Tips for Tikay

[Snowball]

Probably need to be quick but Betvictor go 6/5 btts in the Bqrca match, 1.8 on Betfair.

[TightEnd]

Careful on Chelsea pls. Being reported that hazard plays up top. No Torres. No sturridge.. check the team news but doesn't imply an all out go for the win team

[tikay]

Stevenage wheels are coming right off and they're travelling to Bournemouth at a bad time tomorrow night.

Bournemouth to win at half- and full-time @ 15/8 with Coral.

Rec £40 at that price, ta. Also a chuckaway fiver on Cherries to hit 4+ @ 7-1 with VCdon'tbet

Once again, I dithered & I lost.......

Bournemouth now a best-priced 3/4.

Sorry Mr W, but unless you still consider that value, (it was 4/5 when you stuck it up) we can't bet.

I've never done a HT-FT jobbie, I don't think I'd much enjoy it if my Team won at 90 mins, but had only been drawing at HT.

Happy to get on at 3/4 IF you still consider it to be value.

[tikay]

I like Chelsea tonight and think there is value!
They had a mis click at the weekend against West Brom but rested Mata and Ivanovic (although Mata subbed on) for most of the game who have been 2 of their outstanding players this term aswel as Oscar.
Tonight they play Juventus knowing that a loss would put them in 3rd place with 1 game to go and a very awkward last round tie. A win guarentees progression.

This is a must win game for the blues and their manager to take the pressure off, hence the resting of players with this game in mind.

Juventus have Vucinic out who is one of their main threats, and despite the home advantage i can't see how they are odds on favourites. They drew to lazio at home at the weekend fwiw.

So to the price i expected to see Chelsea around 3.2, however you can currently back at 4.7 on betfair.

This to my mind is VALUE

Reccomend at least £30 at 4.7 with betfair

Thanks Killer.

We could now get 19/5 (4.8) with BetVictor, but the Team News does not bode well.

At present, it looks like we will have to sit this one out.

[Doobs]

I like Chelsea tonight and think there is value!
They had a mis click at the weekend against West Brom but rested Mata and Ivanovic (although Mata subbed on) for most of the game who have been 2 of their outstanding players this term aswel as Oscar.
Tonight they play Juventus knowing that a loss would put them in 3rd place with 1 game to go and a very awkward last round tie. A win guarentees progression.

This is a must win game for the blues and their manager to take the pressure off, hence the resting of players with this game in mind.

Juventus have Vucinic out who is one of their main threats, and despite the home advantage i can't see how they are odds on favourites. They drew to lazio at home at the weekend fwiw.

So to the price i expected to see Chelsea around 3.2, however you can currently back at 4.7 on betfair.

This to my mind is VALUE

Reccomend at least £30 at 4.7 with betfair

Thanks Killer.

We could now get 19/5 (4. with BetVictor, but the Team News does not bode well.

At present, it looks like we will have to sit this one out.

Sitting out seems fine.  I backed this but it is definitely more banzai than value.  Juve top of serie A and a misfiring Chelsea aren't in our favour.  I have banzaiiiiiid this already, just so people know my position.

Edit.  4.8 gone already on Betfair.  Laying Juve at 1.83 seems a better bet with hindsight.  I think Chelsea only need a draw to keep it in their own hands, so no need to go for the win.

[tikay]

Doncaster to win at Carlisle 9/5

Doncaster won 4 of their last 5 away games. Have a big squad and playing a Carlisle team out of form

Carlisle lost 4 of their last 5 at home only beating Oldham (21st), no clean sheet since 19th Sept and leaked 12 goals in their last 5.

Overall Carlisle are W 2 D 2 and L 5 at home, conceding 22 goals

Doncaster away W 6 D 2 L 1 scoring 14 and conceding only 5

Certainly a team with the likes of James Harper, Sammy Clingan, Iain Hume and David Cotterill with Robbie Blake on the bench who are all established Championship players has every right to be going the right way in this division..


Not claiming personal knowledge of either team, but this was the one game that stood out to me where nearly 2-1 the away team looked very interesting



"Manager Dean Saunders told Rovers Player that he is looking for his side to build on the victory at Portsmouth, with the perfect opportunity to do so in tonight’s game against Carlisle.

“We watched the Portsmouth game again and in the first half they [Portsmouth] never got near our goal apart from when we give them the ball. I thought it was a solid performance, again, away from home we've just got to keep building on it.

