Tips for Tikay

[MahoganyVic]

Cheers. That is worrying to hear, but my first thought is that the price is out so I should lump on some more! I guess it was unlikely they would get the number 1 seed anyway, so hopefully he stays confident and not too much has been lost.

[Tal]

Latest chess report:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=58441.new#new

Absolutely cream crackered after a long day in London (or, to be more precise, approaching London, then a few hours less than I expected actually IN London).

Cliffs: Carlsen wins again, beating World Number 2. This is good.

[bobby1]

I have a question for the more experienced contributors on football betting.

Would you always wait until friday or saturday to place a bet on weekend football to get more knowledge about team news, conditions etc?

Perhaps I could give an example, a couple of days ago I posted 3 possible bets for this weekend. Dag and Red were 11/4 and I liked that price. It's dropped now to 11/5.

I've had some at 11/4 but I know Bobby made a comment about one of the other bets, wanting seeing squad/team news for the Sheff Utd v Port Vale game before betting. (Port Vale have also dropped from 9/2 to 4/1).

I guess its a balance between the price and how much value that is perceived to be on say, 4 days before the game (with limited information) and what the price may change to (with clearer information) say 1 day before?

Naive to back football to early??

Hi Rick,

I think there are different answers to different games really. If you are wanting to get with a team in midweek for their weekend game because their oppos have had a price changing result or injury/suspension then getting on then is the way to go before the market spots what you have spotted. Also if the price is standout in very few places it is probably better to get on early as there is usually a falling in line with each other nearer the games.

There is a brill example here with the West Ham bet that Bazza has put up against Liverpool after Suarez got a suspension for the game. In that game you had to bet then because the 5/2 couldn't last and was deffo a neglected price and spotted by someone doing a great piece of work that the firms hadn't reacted to

The other side is say your Port Vale fancy, in general I think that waiting in cup games until you have a better idea of the teams/squads is more important than betting early. With the Port Vale bet early in the week there are just too many variations of team news to be confident. In that spot I would rather wait until I know more about the teams and be happy to take 4/1 instead of 9/2. The price will probably drift if the news goes against your team so you can just make a much more informed bet with the likely teams and the advantage you have again is if you are on the ball you might still be able to bet at the old price if the news is good for your fancy.

Cup matches are a mare for compilers to put out because you end up with a kind of middle ground initial set of prices because you are guessing at that stage which teams will be strong. The best example is probably the Carling Cup rounds when Prem teams are put in as tho they are all going to play weak teams. If you find one or two that don't then the prices are usually much too big and more and more these days Prem squads are so strong that their back up players have values in the millions. Looking back on this thread I think we backed a strong West Brom team at evens to win away at Yeovil, it sounds ridic really given the way their seasons have gone since that game but even there we placed it on the morning of the game and from memory it went off about 4/6.

How sick was that Vale game btw? ;o(

[Tal]

As for tomorrow's games:

http://www.lbplay1.com/sportsbook/en-gb/Chess/London-Chess-ClassicChess/London-Chess-Classic-t210005396

One game stands out. Aronian has lost two on the bounce and is not playing to the level he can. Anand is not playing luminary chess either but is tough to beat.

Aronian is 2/1 to win. Anand is 7/1. Both those prices can't be right IMO. Everything suggests a draw: Aronian wants to get away from the goose egg/bagel/wooden spoon, Anand in 2012 draws more than Rolf Harris, Anand is just off the back of a six hour, 108-move game where he was fighting to save it for about four and a half hours and could likely do with an easier day, their record against each other has a lot of draws in it, neither player is showing swashbuckling attacking dynamism.

The draw is 8/15 and it is probably still on the long side. The average price of the draw is 1/2 and this game draws more frequently than most. I'm not going to recommend punting on 8/15 shots because I'm sure that way madness - and skintness - lies.

I really see the chances of each player winning as being closer than they have been priced. 2/1 Aronian just can't be right to me. He is not as likely to beat Anand as Nakamura is to beat Jones, and he is not more likely to win than Adams is to beat Polgar. Anand might be worth a fiver at 7/1, although in doing so we recognise that it is not a likely occurrence, for the reasons explained above.

