Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Summary as at 1100, Monday 3rd December

We lost £112 yesterday.

3 bets completed, all three lost. So far in December we have backed exactly ONE winner from 22, though if we discount related stuff, it is a far more respectable 1 winner from 12.

We don’t do bad beat tales, but the NY Knicks were cruising then took their foot off the gas, & the manner of the Detroit Lions bet losing was quite extraordinary.

So a busy weekend, & the only winner all weekend came from……….claypole. Go figure.

 

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[RickBFA]

I have a question for the more experienced contributors on football betting.

Would you always wait until friday or saturday to place a bet on weekend football to get more knowledge about team news, conditions etc?

Perhaps I could give an example, a couple of days ago I posted 3 possible bets for this weekend. Dag and Red were 11/4 and I liked that price. It's dropped now to 11/5.

I've had some at 11/4 but I know Bobby made a comment about one of the other bets, wanting seeing squad/team news for the Sheff Utd v Port Vale game before betting. (Port Vale have also dropped from 9/2 to 4/1).

I guess its a balance between the price and how much value that is perceived to be on say, 4 days before the game (with limited information) and what the price may change to (with clearer information) say 1 day before?

Naive to back football to early??

Hi Rick,

I think there are different answers to different games really. If you are wanting to get with a team in midweek for their weekend game because their oppos have had a price changing result or injury/suspension then getting on then is the way to go before the market spots what you have spotted. Also if the price is standout in very few places it is probably better to get on early as there is usually a falling in line with each other nearer the games.

There is a brill example here with the West Ham bet that Bazza has put up against Liverpool after Suarez got a suspension for the game. In that game you had to bet then because the 5/2 couldn't last and was deffo a neglected price and spotted by someone doing a great piece of work that the firms hadn't reacted to

The other side is say your Port Vale fancy, in general I think that waiting in cup games until you have a better idea of the teams/squads is more important than betting early. With the Port Vale bet early in the week there are just too many variations of team news to be confident. In that spot I would rather wait until I know more about the teams and be happy to take 4/1 instead of 9/2. The price will probably drift if the news goes against your team so you can just make a much more informed bet with the likely teams and the advantage you have again is if you are on the ball you might still be able to bet at the old price if the news is good for your fancy.

Cup matches are a mare for compilers to put out because you end up with a kind of middle ground initial set of prices because you are guessing at that stage which teams will be strong. The best example is probably the Carling Cup rounds when Prem teams are put in as tho they are all going to play weak teams. If you find one or two that don't then the prices are usually much too big and more and more these days Prem squads are so strong that their back up players have values in the millions. Looking back on this thread I think we backed a strong West Brom team at evens to win away at Yeovil, it sounds ridic really given the way their seasons have gone since that game but even there we placed it on the morning of the game and from memory it went off about 4/6.

How sick was that Vale game btw? ;o(

Thanks for the reply (and Redarmi BTW).

You make perfect sense.

Yes, real shame about the Port Vale result. I was out and checked at 89 mins they were 1-0 up. Look again 6 mins later and United scored twice :-(

[TL900]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/toronto-raptors-at-denver-nuggets/total-points

Absolutely love the over in this game tonight. Niether team plays defence, and both teams play really fast paced. Will be a mass brawl shootout. Both defences allow over 100 points a game on average vs worse offences than on show tonight.

We already have a 2pt edge on the market and I expect it to be even bigger come gametime

Suggest O200 with ladbrokes. Im in for 5units

Lets bounce back from last night, gl

[TL900]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/toronto-raptors-at-denver-nuggets/total-points

Absolutely love the over in this game tonight. Niether team plays defence, and both teams play really fast paced. Will be a mass brawl shootout. Both defences allow over 100 points a game on average vs worse offences than on show tonight.

We already have a 2pt edge on the market and I expect it to be even bigger come gametime

Suggest O200 with ladbrokes. Im in for 5units

Lets bounce back from last night, gl

Laddies has moved to 202.5, only place left to get 200 is coral

[kukushkin88]

Very interesting night on the NFL, it´s really changed the shape of things in the NFC. I think I´ve found a bit of value in a market that has significant implications for our San Francisco bet. I really think Seattle are worth a look for the NFC. They have a serious chance to win out now and if San Francisco don´t win at New England that gives them the division.