“I put the players under pressure every day to get better, I watch every pass, every run and every set play and I’m picking holes in all of it –as long as they’re still trying to improve individually then as a group we will improve.

“The effort at the moment, the way they have stuck together and the spirit they are showing is excellent.

“We’ve only let five goals in away from home, sometimes you feel obliged that you have to take the game to teams, but we can’t go away from doing the things we do well - you have to carry on doing the ‘dirty’ side of the game aswell.

Dean admitted that although he is aware of Carlisle’s struggles at Brunton Park this season, he is more concerned about his team rather than focusing too much on the opposition.

“Carlisle have conceded a lot of goals and lost a lot of games so they haven’t got the best of home records.

“I’m more concerned about getting our house in order and make sure we get better at what we are doing. We’ve got a platform that we work to, but I’d like us to have longer spells of creative football where we can put games to bed before we go into the last fifteen minutes.”"

Thanks Rich.

No amount specified, giving me the option to go Route Nit.

We have £20 @ 15/8 with Blue Square, Doncaster to beat Carlisle.


ON

Doncaster Rovers @ 15/8 
Market
 Win/Draw/Win
 
Event
 English League 1
Carlisle United v Doncaster Rovers
2012-11-20 19:45:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £20.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £20.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-20 17:35:49
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000143

[tikay]

Probably need to be quick but Betvictor go 6/5 btts in the Bqrca match, 1.8 on Betfair.

I was indisposed at the time, & it was a 5pm kick off, so we missed it.

Hope it gets home if you are on.

You are currently half-way there - 0-2 to Barca at present.

[tikay]

Benfica v Celtic

I recall there were a couple of Celtic bets in previous CL rounds thread missed

They are 13-2 to win in Portgual, you can get 7/2 the draw

You could get 16/1 Samaras 1st goalscorer I noticed

Any love for Celtic doing something again tonight from Snowball, Teacake and crew?

A draw virtually sends them through (they end home to Spartak, Benfica go to Barca to end the group)

Prices look attractive.

Funny you mention it I have been debating all morning whether to stick up Samaras as fgs @ 16s, the quesion is does he score first more than once if this game was played 16 times, id say yes.Maybe a fiver Banzai?
On anothet note, the coverage we have been getting down South has been incredible since the Barca games and even Spartak.Usually we get a hard time and few mentions but that seems to have changed, i can't believe Talksport have our game tonight instead of Chelsea tho Chelsea are on Itv.

Thanks snowy.

Samaras FGS is tonight's Banzai.

He is between 9/1 & 11/1 with ALL Firms EXCEPT BWin, who go 16/1. Seems it has to be done, & I woild like to show some solidarity with the Celtic lads, we ignored you last time to our cost.

Tighty mentioned the bet first, but I believe he sought views, rather than recommended the bet.

We have £5 @ 16/1, Samaras, First Goalscorer tonight, Benfica v Celtic.

ON


   11/20/2012 6:47 PM Single bet   Benfica - Celtic (Who will score the first goal of the game? (Regular time) ) Georgios Samaras (Cel) ? 5.00 16/1


NOTE - The Betslip suggests that BWin's clock is 1 hour ahead of ours, as I just placed the bet, minutes ago.

[tikay]

Very considerate of Mrs Bell to squeeze it out for Fred's sake.

Given that a draw for Celtic is almost job done, and they were very good at parking the bus against Barca, is 7/2 the draw not a massive bet? What am I missing?

Thanks Andrew.

This bet was mentioned by Tighty, but once again, he gets by-passed......

I am being particularly indecisive tonight - or I think I am, I'm not completely sure - but I'm not feeling I have the courage to go "massive" here, but we will enjoy a little tickle.

£20 @ 7/2, Betfred, Benfica - Celtic to draw.

ON

Benfica v Celtic
Match Betting
 Draw 7/2 
Total stake £ 20.00
Estimated return £ 90.00

Full stake £ 20.00
Full estimated return £ 90.00

[Tal]

The Turner Prize seems to be a three horse race.

The incredibly named Spartacus Chetwynd has a performance art piece which has completely divided the critics in a way I can't remember the Turner Prize doing for some time.