I'll happily take views/advice on this situation tho: say we are talking about a home and away football team rather than chess. The home team has a great crowd (the White pieces) but is struggling for form. The away team can defend but can't score. Has nil-nil written all over it. Either side could nick a goal and there is a significant disparity between the home and away prices. Head to head has mainly been draws with a couple of wins each going back over the last ten games. Should we have a look at the away side just because we think the likelihood of either side winning is closer than the prices suggest? If the answer is No, don't bet on Anand, keep the fiver and save it for a hector drop goal.

Nothing else of any note that I can see - everything apart from the game above is priced about where In would expect - so it's a tiny ickle banzai-ette or nothing at all and cheer on Magnus in his big game against joint-leader Kramnik.

[Doobs]

As for tomorrow's games:

http://www.lbplay1.com/sportsbook/en-gb/Chess/London-Chess-ClassicChess/London-Chess-Classic-t210005396

One game stands out. Aronian has lost two on the bounce and is not playing to the level he can. Anand is not playing luminary chess either but is tough to beat.

Aronian is 2/1 to win. Anand is 7/1. Both those prices can't be right IMO. Everything suggests a draw: Aronian wants to get away from the goose egg/bagel/wooden spoon, Anand in 2012 draws more than Rolf Harris, Anand is just off the back of a six hour, 108-move game where he was fighting to save it for about four and a half hours and could likely do with an easier day, their record against each other has a lot of draws in it, neither player is showing swashbuckling attacking dynamism.

The draw is 8/15 and it is probably still on the long side. The average price of the draw is 1/2 and this game draws more frequently than most. I'm not going to recommend punting on 8/15 shots because I'm sure that way madness - and skintness - lies.

I really see the chances of each player winning as being closer than they have been priced. 2/1 Aronian just can't be right to me. He is not as likely to beat Anand as Nakamura is to beat Jones, and he is not more likely to win than Adams is to beat Polgar. Anand might be worth a fiver at 7/1, although in doing so we recognise that it is not a likely occurrence, for the reasons explained above.

I'll happily take views/advice on this situation tho: say we are talking about a home and away football team rather than chess. The home team has a great crowd (the White pieces) but is struggling for form. The away team can defend but can't score. Has nil-nil written all over it. Either side could nick a goal and there is a significant disparity between the home and away prices. Head to head has mainly been draws with a couple of wins each going back over the last ten games. Should we have a look at the away side just because we think the likelihood of either side winning is closer than the prices suggest? If the answer is No, don't bet on Anand, keep the fiver and save it for a hector drop goal.

Nothing else of any note that I can see - everything apart from the game above is priced about where In would expect - so it's a tiny ickle banzai-ette or nothing at all and cheer on Magnus in his big game against joint-leader Kramnik.

It is an 111% book and the draw is too long at 8/15. Can there by any value in the other two prices?

[The Camel]

Had a disappointing game. Alex Smith is safer option, but check-down small-ball offense won't win the NFC. Kaepernick gives the 49ers the best chance and long-term potential

Disagree, I think Kaepernick was excellent again (apart from one errant pitch out).

He went 21 for 32 and I counted 5 drops including one which would probably have been a td.

Harbaugh needs to take the leash off and let him loose.

Still a solid number 2 seed, Although no room for error in the 3 games apart from the NE one.

I think 8 is huge value.

[tikay]

The Dallas Cowboys are probably the only team in the National Football League without a true home-field advantage.  The 3-8 Philadelphia Eagles play the 5-6 Dallas Cowboys today.  The game is on Sunday Night Football (Channel 4 here).  Unfortunately, Dallas will find a way to lose this game and here is why.

No true home-field advantage.

Since the move to Cowboys Stadium in 2009 they Cowboys are 15-14 in that stadium.  After the Chicago Bears game, fans were saying it was more like a Bears home game than it was the Cowboys home game.  Best assumption here is the fact that regular fans cannot afford the ticket prices and that leave corporate types at the stadium to represent the loud and rowdy fans.  In this stadium, more trips, false starts, and confusion seem more present than on the road.  Not to mention that Cowboy fans tend to show up on the road more so than at home games.  Here’s an interesting fact to chew on as well.  At home quarterback Tony Romo has thrown 12 of his 15 interceptions.

It’s Sunday night football.  

