Tips for Tikay

[redarmi]

I'm putting the 8/13 on cardiff out there again, at home to Wednesday. 8/13 is a very good price, imo.

Thanks Aaron. I am sure you are right, & Cardiff will win easily, but at that price, it is a bit too trappy for my liking, the Championship is a punters minefield right now. A few 5/2 shots would interest me more, to be honest.

Good luck with your bet though, hope you get the lot.

I dont like Cardiff as a bet but you sound like a bit of an ice cream here Tikay.  A true 1/2 shot at 8/13 is exactly the same as betting a 9/4 shot at 5/2.  The only thing about the price that matter is whether it is value or not.  You should be willing to bet 1/10 shots if you think they are value.

[tikay]

I'm putting the 8/13 on cardiff out there again, at home to Wednesday. 8/13 is a very good price, imo.

Thanks Aaron. I am sure you are right, & Cardiff will win easily, but at that price, it is a bit too trappy for my liking, the Championship is a punters minefield right now. A few 5/2 shots would interest me more, to be honest.

Good luck with your bet though, hope you get the lot.

I dont like Cardiff as a bet but you sound like a bit of an ice cream here Tikay.  A true 1/2 shot at 8/13 is exactly the same as betting a 9/4 shot at 5/2.  The only thing about the price that matter is whether it is value or not.  You should be willing to bet 1/10 shots if you think they are value.

That is because I am an ice-cream.......

Guilty as charged.

PS - I don't see Cardiff as 1/2 today. Mr Jones would love nothing more to get a result at Cardiff.

[Tonji]

Top England bowler.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/test-series/india-v-england-%5b3rd-test%5d/top-england-bowler

If the cricketing experts believe Monty has the edge over Swann? The Hills price seems to have some value?

[TightEnd]

Top England bowler.

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-england/test-series/india-v-england-%5b3rd-test%5d/top-england-bowler

If the cricketing experts believe Monty has the edge over Swann? The Hills price seems to have some value?

This is an interesting one

It is felt that Month has the edge on raging turners as he is 10kph quicker than Swann and the Indian spinners, thus the batsmen have less time to react to sharp spin. eg Mumbai

On more normal spinning wickets, where the tracks deteriorate over time rather than start off as turners, then it is felt that Swann and Ojha have more guile and can get wickets through flight and deception, where Monty traditionally cannot.

In other words: Possibly.

[Tal]

Monty is a quick spinner. Dhoni has none of those at his disposal, so I don't see any pitches in the near future that favour Monty over Swann. They will want slower pitches that turn sideways instead.

This sound fair, TightEnd?

[Tal]

^^^

Lol. Just lol.

[TightEnd]

Name that ground

Click to see full-size image.

[Tal]

St Kitts FC?

[simonnatur]

Doubt this will be of use to the thread, but here goes anyway in case anyone interested.

I watched  a race a few weeks back in which a horse called Corporal Maddox got away slowly and was held up in rear for most of race before coming very wide to finish very strongly and take 3rd or 4th.

I set up a Nag Me alert  and sod's law being what it is, missed the email alert on the day of the next race 28/11/12 13.00 Lingfield -  it opened 9/4 and of course won at SP of 5/4

Point being, the race was practically an action replay of the first race - apart from the winning bit. Thought this might be an interesting in running play for future reference.

Race video is available on sportinglife.com if you have a skybet account

[Chompy]

Re: Cardiff, they've won all nine home games obv and have led at half-time in six of those. They're defo king of the early goals, so what about the 11-8 h-t/f-t with Laddies?

[Tal]

Your roving chess reporter is not doing much roving ATM. In fact, he is positively roveless.

Train has stopped because of congestion (I assume they mean traffic, else there will need to be a train sized tub of Vick's Vaporub to-hand) at Birkhampstead.

Missing my connection as and when we do get moving and the connecting train runs once an hour.

 

Ah well...

[tikay]

Re: Cardiff, they've won all nine home games obv and have led at half-time in six of those. They're defo king of the early goals, so what about the 11-8 h-t/f-t with Laddies?

That seems better value, but I don't know the maths of 11/8 ht/ft versus 8/13 outright. Probably the same thing?

PS - you mentioned " Radio Fens FM" earlier. You were not serious, were you?

Radio Fens FM, you have your own radio station out there?

[bookiebasher]

Name that ground

Click to see full-size image.

Notts County for a wild guess

[Chompy]

Re: Cardiff, they've won all nine home games obv and have led at half-time in six of those. They're defo king of the early goals, so what about the 11-8 h-t/f-t with Laddies?

That seems better value, but I don't know the maths of 11/8 ht/ft versus 8/13 outright. Probably the same thing?

PS - you mentioned " Radio Fens FM" earlier. You were not serious, were you?

Radio Fens FM, you have your own radio station out there?

 

RECOMMENDED BET £24 @ 11-8

[redarmi]

Re: Cardiff, they've won all nine home games obv and have led at half-time in six of those. They're defo king of the early goals, so what about the 11-8 h-t/f-t with Laddies?

That seems better value, but I don't know the maths of 11/8 ht/ft versus 8/13 outright. Probably the same thing?

Noooooooooooooo.  You are making the mistake of equating big prices with value.  Value is just the relation ship between the price offered and the real probability   In this case if they were a true 8/13 shot then they should be roughly 2.44 to win  at -FT.  It actually turns out the market agrees with Aaron and Cardiff are close to 1/2 shots today now in Asia and on BF so we may have missed a trick and the 11/8 is a decent way of nicking the old price but it is still fairly close although Chompy's argument is somewhat persuasive.

As an aside things like -FT bets are almost never value unless the original price has moved and it is a way of getting an old stale price because they bet these things to 115-118% where as main markets you can bet as low as 101%