Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

[typhoon13]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

Big LOLZ

[Doobs]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

11/10 looks a bad price when India are 2.5 and England 3.5 on Betfair.  The DNB market is thin on Betfair but guess you should get quite a bit above 6/5 on there DNB.  I'd be asking for 2.3 and if I didn't get it no harm done.

[tikay]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

11/10 looks a bad price when India are 2.5 and England 3.5 on Betfair.  The DNB market is thin on Betfair but guess you should get quite a bit above 6/5 on there DNB.  I'd be asking for 2.3 and if I didn't get it no harm done.

Yes, that was the point I was trying to make, badly as always.

[Doobs]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

Big LOLZ

No need for that.  Cheers

[typhoon13]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

Big LOLZ

No need for that.  Cheers

I must apologise

Try to see the funny side or does everything have to be serious around here

[FUN4FRASER]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

11/10 looks a bad price when India are 2.5 and England 3.5 on Betfair.  The DNB market is thin on Betfair but guess you should get quite a bit above 6/5 on there DNB.  I'd be asking for 2.3 and if I didn't get it no harm done.

Cheers Dave...can see that now ...I didnt have chance to scrutinise all the match prices earlier  ( I just think the draw could be a likely result )

[tikay]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

11/10 looks a bad price when India are 2.5 and England 3.5 on Betfair.  The DNB market is thin on Betfair but guess you should get quite a bit above 6/5 on there DNB.  I'd be asking for 2.3 and if I didn't get it no harm done.

Cheers Dave...can see that now ...I didnt have chance to scrutinise all the match prices earlier  ( I just think the draw could be a likely result )

Exactly - they are different bets, & I did not know how to equate the two. The India lay just seemed better somehow, but I don't know the maths.

[tikay]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

Big LOLZ

No need for that.  Cheers

I must apologise

Try to see the funny side or does everything have to be serious around here

You don't need to apologise on my behalf, Trev, & we like plenty of humour here, especially as I'm probably the only one on the thread who still  does not know what the lol was for! But I'm pretty good at getting these things round my neck.

Next case.

[Doobs]

Thanks Fraser, I guess that works, too.

Mathematically, it seems worse, though. I'm not sure if it is, though.

11/10 looks a bad price when India are 2.5 and England 3.5 on Betfair.  The DNB market is thin on Betfair but guess you should get quite a bit above 6/5 on there DNB.  I'd be asking for 2.3 and if I didn't get it no harm done.

Cheers Dave...can see that now ...I didnt have chance to scrutinise all the match prices earlier  ( I just think the draw could be a likely result )

Exactly - they are different bets, & I did not know how to equate the two. The India lay just seemed better somehow, but I don't know the maths.

I have never done this maths before, but will give it a go.

If we assume the betfair odds are correct.

If we put £1 on at 3.5 we get £3.5 back 28.574% of the time, so our expectation is £1.

If we put £1 on DNB, we get £1 back 31.746% of the time, so we need to solve so that 28.574% x the odds = 68p.  .68/.28574 = 2.38.

So we need odds of 2.38 on draw no bet?

We can probably take a bit less as we don't pay commission on our £1 back.  If we allow for 5% commission on our winnings, we should be happy right down to 2.32.  So I accidently got it about right saying we should ask for 2.3.

If DNB is you favoured means of betting, and I can see advantages, ask for 2.32 and if it doesn't get laid then so be it.

Apologies if my maths is bad somewhere

[tikay]

Thanks Doobs, I am now suitably enlightened.

I think I prefer the original idea though, even though there seems little between the two.

I think a lay of Inda is my preferred route.

[The Camel]

"No QB since at least 2008 has a higher Total QBR than Colin Kaepernick through first four career starts."




This week is the big test.

Patriots away.

I am stunned the 49ers have drifted since we backed them.

Fair enough, they lost to the Rams, but Kaepernick has been outstanding and Atlanta have proved they will be the weakest number 1 seed in years. (and they are still just about catchable - Falcons could easily lose 2 of 3, but we would need 49ers to win out if that happens.)

I think if the 48ers win on Sunday, they'll go favourites for the whole shebang.

If they lose they'll stay at the same price.

I suggest topping up slightly at above 7/1 on Betfair.

[TightEnd]

"No QB since at least 2008 has a higher Total QBR than Colin Kaepernick through first four career starts."




This week is the big test.

Patriots away.

I am stunned the 49ers have drifted since we backed them.

Fair enough, they lost to the Rams, but Kaepernick has been outstanding and Atlanta have proved they will be the weakest number 1 seed in years. (and they are still just about catchable - Falcons could easily lose 2 of 3, but we would need 49ers to win out if that happens.)

I think if the 48ers win on Sunday, they'll go favourites for the whole shebang.

If they lose they'll stay at the same price.

I suggest topping up slightly at above 7/1 on Betfair.

As I said this morning they've drifted because they are underdogs at New England then play Seattle next week

Lose both and Seattle likely win the division (Seattle have Buffalo this week)

I personally don't think they'll lose both, but its a crucial fortnight

[LeKnave]

If they lose they'll stay at the same price

surely they will further drift if they lose and seattle win.

[The Camel]

"No QB since at least 2008 has a higher Total QBR than Colin Kaepernick through first four career starts."




This week is the big test.

Patriots away.

I am stunned the 49ers have drifted since we backed them.

Fair enough, they lost to the Rams, but Kaepernick has been outstanding and Atlanta have proved they will be the weakest number 1 seed in years. (and they are still just about catchable - Falcons could easily lose 2 of 3, but we would need 49ers to win out if that happens.)

I think if the 48ers win on Sunday, they'll go favourites for the whole shebang.

If they lose they'll stay at the same price.

I suggest topping up slightly at above 7/1 on Betfair.

As I said this morning they've drifted because they are underdogs at New England then play Seattle next week

Lose both and Seattle likely win the division (Seattle have Buffalo this week)

I personally don't think they'll lose both, but its a crucial fortnight

If they lose to the Pats (without serious injuries obv), I'll be having my max on them if they are underdogs at Seattle.