What do people think of Seattle @ 14/1 for the NFC? If they win out it´s a massive price, if they win 3 out of 4 then it´s possibly a little on the skinny side/about right but that makes it a bet in my book. Don´t want to place it without comments from the usual suspects as my experience is much more in handicap/points betting and the others will have a much better idea of if this is truly value or not.

Spent a bit more time researching this and talked myself in to having a decent bet. How would people price up the SF @ Seattle game at the moment? Surely SF aren´t better than 2.5 point favs there?

[TightEnd]

Seattle's defense is terrific, and will keep them in most games

They also have a big home field advantage in Seattle. Very loud indeed. If you KNEW they'd play a play off game at home then 14-1 looks very interesting

SF would be very modest favourites away at Seattle



NFC (seed as it stands)

Giants - 4

San Fran 2

Atlanta 1

Packers/Chicago 3

Wildcards

Green Bay/Chicago 5
Seattle 6

Maybe Tampa, Maybe Washington

is what it looks like playing out as

So Seattle would have to travel in the Wild Card Round, probably as the sixth seed which will mean most likely a journey to Chicago or Green Bay. Both games would be winnable

Atlanta are well placed to have the 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs

Seattle as 6 would then go to Atlanta...have completely underestimated Atlanta all year.


Basically I think 14-1 is a sporting bet, in part because they'd currently avoid the 49ers until the NFC Conference game

you then have the upside that if things fall their way, primarily the 49ers losing on the East Coast to the Patriots, then they could win the division. I'd say not, but that's gravy for any Seattle bet

Thread is on the 49ers which was probably a press at 8-1 for the superbowl, or would be if we weren't maxed out, but Seattle do look interesting

[outragous76]

Newcastle vs Wigan

Wigan @4.2 on bf

Because Newcastle are woeful

[bobby1]

There were some truly insane endings in the NFL yesterday Tony. There must have been several multi million pounds swing games with Kuku's Detroit bet being just about the most ludicrous, Indy had gone perfect/perfect so many downs to get within 5 points and with 4 seconds left on the clock needed a TD. The play was bit of a free for all and the winning pass took place well after the clock had expired which is legal as there is no final whistle. In the end he threw it to a guy 2 yards in font of him as Detroit were manning the end zone and he still managed to score untouched. You beat the line by 2 1/2 points too, sigh.

The San Fran was nearer debacle, leading 10-2 they called a play that was just not needed (we are getting to that time of year when coaches start to have brain farts trying to show how clever they can be) and from having the ball and an 8 point lead they managed to give away a TD a 2 point conversion miss fg to win the game and finally succumbed to a Legatron 54 yard field goal kick that went over the goal by miles, it would probably have still gone thru from about 65 yards.

It would have been a travesty if Philly hadn't covered the hcap after giving up a td on a fumble return late in the game and Rich was right Dallas just cannot be trusted to do the simplest things. The run of events leading to the kick return for  TD with 30 seconds left was almost Marx brothersesque. Trying  to kill the clock by running into the pack with inside a minute left just to take time off the clock the Dallas rb managed to have a run for MINUS 11 yards ( basically, all he has to do is get the ball and fall over to keep the clock ticking) which meant the punter didn't have the leg to kick the ball thru the Philly end zone where it couldn't be returned and instead got it to the 2 yard line where the kick returner ran it back for a 98 yard touchdown. They then had a chance of an onside kick to try to win the game if they could get another possesion.

There must have been a small nation's deficit swing in bets around the world on just those three games alone.

[TightEnd]

I thought the Philly bet on the handicap was the most outstanding NFL bet I have seen all season

I bottled it on here though, wasn't strident enough, should have just insisted (or harped on about it) on the maximum in repeated posts

A slightly more confident team would have scooped at 9/2 on the outright too

[Chompy]

Guessing Philly went short IR? Easy green-up for 9-2 outright backers in that case.

Good shout anyway sir.

