I have used my "£50 Free Bet" for this - how should I account for this in the summary? As a feeebie, or include the notional stake?

as a freebie, the stake isn't returned if you win

[FUN4FRASER]

sigh @ using a free bet on a 4/5 shot.

Free bets generally stake not returned, so you're essentially betting that at 0.8 rather than 1.8, that's why it's best to use freebies on long-odds bets.

This makes zero sense as far as I can see.You win £40 if you bet cash, and win £40 if you use a free bet. What is the difference ?

Never use a free bet on an each way bet obviously, but apart from that, I can't see the problem.

 + 1...There is no difference.. a win bet is a win bet regardless of the price

[Dubai]

Obviously there is a difference and adnmdv is right- you should always use freebets on big price stuff

You are looking at it incorrectly- the free bet is effectively £50 stake- the fact it doesnt get returned from the winnings is massive and therefore for a 4-5 shot you only get back £40 not £90 as you would if u backed it in cash, therefore only getting 44.44% of the normal return. If you backed a 9-1 shot, you would get back £450 instead of £500, getting back 90% of the normal return etc

Your £50 freebet is initially equity for you to create possible further equity, therefore the higher the possible future equity the less negative taking away the initial equity is

[edgascoigne]

If you're a real badger you wait til you see a (near) arb on something 5/1+ and arb it off on the exchange.

The closer you get to an arb, the more you can 'realise' of your free bet token. This is the most +EV way to take advantage of these offers, if a little soul-less...

[The Camel]

Obviously there is a difference and adnmdv is right- you should always use freebets on big price stuff

You are looking at it incorrectly- the free bet is effectively £50 stake- the fact it doesnt get returned from the winnings is massive and therefore for a 4-5 shot you only get back £40 not £90 as you would if u backed it in cash, therefore only getting 44.44% of the normal return. If you backed a 9-1 shot, you would get back £450 instead of £500, getting back 90% of the normal return etc

Your £50 freebet is initially equity for you to create possible further equity, therefore the higher the possible future equity the less negative taking away the initial equity is

I must be dumb.

I have read this ten times and still can't see the difference.

On the 4/5 example, yes you would return £50 more, but surely that is irrelevant because you haven't actually staked any money with the free bet.

You are £40 in profit whichever way you do it if the bet wins.

[FUN4FRASER]

Obviously there is a difference and adnmdv is right- you should always use freebets on big price stuff

You are looking at it incorrectly- the free bet is effectively £50 stake- the fact it doesnt get returned from the winnings is massive and therefore for a 4-5 shot you only get back £40 not £90 as you would if u backed it in cash, therefore only getting 44.44% of the normal return. If you backed a 9-1 shot, you would get back £450 instead of £500, getting back 90% of the normal return etc

Your £50 freebet is initially equity for you to create possible further equity, therefore the higher the possible future equity the less negative taking away the initial equity is

I stick to what I said although I understand what you are saying, it just depends how you look at it + 9-1 shot has to win for these figures to stack up ....subjective