The Cowboys haven’t won on Sunday night football in the two seasons Jason Garrett has been head coach, unless you count the Wednesday night kick off against the New York Giants in week 1. Dallas seems to play even more mediocre on prime time games as opposed to the rest of the time.

Jason Garrett still calls the plays and they still can’t score in the red-zone.

This is an obvious one.  Jason Garrett is still the head coach and still the offensive coordinator and main play caller for the Dallas Cowboys.  Jason Garrett hasn’t figured out how to clock manage as well as balance play call the games yet.  If most of the fans can figure out which play is coming next, than any defensive coordinator in the league knows what play is coming next.

The other problem is the Cowboys are still kicking field goals in the red-zone as opposed to scoring touchdowns.  Relying on kicker Dan Bailey to kick field goals is becoming an old hat.  A lot of fans like Bailey because he is consistent, one of the few who are on the team, however, most fans would prefer him kicking extra points instead of field goals.

Dallas still has no offensive line.

This one is another obvious one.  The offensive line has continually got worse as the season has gone on.  There is an obvious lack of depth at the position plus Bill Callahan who was supposed to save the Cowboys offensive line has turned around and decimated it just as he did in Nebraska when he was head coach there.  The Cowboys went out and signed a wide receiver this past week, and depth at wide receiver is there, but yet they still managed not to do anything to assist the offensive line.

Finally, Dallas has yet to put four good quarters together.

 One of the most noticeable things about the Dallas Cowboys this season, with the exception of week 1, is the fact that they either come out strong in the first half or they come out strong in the second half.  This team isn’t conditioned to go a full four quarters so they a half team.  They need to get it together and start putting four good quarters together.

These are the most obvious reasons why Dallas won’t win later today against the Philadelphia Eagles.  Look for the Eagles to squeak out a win, especially now that the Eagles are out of the playoff race this season, they will be playing spoiler and it starts tonight in Arlington.


For the Nit, Philly are +10.5. Crazy crazy crazy spread. No team in this division is a 10.5 point dog to another. No team. If I closed my eyes I could blast out a max bet here.

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/point-spread

For the Non nit, 9/2 on the outright is attractive

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/philadelphia-eagles-at-dallas-cowboys/winner


Philly are very disappointing this year. I know that, you know that. What is yet to be fully priced into spreads, partly because ice cream money comes every week for the Cowboys, is how disappointing they are.

This sparked quite an interesting & informative debate yesterday. For better or worse, having decided to back it, but not decided whether on the spread or outright, I then completely forgot about it.

Result was....


Eagles 33

Cowboys 38

So, non-nits would have lost.

Nits would have won, based upon......


For the Nit, Philly are +10.5. Crazy crazy crazy spread. No team in this division is a 10.5 point dog to another. No team. If I closed my eyes I could blast out a max bet here.



 

[Tal]

As for tomorrow's games:

http://www.lbplay1.com/sportsbook/en-gb/Chess/London-Chess-ClassicChess/London-Chess-Classic-t210005396

One game stands out. Aronian has lost two on the bounce and is not playing to the level he can. Anand is not playing luminary chess either but is tough to beat.

Aronian is 2/1 to win. Anand is 7/1. Both those prices can't be right IMO. Everything suggests a draw: Aronian wants to get away from the goose egg/bagel/wooden spoon, Anand in 2012 draws more than Rolf Harris, Anand is just off the back of a six hour, 108-move game where he was fighting to save it for about four and a half hours and could likely do with an easier day, their record against each other has a lot of draws in it, neither player is showing swashbuckling attacking dynamism.

The draw is 8/15 and it is probably still on the long side. The average price of the draw is 1/2 and this game draws more frequently than most. I'm not going to recommend punting on 8/15 shots because I'm sure that way madness - and skintness - lies.

I really see the chances of each player winning as being closer than they have been priced. 2/1 Aronian just can't be right to me. He is not as likely to beat Anand as Nakamura is to beat Jones, and he is not more likely to win than Adams is to beat Polgar. Anand might be worth a fiver at 7/1, although in doing so we recognise that it is not a likely occurrence, for the reasons explained above.

