Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

There just has to be an angle in the Premier League.

The "big 4" are so terrible this season, something has to be vale even if WBA to make the Champions League isn't it.

Isn't it just as simple as opposing them for their games?  They are all still being priced as though they should be huge favourites but are conceding goals at a real rate.  Also think opposing them in Europe is a very good play.  EPL nothing like as good as it was and Barca/Real possibly on slide too.   Possible outsider for CL?

[TightEnd]

44 goals in the 10 Championship games so far this weekend

There has to be mileage in overs, both teams scoring etc etc still

A complete mismatch in abilities between a lot of strikeforces and back fours, allied with a lot of clubs trying to win away.

[The Camel]

There just has to be an angle in the Premier League.

The "big 4" are so terrible this season, something has to be vale even if WBA to make the Champions League isn't it.

Isn't it just as simple as opposing them for their games?  They are all still being priced as though they should be huge favourites but are conceding goals at a real rate.  Also think opposing them in Europe is a very good play.  EPL nothing like as good as it was and Barca/Real possibly on slide too.   Possible outsider for CL?

Yes, probably right.

Unfortunately the only bet I had in the Prem today was laying Utd.

D'oh.

[Tal]

Well, McShane huffed and puffed but couldn't blow Carlsen's house down. Instead, Carlsen showed why he is head and shoulders above the field in endgames (as it sounds, where there are relatively few pieces left each) and won a game that most club players would agree a draw in.

Although Fred lost £10, Carlsen has now won his first round against an opponent who usually exceeds expectations in this tournament.

He also won with Black, which might count if he ends up tied for first.

Two other games have been decisive and the remaining game is still going on. Whatever happens, our man is now at the top after one of eight games.

There was a shock result with Nakamura beating second seed Aronian (a shock not because of ability but because Nakamura has never - as far as my records show - beaten Aronian with the Black pieces in a competitive game). Nakamura was 5-1, I think, so there are spots there if we can find them.



Will keep an eye out for any future odds opportunities.

[Tal]

I'll be going tomorrow to watch. I know a few people who will be involved in the side events and who are assisting with the commentary. If I find out any insider info, I will be sure to pass it on.

[tikay]

That photo of the auditorium really captures the atmosphere, Tal.

Are the audience totally silent during play? Can they come and go as they wish, whilst the players are on the stage in thought mode?

[Tal]

That photo of the auditorium really captures the atmosphere, Tal.

Are the audience totally silent during play? Can they come and go as they wish, whilst the players are on the stage in thought mode?

Spectators must be absolutely silent in the auditorium - phones on silent, the atmosphere only punctuated by the odd cough. However, there are plenty of other rooms in the venue with things going on - including the commentary, the side events and the bookstall - where the kibitzers can discuss, debate and disagree.

And yes you can come and go as you wish - some will have their laptops and iPads working to help them decipher what us going on (although any furious tapping might get raised eyebrows). You can take photos for the first few minutes of play.

Most people will pop in and out. Maybe do twenty minutes to half an hour in there and then go out and find out whether they are thinking along the right lines by seeing what the commentators are mooting.

As you say, if there were a place where you could "feel the atmosphere", this would be one.

[Tal]

Last game has just finished (yes, over seven straight hours) and Michael Adams beat bottom seed Gawain Jones with Black.

So our man Carlsen is joint top after one game with Nakamura, Adams and Kramnik.

Four decisive games in this level of of tournament is rare, so this could be a cracking tournament.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0910, Sunday December 2nd 

LOSS on Month = £161.34

Unsettled Bets  - £942.50




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

* - NB - The December Spready has not been set up yet, so I am temporarily extending the November sheet. The December figures above are accurate though. Normal service will be resumed etc etc.

[TL900]

Morning.

The early game today is Phoenix @ NYK. Knicks are 6-0 at home and Suns are 2-7 on the road. NYK have won their last 2 games while Suns have lost their last 2. In the 7 losses for the suns they have lost by >12 in 5 of them. They have one of the worst defences in the league and just cant cope with a good offence.

Suggest NYK -10 with ladbrokes. All other books are -10.5 and i expect it to be 12/13 come gametime.

GL

[Tal]

No recommends for today's chess. Market here for those who are interested:

http://www.lbplay1.com/sportsbook/en-gb/Chess/London-Chess-ClassicChess/London-Chess-Classic-t210005396

Can't see McShane is value even at 12/1 against Anand who is too solid these days.

Aronian might be better than 8/1 against Carlsen (world numbers 1 and 2) but he's off the back of a defeat and a draw is very likely IMO.

[tikay]

Daily Summary as at 0955, Sunday 2nd December

We lost £161.34 yesterday.

We tried a few things which never worked out, & even our good bets went sour. Never mind, one decent winner & we shall return to blue ink.

In total we had 19 bets, though many were related, effectively we had 9 unrelated bets, here is a list of all those that won.

Wycombe beat Bristol Rovers (+£42), stuck up by the punting legend that is Claypole. This, he promised us, would be his last ever Fred bet if it lost. FML.

And that was it.

On the other side of the ledger, England trashed New Zealand which could barely have been foreseen, & cost us a few bob, & in the Scottish FA Cup one of the two games we had targeted for 6+ goals reached 5 with 20 minutes to spare, but then blanked out. We had Suarez to score, he blanked, got himself suspended, so that damaged our Suarez PL Goals bet, too. A little chess bet failed, but we are on the favourite outright, so not a disaster. 

One of those days. No point moping, on we go.

We have a little NFL interest already for today, (Detroit), & there is plenty of other stuff going off.


PS – Tal has to name at least 4 of the people in the first photo.   
 

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[tikay]

No recommends for today's chess. Market here for those who are interested:

http://www.lbplay1.com/sportsbook/en-gb/Chess/London-Chess-ClassicChess/London-Chess-Classic-t210005396

Can't see McShane is value even at 12/1 against Anand who is too solid these days.

Aronian might be better than 8/1 against Carlsen (world numbers 1 and 2) but he's off the back of a defeat and a draw is very likely IMO.

Thanks Tal.

You have the sole responsibility for bets in the LCC, & I'll take your recommends blindly, so be careful, it's all down to you. Don't "force" any bets, & probably best if we avoid backing against Magnus again, unless you spot huge value, othewrwise we reduce the equity in our outright on him.

Really looking forward to this, & yoir daily Updates on it.

[Tal]

Left to right:

Magnus Carlsen, Luke McShane, Vladmir Kramnik, Malcolm Pein, Vishwanathan Anand and Levin Aronian.

[tikay]

Morning.

The early game today is Phoenix @ NYK. Knicks are 6-0 at home and Suns are 2-7 on the road. NYK have won their last 2 games while Suns have lost their last 2. In the 7 losses for the suns they have lost by >12 in 5 of them. They have one of the worst defences in the league and just cant cope with a good offence.

Suggest NYK -10 with ladbrokes. All other books are -10.5 and i expect it to be 12/13 come gametime.

GL

Morning to you too, Tom, & thanks.

You don't suggest a bet size, so I'm not sure how strongly you rate this bet, but we have gone for a medium bet.

We have £44 @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes) NY Knicks (-10) over Phoenix Suns.

ON

Selection10/11 - New York Knicks

EventPhoenix Suns at New York Knicks NBA

MarketPoint Spread
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - New York Knicks
1 line at £44.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £44.00
Potential Return: £84.00
Time: 02/12/12 10:02
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000210