Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Betfair currently 2.0, a few minutes ago anyway

Best traditional price 5/6


Been a weird day really, I couldn't understand England as the outsider of 3 two hours ago once they'd scored 330


Lets hope thread brings home a series of nice bets on this over the weekend, I fancy it might have a twist or two yet

[horseplayer]

Since World Cup win, Gambhir, Sehwag, Tendulkar and Dhoni have collectively scored 2 centuries in 118 Test innings

[Doobs]

thanks tony

It raises an interesting point, which if someone could put the time ino im sure loads of us noobs woudl appreciate.

Keith made a point yesterday about "pricing up the market yourself" to identify value.

in my head, I think I can identify value - but its def only gut feel and no science.

Is there an idiots guide to pricing a market? Maybe if someone could give us an idea with a few examples

eg - a football game (2 horse race)
   - an 8 runner horse race
  -others?

I often hear a market in priced to say 110% - what does that mean and how do you work it out?

If anyone has time, id really appreciate thoughts on the above, this thread is really starting to give me a genuine interest in this stuff!

To work out the overround you do the following.

Say the market is     5/4,        6/4 and   3/1 in a 3 horse race.

The overround is 4/(4+5) + 4/(4+6)+ 1/(1+3)
which is equal to    0.44     +    0.4   +    0.25
which equals 1.09

That means the market is priced at 109%.

So the bookies have a theoretical margin of 9% on that market.   

It is only theoretical, as it is possible that the 5/4 horse should be 4/6 and all the money goes on that horse.

[Tal]

I just about managed to get my head round it about 60 pages ago:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1676451#msg1676451

Three horse race as well, so it should be apposite. It is identifying how many times if you ran the race a given number of times A would win, B would win and C would win, based on their odds. You add them together and realise it is more than the number of times you were running the race, which means the bookies are pocketing the difference.

[doubleup]

Is there an idiots guide to pricing a market? Maybe if someone could give us an idea with a few examples

eg - a football game (2 horse race)
  

A football game is a three horse race!

Idiots price up football matches by first working out the number of goals each side is likely to score on average (the difficult bit) then putting that info into a spreadsheet that works out the probability of every score (usually based on the poisson distribution function in excel).  All these probs are added up to provide the odds of home away and draw. 

[TL900]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/golden-state-warriors-at-orlando-magic/point-spread

Golden State Warriors travel to Orlando in decent form having won 5 on the bounce (all on the road) and are turning a few heads around the NBA. They are a very balanced team and play both offence and defence well and will be too much for the Magic tonight.

GSW are 9-4 on the road this year and last time out managed to pull off a huge win over the Heat in Miami so confidence will be very high. Magic on the other hand are a measly 4-6 at home and not playing with any sort of conviction.

Laddies still have the line at -4 so I got on as I think it will move to 6+ by tipoff.

Warriors have lost 1 game in their last 9 and funnily enough it was vs Magic at home, but I think that was just a bad day at the office for them which they will be looking to put right tonight.

In for 3 units GSW -4 with ladbrokes

I reallyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy wana bet against the Lakers again, but I just can't bring myself to back the wizards at only 5.5 so we will give them a night off

Keeping my eye on a couple more may be posting again later if the lines move in our favour.

GL

[Doobs]

I just about managed to get my head round it about 60 pages ago:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1676451#msg1676451

Three horse race as well, so it should be apposite. It is identifying how many times if you ran the race a given number of times A would win, B would win and C would win, based on their odds. You add them together and realise it is more than the number of times you were running the race, which means the bookies are pocketing the difference.

Second this, I didn't try and find it this morning as the thread moves too quickly.

[Tal]

I just about managed to get my head round it about 60 pages ago:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56581.msg1676451#msg1676451

Three horse race as well, so it should be apposite. It is identifying how many times if you ran the race a given number of times A would win, B would win and C would win, based on their odds. You add them together and realise it is more than the number of times you were running the race, which means the bookies are pocketing the difference.