Favourite Paul Noble has an actual drawing. Could you imagine such a thing? A thing he's drawn. Of a thing. A thing you can identify as being a thing. A thing you recognise as being the same thing it was drawn as.

In between, we find a film in three parts by Elizabeth Price, broadly centred on a Woolworths fire in 1979.

The critics are divided:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/2012/oct/07/turner-prize-2012-review

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/art/art-reviews/9588008/Turner-Prize-2012-Tate-Britain-Seven-magazine-review.html

6/4
2/1
7/2

Are the three prices with an 8/1 outsider. Any thoughts?

[tikay]

Tonight Juventus face Chelsea in the Champions League, and the referee is Cuneyt Çakir. For those who don't know of him, he is very strict and card happy. He is the referee that sent off John Terry against Barcelona last year.

His stats for 2012/13 can be found here:-

http://worldreferee.com/site/copy.php?linkID=565

Taking the seven games from this season, he has issued 3 red cards and 40 yellow cards. That works out as 0.43 red cards a game, and 5.71 yellow cards a game. The average is brought down slightly by the two games were he only issued 2 yellow cards, but this obviously cannot be ignored.

Looking at the odds, and this is where I look for the experts views, is where the value (if any lies). The odds that standout to me are:-

Stanley James over 56 booking points at 11/8
Ladbrokes over 55 booking points at 11/10 (I know Stan is better, but just listing as an observation)
Ladbrokes 55-75 booking points at 12/5

Does anybody have any opinions of this?

Seemingly mixed views on this one.

I am strangely drawn to this bet, but there is not much warmth for it. However, unless I am misunderstanding it, the Market has some wildly different prices.

We can now get 23/20 for OVER 50, which seems ool to me, so there's my excuse for having a small interest. I suppose the extra value only comes into play if a red is shown. Probably. I think.

We have £20 @ 23/20 with Blue Square, OVER 50 Bookings Points, Juve v Chelsea.


ON



Over 50 points @ 23/20 
Market
 Total Bookings Points
 
Event
 UEFA Champions League
Juventus v Chelsea
2012-11-20 19:45:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £20.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £20.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-11-20 18:02:53
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000144
 

[Doobs]

The Turner Prize seems to be a three horse race.

The incredibly named Spartacus Chetwynd has a performance art piece which has completely divided the critics in a way I can't remember the Turner Prize doing for some time.

Favourite Paul Noble has an actual drawing. Could you imagine such a thing? A thing he's drawn. Of a thing. A thing you can identify as being a thing. A thing you recognise as being the same thing it was drawn as.

In between, we find a film in three parts by Elizabeth Price, broadly centred on a Woolworths fire in 1979.

The critics are divided:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/2012/oct/07/turner-prize-2012-review

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/art/art-reviews/9588008/Turner-Prize-2012-Tate-Britain-Seven-magazine-review.html

6/4
2/1
7/2

Are the three prices with an 8/1 outsider. Any thoughts?

96% on the 3 prices alone.  Doesn't reek of value

[hector62]

Have you forgotten the cardfest bet for the Chelsea game ? I thought that it got a lot of positive feedback.

[tikay]

The Turner Prize seems to be a three horse race.

The incredibly named Spartacus Chetwynd has a performance art piece which has completely divided the critics in a way I can't remember the Turner Prize doing for some time.

Favourite Paul Noble has an actual drawing. Could you imagine such a thing? A thing he's drawn. Of a thing. A thing you can identify as being a thing. A thing you recognise as being the same thing it was drawn as.

In between, we find a film in three parts by Elizabeth Price, broadly centred on a Woolworths fire in 1979.

The critics are divided:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/artanddesign/2012/oct/07/turner-prize-2012-review

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/art/art-reviews/9588008/Turner-Prize-2012-Tate-Britain-Seven-magazine-review.html

6/4
2/1
7/2

Are the three prices with an 8/1 outsider. Any thoughts?

Thanks Tal.

Not to be rude, but is this "Art"?

If so, I attach the same weight to it as X Factor & the like.  Chompy & Co will love it, of course. Posh Pap.

[tikay]

Have you forgotten the cardfest bet for the Chelsea game ? I thought that it got a lot of positive feedback.

It got some warmth hector, but attention was also drawn to the way the stats had been interpreted.

Anyway, we did have a little tickle eventually, (see a few Posts up) as I found a ridiculous way of convincing myself under the guise of Value (perceived).