Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Loving the five post rationale maximum bet
Something to aspire to!

(p.s Lower leagues in England definitely have mispriced football bets, there was a great one tonight at 9/5 that was nearer 5/4 in truth)

He omitted the 50 year weather bell graph, & details of the Grandstand Architects & construction details.

Was that mis-price the Donny bet, Rich? If so, it was our sole winner tonight, but it kept the books reasonably straight for us.

[BigAdz]

No arguements here. Surely Tidal only there in case it comes up a bog. In which case they will pass with SC. Either way that leaves 7. Any softer and Midnight won't run. I was impressed with Wayward run last time, best it has moved for a while, but will all the care it gets from being owner trained work a second time? Long Run beat in this before and although they felt it was never right last year, they have bigger targets and Hendo a bit quiet at the mo as is Gingers boy.

All in all looks a decent play 1,2,3 in what will probably be a 6 horse field. GL

[tikay]

The downside of the bet is that it is ante-post. Hosres get injured and it could be withdrawn or they may switch to the Henessey in a few weeks. I personally think there is more chance of the opponents being diverted. This horse has had this as his target for a while.

 It could fall. It's a chase and the bookies could be lucky that having offered an overbroke place book only two finish and therefore place. Personally I think they won't go too fast and although this horse did hit a few fences in it's younger days I like the jumping.

 We need to act now. Imperial Commander was pulled out with an injury tody and many books went 14 1,2. The ones who stuck with 1,2,3 were just being careless and lazy. They may realise tomorrow.

 At 10am on Thursday they'll be a declaration and Midnight Chase and possibly others will pull out then. This could be the last chance to get 1,2,3.

 Anyone have arguments against before I have some more on?

Thanks very much Neil.

For better or worse, Fred has dipped his bread to the MAX, with Corals, EW @ 13/2.

Details later, need to go do some bedroom activities now. As in sleep. 

[Tal]

My ice cream racing brain tells me Nicholls is the in-form stable at the moment (I'm sure you'll post a much more polite response to that than the one you just said to yourself) but you've made a compelling case as to why TGB is a good e/w bet. Still convinced Long Run is a better horse, mind, even though that isn't the point. Plus, like you, I would prefer Barry on board.

Spotting what you've described as laziness by a bookie or two is exactly the sort of thing I'd never get close to noticing. It's a marvellous insight. I just assume it's all done immediately by computers and when a horse is pulled out, the market is immediately adjusted to reflect it. That it could be adjusted but with a significant flaw would never really cross my mind.

[Tonji]

Seem to remember the Turner prize rarely gets awarded to the favourite. I'd bet Luke Fowler, the outsider, he's from Scotland, most recent winners have come from Glasgow.

Not sure of the panel but the critics are generally content that Fowler is deserved outsider. The divisions are largely elsewhere.

Traditional media don't tend to do well in the Turner Prize so we now have two good reasons to lay the fav. Everyone likes it and if ever there were are a reason Noble can't win the Turner Prize, it is that.

I would be looking at Elizabeth Price strongly. Not only is she a hugely respected artist, this seems to be a giant stride forward from her previous work, with her combination of words and images in devastating tandem. It took over a year to make, which is a feature of her pieces.

Having spent the evening going through the opinions, that's the one I'd plump for.

You may well be right. I've had a quick look at her work & hate it. In fact not keen on any.

Last Turner Prize winner I liked was Wolfgang Tillmans, he is a photographer 

[Doobs]

The downside of the bet is that it is ante-post. Hosres get injured and it could be withdrawn or they may switch to the Henessey in a few weeks. I personally think there is more chance of the opponents being diverted. This horse has had this as his target for a while.

 It could fall. It's a chase and the bookies could be lucky that having offered an overbroke place book only two finish and therefore place. Personally I think they won't go too fast and although this horse did hit a few fences in it's younger days I like the jumping.

 We need to act now. Imperial Commander was pulled out with an injury tody and many books went 14 1,2. The ones who stuck with 1,2,3 were just being careless and lazy. They may realise tomorrow.

 At 10am on Thursday they'll be a declaration and Midnight Chase and possibly others will pull out then. This could be the last chance to get 1,2,3.

 Anyone have arguments against before I have some more on?

I am not convinced Long Run went backwards last season.  It was probably more a case of Kauto Star not having a good season in 2010/11 that lead to Long Run's achievements been overstated in that year.  Ignoring the previous year, and sticking to the best form of last season, it still looks like there could be as much as a stone between the two.  The Giant Bolster looks flattered on last season's Gold Cup form, as it seems very unlikely that was Long Run's running, and the rest of the field wasn't that strong.  I would be pretty surprised if he looks better than Long Run in a few months, though with no way of really measuring this, I'll stay away from a bet. 

The Giant Bolster also ran below form over hurdles on his only outing on heavy, though he has decent form on good to soft, he couldn't get past Time For Rupert on soft.

Enough crabbing, you get the 1,2,3 and that makes it a bet, but think you wasted 5 posts*, and that means I am not going to continue this post for 5 pages either. 

FWIW I have done the dirty each way on Silviniaco Conti instead.  Guess they could pull him out if heavy, but given he has only raced on the soft side of good, and this is a huge race, then that chance must be small?

* unless this is the start of a big assult on the post count for the staking thread.

[ripple11]

Brilliant work Neil, thanks have bet accordingly

Ice cream alert.....

