Tips for Tikay

[Karabiner]

Arsenal have travelled to Greece without 9 of the 11 who started on Satruday for the dead rubber with Olympiakos tomorrow night

Olympiakos can be backed at 2-1

In games like this, and with so many "dead" games this week in the final round of matches, what should a punter's strategy be on such games

Assume that the side qualified/resting players are to be opposed? Or regard that as a bit of a "gamblers fallacy"?

I would suggest that 2/1 Olypiakos is max-bet material as we have a shocking record against them even fielding full-strength teams.

Rumour has it that Squillaci plays too which makes it even more of a max in my eyes.

With our strongest team playing like amatuers at the moment, I fancy a few fringe players will be going all out to impress. They will be playing to win the group and Olym are already out, so have nothing to play for.

Even having backed Swansea vs us on Saturday, I fancy a max bet on Olym is still folly.......FWIW of c

I think playing in the Europa league (which Olympiakos will definitely do if they beat us tomorrow) means that they certainly have something to play for as I imagine they would welcome the income from those games whereas we do not appear to be too bothered about winning the group judging by all of the ommissions from our squad which definitely needed rotation anyway.

Let's face it winning the group does not necessarily guarantee an easier game.

[kukushkin88]

Rather than backing Seattle @ 14-1 for the NFC, wouldn't you be better off backing them at 33-1 outright? Or 33-1 each-way 1/2 1-2?

They´re definite dogs against the AFC big boys in New Orleans so I don´t think so. My bet is based around the premise that the likelihood of them being at home is the playoffs is being substantially underestimated at present.

[Karabiner]

2/1 Olympiacos long gone now top-priced 13/8 which looks about right to me.

If I was given a free bet on the game I'd take it though.

[Horneris]

Please don't back Seattle, I absolutely hate them.

If they go to the superbowl it will be a dark day for the sport.

[tikay]

Sorry Gents, been rather busy today, & not had time to work the thread.

I'll try & work through it now, but if there is any stuff for tonight, I may not have time to process it. I'll try though. We need some winnas.

[tikay]

Very interesting night on the NFL, it´s really changed the shape of things in the NFC. I think I´ve found a bit of value in a market that has significant implications for our San Francisco bet. I really think Seattle are worth a look for the NFC. They have a serious chance to win out now and if San Francisco don´t win at New England that gives them the division.

What do people think of Seattle @ 14/1 for the NFC? If they win out it´s a massive price, if they win 3 out of 4 then it´s possibly a little on the skinny side/about right but that makes it a bet in my book. Don´t want to place it without comments from the usual suspects as my experience is much more in handicap/points betting and the others will have a much better idea of if this is truly value or not.

No need to rush tonight, but I'm quite keen on this.

I'm also wondering if we should top up the 49-ers bet.

Either or both, views welcome.

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/toronto-raptors-at-denver-nuggets/total-points

Absolutely love the over in this game tonight. Niether team plays defence, and both teams play really fast paced. Will be a mass brawl shootout. Both defences allow over 100 points a game on average vs worse offences than on show tonight.

We already have a 2pt edge on the market and I expect it to be even bigger come gametime

Suggest O200 with ladbrokes. Im in for 5units

Lets bounce back from last night, gl

Hi Tom,

I've been AWOL all day, & had not seen this. The best (10/11) line is now 201.

Still a wager?

We have all evening to decide, it is a 2.05 am tip-off. ) Liking that NBA lingo?

[TheDazzler]

2/1 Olympiacos long gone now top-priced 13/8 which looks about right to me.

If I was given a free bet on the game I'd take it though.

Bugger, I missed the boat. Great spot though by yourself and Mr Tightend.

On tonights game, it's no bet for me but I guess if I had to choose, I'd be opposing Newcastle.

[tikay]

Seattle's defense is terrific, and will keep them in most games

They also have a big home field advantage in Seattle. Very loud indeed. If you KNEW they'd play a play off game at home then 14-1 looks very interesting

SF would be very modest favourites away at Seattle



NFC (seed as it stands)

Giants - 4

San Fran 2

Atlanta 1

Packers/Chicago 3

Wildcards

Green Bay/Chicago 5
Seattle 6

Maybe Tampa, Maybe Washington

is what it looks like playing out as

So Seattle would have to travel in the Wild Card Round, probably as the sixth seed which will mean most likely a journey to Chicago or Green Bay. Both games would be winnable

Atlanta are well placed to have the 1 seed and home field advantage throughout the playoffs

Seattle as 6 would then go to Atlanta...have completely underestimated Atlanta all year.


Basically I think 14-1 is a sporting bet, in part because they'd currently avoid the 49ers until the NFC Conference game

you then have the upside that if things fall their way, primarily the 49ers losing on the East Coast to the Patriots, then they could win the division. I'd say not, but that's gravy for any Seattle bet

Thread is on the 49ers which was probably a press at 8-1 for the superbowl, or would be if we weren't maxed out, but Seattle do look interesting

The 49ers are now 6/1 best. We are on at 6.8.


http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/superbowl/winner

[kukushkin88]

Very interesting night on the NFL, it´s really changed the shape of things in the NFC. I think I´ve found a bit of value in a market that has significant implications for our San Francisco bet. I really think Seattle are worth a look for the NFC. They have a serious chance to win out now and if San Francisco don´t win at New England that gives them the division.