Second this, I didn't try and find it this morning as the thread moves too quickly.

...and as that is at least partly my fault, seemed only right I should dig it out

[Tal]

Bazzaboy, Snowball, anyone else: Hudson to beat Wade @ 4.2 on betfair any value?

[millidonk]

Oioiiii. Early NBA picks, that's what we like to see.

[TL900]

Oioiiii. Early NBA picks, that's what we like to see.

Pressure on now i guess :p

Normally I will post either really early 9-10am or 11-12pm dependant on how the market looks etc.

Made it my mission to get T4T out of the NBA hole for life.

GL milli

[The Camel]

thanks tony

It raises an interesting point, which if someone could put the time ino im sure loads of us noobs woudl appreciate.

Keith made a point yesterday about "pricing up the market yourself" to identify value.

in my head, I think I can identify value - but its def only gut feel and no science.

Is there an idiots guide to pricing a market? Maybe if someone could give us an idea with a few examples

eg - a football game (2 horse race)
   - an 8 runner horse race
  -others?

I often hear a market in priced to say 110% - what does that mean and how do you work it out?

If anyone has time, id really appreciate thoughts on the above, this thread is really starting to give me a genuine interest in this stuff!

To work out the overround you do the following.

Say the market is     5/4,        6/4 and   3/1 in a 3 horse race.

The overround is 4/(4+5) + 4/(4+6)+ 1/(1+3)
which is equal to    0.44     +    0.4   +    0.25
which equals 1.09

That means the market is priced at 109%.

So the bookies have a theoretical margin of 9% on that market.   

It is only theoretical, as it is possible that the 5/4 horse should be 4/6 and all the money goes on that horse.

If you price up an event to 90% instead of the mark up the bookies use, you will be more likely to find what you think is value

[TightEnd]

Bet365's PR Man

Steve Freeth ‏@stevefreeth65

Looking forward to the Darts,Taylor 2nd in liabilities behind Van Gerwen.Well done to punters who have backed the 4/1 shot at 100/1 down....


Fame for the Darts threadsters....

[Snowball]

Bazzaboy, Snowball, anyone else: Hudson to beat Wade @ 4.2 on betfair any value?

4.2 for someone thats 120+ in the World, never played on Tv and not pulling up any Trees off stage looks like a lay to me.Wades problems are well known and are factored into the price and then some.I hope Wade wins 3-0 with a good average so we can take him on in the next round or so

[tikay]

http://www.oddschecker.com/basketball/nba/golden-state-warriors-at-orlando-magic/point-spread

Golden State Warriors travel to Orlando in decent form having won 5 on the bounce (all on the road) and are turning a few heads around the NBA. They are a very balanced team and play both offence and defence well and will be too much for the Magic tonight.

GSW are 9-4 on the road this year and last time out managed to pull off a huge win over the Heat in Miami so confidence will be very high. Magic on the other hand are a measly 4-6 at home and not playing with any sort of conviction.

Laddies still have the line at -4 so I got on as I think it will move to 6+ by tipoff.

Warriors have lost 1 game in their last 9 and funnily enough it was vs Magic at home, but I think that was just a bad day at the office for them which they will be looking to put right tonight.

In for 3 units GSW -4 with ladbrokes

I reallyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy wana bet against the Lakers again, but I just can't bring myself to back the wizards at only 5.5 so we will give them a night off

Keeping my eye on a couple more may be posting again later if the lines move in our favour.

GL

Thanks Tom.

I need to get my head round your staking plan so we can bet accordingly, but we have gone for a small to medium bet here.

We have £44 @ 10/11 (Ladbrokes) Golden State Warriors over Orlando Magic.

Ladbrokes are the only book going -4, the rest are currently -4.5 or -5.

ON

Selection10/11 - Golden State Warriors

EventGolden State Warriors at Orlando Magic NBA

MarketPoint Spread
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Golden State Warriors
1 line at £44.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £44.00
Potential Return: £84.00
Time: 14/12/12 13:32
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000220