If it comes up heavy/soft and say one or two drop out, I understand we have 1/5 on the first 3, being antepost. So is it worth anything on the 33/1 outsider, who likes heavy ground, has had a first season run,..... and we only need it to come in the first 3?

[Doobs]

Brilliant work Neil, thanks have bet accordingly

Ice cream alert.....

If it comes up heavy/soft and say one or two drop out, I understand we have 1/5 on the first 3, being antepost. So is it worth anything on the 33/1 outsider, who likes heavy ground, has had a first season run,..... and we only need it to come in the first 3?

Are you talking Cannington Brook*?  If so there is 40s and 50s availiable.  I'd still be wary, the last place bet laid on betfair was 16/1, which strikes me as significantly out of line.  It may well have been a misclick, but it is the sort of thing that leaves an alarm bell ringing in my head.

* midnight chase and wayward prince are bigger on betfair.

[TheDazzler]

I opened a Coral account just to back it.
That account is soon to be either;
1. Busto
2. Multiplied by 13/10
3. Quids in

Let us gogogogogogogo

[Bad Beat]

On Cannington Brook. A bit more digging and I found this...

 "Cannington Brook is likely to sidestep the race in favour of a handicap option on the same card. Colin Tizzard's eight-year-old has won twice from two starts at the Merseyside track and was a creditable sixth on his seasonal reappearance in the United House Gold Cup at Ascot.

He is likely to be back in action this weekend, but unless the heavens open in the meantime he is set to contest the Better Prices On Betfair Mobile Handicap Chase instead of taking on the likes of Long Run and Silviniaco Conti in the Grade One feature.

Tizzard said: "I think it's very likely he'll run in the handicap earlier in the day. I don't think he'd run in the Betfair unless the ground came up really heavy and it was so bad the meeting was nearly off. I don't think it's going to be that bad, so he'll probably run in the other race.""

[Bad Beat]

 I'm not too worried about Weird Al, but on this I wouldn't say it was 100% to run...

 "McCain said: “The plan is to run Weird Al in the Betfair Chase. He is in grand form and I am very happy with him.

“He didn’t run in the Charlie Hall Chase this year because I just wanted to give him a bit more time.

“He ran well in the Betfair Chase last season and then he disappointed in the Gold Cup but that’s just the one run. He was still in with a chance when he came down in the Grand National.

“You would not be confident on Saturday when you are taking on horses of that quality but we would be hopeful he runs a big race.

“He likes nice ground but he will cope if the ground is soft as it was slow enough last year.”"

 I can't fancy it at all.

 Given that there will probably be 5 or 6 runners I could bet Wayward Prince as an extra bet at 25/1 each-way. I don't really think of it as a saver as they would both be great bets in their own right:

"Parrott said Wayward Prince won't take up an entry in the Hennessy Gold Cup – "It's too much of a hurly-burly race for him" – but he could run in the Betfair Chase at Haydock a week earlier on November 24."

 

[Bad Beat]

 Nicholls on Tidal Bay:

 The trainer said: "He'll run in either the Hennessy or the Betfair and I'm quite keen on the Hennessy as I think three miles two around Newbury will suit him really well, especially if we keep getting all this rain."

 Maybe this will end up a four horse race!

[BigAdz]

Just noticed that TGB has won 3/4 times after a 60 day break. Only time beaten was last year in a hot hurdle race at Chepstow, which was obviously a pipe opener, as by now he was an established chaser.
Shows Bridgy knows how to get him ready.
Happier still!

[tikay]

That leaves us with The Giant Bolster. This horse finished 2nd in last years Gold Cup where it beat Long Run into 3rd. Long Run was 7/4 and TGB was 50/1. Currently they are 5/4 and 6/1 for Saturday.

 David Bridgewater, it's trainer, was quoted today:
 
"He’ll be better this season than he was last. He is still only a baby and the Gold Cup was only his eighth completed chase."

 He has been aiming the horse at this race for a while and it is then intended to aim for the King George.

 The Giant Bolster is a great each-way bet at 5/1 with 1/5th 1,2,3. Corals are currently offering 13/2 with these place terms and Ladbrokes and Betfred have 6/1 with the same place terms. I have had a pretty big bet and would happily have done that at 4/1.

 I think we have a great chance that this race cuts up to 5 or 6 runners and we are getting 13/10 a place 1,2,3. On the day that could look amazing.

 I like taking on Long Run and I personally think we could end up being on the better horse here when looked at in a few months time.

 They should offer ew 1st 2 here and we must punish them for being lazy and not caring because they are just quoting the race out of habit and for publicity.
 

Good morning Neil.

Appreciate your work for Fred, particularly after your busy evening last night.

Well we have been nitting along with £20's & £30's for a few weeks now, nursing November's £800 profit, & awaiting a MAX, and if we cannot have a little speculation & excitement, we may as well shut up shop & go home.

This looks to be value, & for that reason, we backed it last night, & without much hesitation.

Seems to be some fun & noise about it on Fred already, & we have 3 days to go yet.

Let's have some fun.

We have £75 EW, The Giant Bolster, to win the Betfair Chase, Haydock, Saturday, @ 13/2, with Corals, one fifth odds 1,2,3.  


ON



20/11/2012 22:54PM  Single
Each Way £ 150.00
2 x £ 75.00 The Giant Bolster - Betfair Chase - Win or Each Way @ 13/2 7.50



Now we shall sit back & have a little Bolster fun for a few days.

Click to see full-size image.

[edgascoigne]

Like the bet Neil, on for what they'd take.

Two of my favourite things in punting. A dirty e/w and the....