What do people think of Seattle @ 14/1 for the NFC? If they win out it´s a massive price, if they win 3 out of 4 then it´s possibly a little on the skinny side/about right but that makes it a bet in my book. Don´t want to place it without comments from the usual suspects as my experience is much more in handicap/points betting and the others will have a much better idea of if this is truly value or not.

No need to rush tonight, but I'm quite keen on this.

I'm also wondering if we should top up the 49-ers bet.

Either or both, views welcome.

Think Seattle might be on hold for now, I´d really like to know what Red thinks about it. I think 49ers would have been a very fair top up at 8´s but I don´t much like the 6´s for the same reasons that I am so keen on the Seahawks, they may not even win the division imo.

[tikay]

I thought the Philly bet on the handicap was the most outstanding NFL bet I have seen all season

I bottled it on here though, wasn't strident enough, should have just insisted (or harped on about it) on the maximum in repeated posts

A slightly more confident team would have scooped at 9/2 on the outright too

My fault really Rich, your case was very well made, but I sort of bottled it initially when resistance was encountered, then forgot all about it.

Sorry bud, it was a tremendous tip.

[tikay]

Arsenal have travelled to Greece without 9 of the 11 who started on Satruday for the dead rubber with Olympiakos tomorrow night

Olympiakos can be backed at 2-1

In games like this, and with so many "dead" games this week in the final round of matches, what should a punter's strategy be on such games

Assume that the side qualified/resting players are to be opposed? Or regard that as a bit of a "gamblers fallacy"?

I would suggest that 2/1 Olypiakos is max-bet material as we have a shocking record against them even fielding full-strength teams.

Rumour has it that Squillaci plays too which makes it even more of a max in my eyes.

(And to Tighty).

Boat well & truly missed guys, 13/8 best now.

Sorry, but hopefully plenty of regulars got on.



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/olympiakos-v-arsenal/winner

[tikay]

Newcastle vs Wigan

Wigan @4.2 on bf

Because Newcastle are woeful

I fancy Wigan but have played with 365 on the asians @1.875/7/8-must get a 188 account as they are 1.9/9/10.

I backed Wigan versus City last week and for the first 60 minutes they were the better team.

Bad finishing and City's better class did for them, but overall I was really impressed with Martinez's side.

Newcastle have a terrible injury record at the moment, and altho Wigan have problems in that area too,they aren't missing such key squad members as the home side are.

Newcastle this season are certainly no Man City. Yet the markets seem to indicate they are far the better side here, almost as if they haven't priced in those injury problems.

I have dabbled on Wigan at 4.1 on the machine and have even had a flutter on-1@11.0.

However, I think the main value is in backing Wigan on the asians as the draw is a huge player here too.

Would recommend Wigan+0.5 on the asian handicap@1.875+.

Like most of the bookies that offer this bet in similar markets, I make it nearer a 8/11-4/6 shot at best.

Probs wld have a nifty on it.

Other peeps thoughts?

Thanks Dom.

Anyone?

Currently 10/11 or thereabouts is available.

We have 30 minutes to decide.

Newcastle have been pretty dire of late, & are close to the relegation zone, equal on points with Wigan.

I can't help but think Newcastle will come out firing on all cylinders tonight, but I agree, Wigan looked a handful against Man City for the first hour.

I'm not sure it warrants a bet, but open to views.

[tikay]

If it hasn't been spotted already.......

Lincoln v Woking on Tuesday night.  Over 2.5 goals @ 1.62

Lincoln's last 6 matches have had 6, 4, 5, 5, 3, 3 in them.

Woking's last 6 matches have had 7, 7, 3, 6, 4, 3 in them.

Surely must be a goal fest this one.  Not the best price but on those stats there has to be goals I think.

Suggest a few bob on this Mr Tikay, my mate is a Lincoln fan and he says they can't defend to save their lives!

Thanks Matt, looks good  - bookmarked for tomorrow, a bit rushed right now.

[tikay]

I didn't have all of those Phil (I was on Rams +7.5, followed Tighty with Philly +10.5, swore a lot and then unswore on that one, and the under really big).

 I was just thinking you have to be positive and trying to imagine that poor guy (he must be out there somewhere.

yes, there must be someone somewhere that cannot believe how he ran yesterday. I suppose the counterbalance of that is Tikay who has ten pound notes stuffed into his underpants today after his own personal betting weekend ended up with him picking a 28/1 winner that won hard held.

Post more Tony ;-)

Thanks Phil.

If I told the tale of all the good punting fortune I enjoyed yesterday, nobody would believe it.

Even a blind dog & all that......