Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

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[AndrewT]

The video of that is amazing.

'Chocolate, chocolate, chocolate, WHOA!!!'

http://thefakeespn.lockerdome.com/articles/102616967

[RickBFA]

Morning Mr T. In terms of minutes per £ yesterdays selection was the worst I have ever given you so I shall make it up to you by giving you my 2nd best tip in terms of £ per minute.

The 2nd Test starts mid kip tonight and I have been postulating over it since the end of the last one. India are now odds on everywhere and I can't support England. So what to bet on ? We have Hadrain batting for us so what about an Indian bowler.To my mind it is a toss up between Ashwin and Ohja, no shit Sherlock I hear you all say ! You can get 7/4 on both of these and that makes no appeal.

We know that this is a spinners wicket. We have been informed by his Tightiness that the pitch was used 3 weeks ago which will help spinners. We also know the England batsmen are terrible against spin, with a notable exception and some question marks. In the match played last year at this venue against the West Indies these 2 bowlers took 16 of the 20 WI wickets including all 10 of the 2nd innings. Ashwin was awarded the Man of the Match as he was in 1 of the other 2 Tests.

So my suggestion of how to get with these 2 bowlers is slightly quirky but I think it is value. I suggest backing both of them to be Man of the Match. I priced it up myself as around 5 or 6 to 1 each of 2 but Ladbrokes are offering 9-1 on both. So the usual bet size £10 on both Ashwin/Ohja to be MOTM @ 9-1 Ladbrokes.

Wow, now that looks very clever. I have no idea of it reps value, but it is certainly an ingenious approach.

Worth mentioning, too, that I THINK Fred has only once bet on a "Man of the Match" award, which was also owned by you, & which won. A Rugby League game if I recall correctly, & it was the "Lance Todd Trophy"?

If India bat first the chances are another Indian batsman will be man of the match, in my opinion.


I can't be having Antonio at 13-1 either. Wed have lost three on the spin, Barkley has been recalled, Antonio to my mind is at the whim of a big change in team line up by Mr Jones.

I wouldn't be backing Antonio personally but to be fair he is Wednesday's only real attacking outlet given the negative tactics Jones is employing right now. The only way Antonio wont play though is through injury.

Unless something dramatic has changed, I'd expect Leicester to win by 2 goals on saturday. We (Wednesday) are in a right old mess currently with Jones setting up to not lose games rather than try to win them. Trouble is that typically results in 1-0 and 2-0 defeats because we are poor defensively.

[Skippy]

Does trainer form really exist, or is it just reading patterns where there are none? I've always felt that it was bit like having 100 guys toss a 10 coins, taking the 5 guys who have tossed 8 heads or more* and saying they are on hot head tossing form, and you should bet on them in the future to get heads.

I know an entire stable can catch a horse cold, but apart from that...

Shameless self bump for input.

[redarmi]

Does trainer form really exist, or is it just reading patterns where there are none? I've always felt that it was bit like having 100 guys toss a 10 coins, taking the 5 guys who have tossed 8 heads or more* and saying they are on hot head tossing form, and you should bet on them in the future to get heads.

I know an entire stable can catch a horse cold, but apart from that...

Shameless self bump for input.

I was going to comment on this the other day as I think it is a fascinating area for discussion.  I think there is no doubt it is an overrated area and there is definitely a lot of noise in the data because if Aidan O'Brien has four winners on the bounce he could be said to be "in form" but really they may all of have been 1/3 shots in maidens at The Curragh.  Also randomly out of a trainer base in the hundreds then a couple are always randomly going to be "in form"  That said a stable that has had a couple of winners knows how those horses have performed at home against the more unexposed horses so will find it easier to place their horses to good effect than a stable which is not winning races.  By way of example if i have horse x and it comes out and wins a good handicap and I know that my horse y that recently beat it at home is very likely to win a grade D maiden at York on its debut and I can place it well.  If horse x runs down the field then I could still place my maiden in th3e race at York but I have less of an idea how it will do.  It might still win or it might realistically be better off in a Southwell claimer but I have less of an idea and am less likely to have the subsequent winner.   Also as you have suggested negative trainer form can be very important when there are bouts of cold around or even just when a stables horses arent running well they will find it harder to place them and get a good handle on the form.

[The Camel]

What was the non league team owned by a poker player Fred opposed earlier in the season because they were going skint?

[Doobs]

What was the non league team owned by a poker player Fred opposed earlier in the season because they were going skint?

Kettering Town?

[The Camel]

What was the non league team owned by a poker player Fred opposed earlier in the season because they were going skint?

Kettering Town?

That's the one.

Has there been any update?

I see they are still playing (and losing)

[Doobs]

What was the non league team owned by a poker player Fred opposed earlier in the season because they were going skint?

Kettering Town?

That's the one.

Has there been any update?

I see they are still playing (and losing)

Was just googling.  Seems like they are playing a bunch of kids, and playing as guests of Corby Twon.  Looks like there could be a chance of new owners.  They have played 12 games and are on -5 points.   

There are worse places to be than supporting QPR or Bradford City.

[TightEnd]

The Southern League met with a view to expulsion after they had fallen a bout a month behind on fulfilling fixtures  and at the eleventh hour funding arrived from the owner sufficient for them to construct a team (mainly with lads released from various youth programmes) and resume fixtures though not at Nene Park which remains unhabitable without power, groundsman etc

The long term future remains unresolved, but they are now catching up with fixtures, albeit with a barely competitive team.

[Doobs]

I didn't realise Rushden and Diamonds had disappeared too. 

[TightEnd]

I didn't realise Rushden and Diamonds had disappeared too. 

18 months or so ago, though it was a perpetual struggle ever since Max Griggs/Dr Martens ended their funding 5 years or so previous..that funding had taken Rushden into Division 1 under Brian Talbot

AFC Rushden + Diamonds was started up the following season with U18s and was then accepted into the United Counties League this season, with the aim of eventually making it back

In a league with crowds of 100 if a team is lucky the Rushden Derby (Rushden and Higham v AFC Rushden ) got a crowd of 1,300 in October at Step 9!

Club is owned by the Supporters.

[Tal]

Clattenberg charges dropped. Mikel charged.

Welcome to Chelsea, Rafa.

[BigAdz]

Not sure what Fred thinks of what I think is potentially a good back to lay opportunity?
Every time the Pipe stable get a decent 3 mile novice chaser it gets talked up as a potential Gold Cup horse following his unlucky attempt to win the GC with Gloria Victis.
Last year Grand Crus was backed into single figures I recall,but in the end sense prevailed. However, it didn't stop plenty of people investing.
This year Dynaste looks to be following the same path, and looked mighty impressive to me at Cheltenham, when beating a previous 2nd coming in Fingal Bay.
With the same stable having Our Father also talked of as a possible Sun Alliance horse, and the aforementioned Grand Cru looking very much a non stayer, if Dynaste keeps up this improvement it is inevitable at some stage he will be talked up.
I have yet to find a bookie quoting him in Gold Cup lists but betfair have enough liquidity for Fred to stick a tenner on at odds over 300-1, which at some point given natural progression, is sure to be layable at some point.
A long game opportunity, but sure it will bear fruit.

[tikay]

I was speaking with Mr Channing a few moments ago.

He has no strong views on tonight's NFL, & these are NOT tips, or recommends, but his three mini-fancies are.....

Detroit +3.5, 10/11

Dallas -3, 5/6

NY jets, +7, 10/11.

Of the three, if he were forced to back one only, Detroit would be the pick.