[TightEnd]

Arsenal have travelled to Greece without 9 of the 11 who started on Satruday for the dead rubber with Olympiakos tomorrow night

Olympiakos can be backed at 2-1

In games like this, and with so many "dead" games this week in the final round of matches, what should a punter's strategy be on such games

Assume that the side qualified/resting players are to be opposed? Or regard that as a bit of a "gamblers fallacy"?

[TightEnd]

One more thing on Seattle

They have the baddest of hard dudes at RB, Marshawn Lynch. This season he averages nearly 5 yards a carry..after contact! After contact! Not the easiest man to bring down....

If they do have to play away in bad weather in the play offs (Chicago, Green Bay) he's your man, and that's your offense to keep hold of it and play low risk

I am warming to them, I must admit

[Karabiner]

Arsenal have travelled to Greece without 9 of the 11 who started on Satruday for the dead rubber with Olympiakos tomorrow night

Olympiakos can be backed at 2-1

In games like this, and with so many "dead" games this week in the final round of matches, what should a punter's strategy be on such games

Assume that the side qualified/resting players are to be opposed? Or regard that as a bit of a "gamblers fallacy"?

I would suggest that 2/1 Olypiakos is max-bet material as we have a shocking record against them even fielding full-strength teams.

Rumour has it that Squillaci plays too which makes it even more of a max in my eyes.

[kukushkin88]

Seattle's defense is terrific, and will keep them in most games

They also have a big home field advantage in Seattle. Very loud indeed. If you KNEW they'd play a play off game at home then 14-1 looks very interesting

SF would be very modest favourites away at Seattle



NFC (seed as it stands)

Giants - 4

San Fran 2

Atlanta 1

Packers/Chicago 3

Wildcards

Green Bay/Chicago 5
Seattle 6

Maybe Tampa, Maybe Washington

is what it looks like playing out as

So Seattle would have to travel in the Wild Card Round, probably as the sixth seed which will mean most likely a journey to Chicago or Green Bay. Both games would be winnable

Atlanta are well placed to have the 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs

Seattle as 6 would then go to Atlanta...have completely underestimated Atlanta all year.


Basically I think 14-1 is a sporting bet, in part because they'd currently avoid the 49ers until the NFC Conference game

you then have the upside that if things fall their way, primarily the 49ers losing on the East Coast to the Patriots, then they could win the division. I'd say not, but that's gravy for any Seattle bet

Thread is on the 49ers which was probably a press at 8-1 for the superbowl, or would be if we weren't maxed out, but Seattle do look interesting

Hi Tighty, I´m really keen on this one. They have 3 out of 4 remaining games at home (where they are 100%) vs Zona, St Louis and SF and then Buffalo away. If they win these the number 2 seed, crazy as it sounds, is very realistic. They have the tie breaker on GB and Chicago (I am right in thinking this is how it works if it goes 11-5?). New York have to go to Washington/Atlanta and Baltimore who´ll need a result in that one for their own seeding. If this did happen they could conceivably get home advantage throughout as Atlanta are definitely vulnerable to a top team (GB or NYG) for example in the play-offs. A few sizeable ifs and buts but 14´s is big and they have still have a chance with that D and Marshawn Lynch even if they have to do it the Wildcard way.

[Nico29]

Newcastle vs Wigan

Wigan @4.2 on bf

Because Newcastle are woeful

I fancy Wigan but have played with 365 on the asians @1.875/7/8-must get a 188 account as they are 1.9/9/10.

I backed Wigan versus City last week and for the first 60 minutes they were the better team.

Bad finishing and City's better class did for them, but overall I was really impressed with Martinez's side.

Newcastle have a terrible injury record at the moment, and altho Wigan have problems in that area too,they aren't missing such key squad members as the home side are.

Newcastle this season are certainly no Man City. Yet the markets seem to indicate they are far the better side here, almost as if they haven't priced in those injury problems.

I have dabbled on Wigan at 4.1 on the machine and have even had a flutter on-1@11.0.

However, I think the main value is in backing Wigan on the asians as the draw is a huge player here too.

Would recommend Wigan+0.5 on the asian handicap@1.875+.

Like most of the bookies that offer this bet in similar markets, I make it nearer a 8/11-4/6 shot at best.

Probs wld have a nifty on it.

Other peeps thoughts?