I'll happily take views/advice on this situation tho: say we are talking about a home and away football team rather than chess. The home team has a great crowd (the White pieces) but is struggling for form. The away team can defend but can't score. Has nil-nil written all over it. Either side could nick a goal and there is a significant disparity between the home and away prices. Head to head has mainly been draws with a couple of wins each going back over the last ten games. Should we have a look at the away side just because we think the likelihood of either side winning is closer than the prices suggest? If the answer is No, don't bet on Anand, keep the fiver and save it for a hector drop goal.

Nothing else of any note that I can see - everything apart from the game above is priced about where In would expect - so it's a tiny ickle banzai-ette or nothing at all and cheer on Magnus in his big game against joint-leader Kramnik.

It is an 111% book and the draw is too long at 8/15. Can there by any value in the other two prices?

This is exactly the kind of thing I need guidance on. 111% means overround? So your point is that there can't be even more equity in the market than there already is. OK. Think I get that.

I think what I'm saying is that, if they play 24 times, Aronian wins fewer than 8 and Anand wins more than 3. They draw more than 13. I'm not convinced the odds-setter has appreciated how much a draw suits both players and I'm not sure he has appreciated how unlikely it is that Aronian wil go all guns blazing at Anand (who I would expect to be strong enough in a level endgame to hold position).

It really was as much a question for me to get my head around the "value" side of all this than anything else. As I said, if the way I have presented and explained it doesn't suggest a bet, let's not bet.

Endlessly grateful for that kind of guidance. Cheers.

[tikay]

That´s quite a way to lose the 100% record on the NFL handicaps. Luck really struggled against the pass rush for nearly all of the game and then he pulled it out in incredible style in the last 4 minutes. The winning score coming after time had expired on 4th down. A phenomenal talent and a joy to watch even when he is costing me/fred money.

Very much agree with that Kuku, though it was a shame for you to lose your unblemished record.

[Tal]

I think I've explained it in such infantile terms, even I've worked out what's going on.

The bookies don't think there will be 13 draws every 24 games either; they think there will be as near as makes no difference 16.

So if I take that as the starting point, the complexion is different. There are 8 games left, rather than 11. Which is why there isn't much room.for value; the bookies have stolen three games off us.

Whilst I think Anand is better than the ratio of 2:7 on the remaining games, I understand where you're coming from.

By Jove I think he's got it! Call off the sock puppets!!

[kukushkin88]

Very interesting night on the NFL, it´s really changed the shape of things in the NFC. I think I´ve found a bit of value in a market that has significant implications for our San Francisco bet. I really think Seattle are worth a look for the NFC. They have a serious chance to win out now and if San Francisco don´t win at New England that gives them the division.

What do people think of Seattle @ 14/1 for the NFC? If they win out it´s a massive price, if they win 3 out of 4 then it´s possibly a little on the skinny side/about right but that makes it a bet in my book. Don´t want to place it without comments from the usual suspects as my experience is much more in handicap/points betting and the others will have a much better idea of if this is truly value or not.

[hector62]

OUT

[tikay]

OUT

Not forgotten Mr h!

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1025, Monday December 3rd 

LOSS on Month = £273.34

Unsettled Bets  - £922.50




https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=14

* - NB - The December Spready has not been set up yet, so I am temporarily extending the November sheet. The December figures above are accurate though. Normal service will be resumed etc etc.

[Doobs]

I think I've explained it in such infantile terms, even I've worked out what's going on.

The bookies don't think there will be 13 draws every 24 games either; they think there will be as near as makes no difference 16.

So if I take that as the starting point, the complexion is different. There are 8 games left, rather than 11. Which is why there isn't much room.for value; the bookies have stolen three games off us.

Whilst I think Anand is better than the ratio of 2:7 on the remaining games, I understand where you're coming from.

By Jove I think he's got it! Call off the sock puppets!!

That is exactly right and it is a very good example.

 If you thought the 8/15 was too big then you are saying more than 16 games will be draws.  This means that for the 7/1 to be value then black has got to win as often as white.  That seems like it can't be right.  Because we have removed 16 games then the 2/1 can never be value. 

The 111% book on a 3 horse book with a standard long odds on chance probably doesn't leave much scope for any value.  I guess you have to wait until the odds compiler makes a very bad error, or perhaps if you know someone is very bad vs somebody else's likely opening.  I don't know enough about chess to help you here.

But despite all that, we seem to have a good bet running.