Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Derby to win at Bristol City at 2.5 and Charlton +0.5 against Bolton, away, at 1.975, are my two picks. I have doubled up but know the thread doesn't do that so suggest either/both as singles. Safe.

Good luck

I don't like either

Bristol City with Danns have picked up a result or two recently (2 wins in the last four), and Derby are pretty humdrum away from home, having won only 2 of 10. Not a team that can chase games from behind either so the bet is a bit one dimensional

I don't see why backing Charlton away at Bolton is of interest.  Charlton are in form but Bolton have only lost 1 in 8, become a lot more difficult to beat under Freedman.

[TightEnd]

Why's Peter crouch 33/1 to score first in stokes game at weekend on coral and everywhere else he's 7/1?

Because with his facial injury he's far from a certainty to play

[Doobs]

Why's Peter crouch 33/1 to score first in stokes game at weekend on coral and everywhere else he's 7/1?

Because with his facial injury he's far from a certainty to play

Must be a palp, isn't it non runner no bet?

[TightEnd]

One for Hector please

Leicester are in Treviso for the Heineken

It Snowed there Thurs/Friday and has rained heavily all night and is raining now

My Leicester Mercury correspondent acquaintance says

"It is still raining heavily here in Treviso this morning after yesterday's snow. The pitch is likely to be drenched by K.O."

Under 37.5 is the quote for points

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/benetton-v-leicester/total-points


A week ago at Welford road Leicester won 33-25

Is the unders a possible bet here, or would you be worried about Leicester's power in the mud?

(I am thinking of conditions in Biarritz last night, where the teams combined had no chance of getting 30 points...)

[tikay]

TfT missed last week's UFC winner so I have another one for tomorrow evening (please note Friday evening, not the regular Saturday).

The most recent Ultimate Fighter series culminates tomorrow evening with the finals taking place on the UFC on FX 6 card. The Ultimate Fighter is a reality TV program where the fighters are split into two teams and eat, sleep and train together for 6 weeks whilst fighting in a tournament until there are only two fighters remaining to contest the final. This season was called "The Smashes" and featured fighters from the UK taking on Team Australia. In the lightweight tournament two Brits have made it to the final and I think we are presented with a nice bet on this fight. The format allows the viewer to get an insight into largely unknown fighters and allows us to find some good value bets as bookmakers aren't always fully "clued up".

"Stormin" Norman Parke (16-2) from Northern Ireland is the slight underdog in the final and he is the bet to make. He takes on the very likeable, and also very talented, Colin "Freakshow" Fletcher (8-1). Parke is the better all round fighter, he has good wrestling and BJJ with a controlling top game. Fletcher is a tall and long character but Parke will have trained for that and in his semi-final Fletcher was tagged on occasion by a much smaller opponent. Parke is much better than Fletcher's opponent that day. Parke will mix it up standing just as long as he needs to to be able to put Fletcher up against the cage and work the takedowns. Fletcher is dangerous on the ground with his long limbs but Parke is a skilled ground fighter and should be clever enough to avoid the sunmission. Parke wins by decision IMO.

Every bookmaker has Fletcher the favourite with Ladbrokes going 8/13 Fletcher and 6/5 Parke. I'd have those prices the other way around.

Suggest £40 on Norman Parke @ 6/5 with Ladbrokes.

It pains me, but we're betting against this hero.....

Lovely spot, well done Scotty!

[tikay]

One for Hector please

Leicester are in Treviso for the Heineken

It Snowed there Thurs/Friday and has rained heavily all night and is raining now

My Leicester Mercury correspondent acquaintance says

"It is still raining heavily here in Treviso this morning after yesterday's snow. The pitch is likely to be drenched by K.O."

Under 37.5 is the quote for points

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/heineken-cup/benetton-v-leicester/total-points


A week ago at Welford road Leicester won 33-25

Is the unders a possible bet here, or would you be worried about Leicester's power in the mud?

(I am thinking of conditions in Biarritz last night, where the teams combined had no chance of getting 30 points...)

Yes, thanks Tighty, be interested in Mystery Cake Man's view on this.

[Ant040689]

Derby to win at Bristol City at 2.5 and Charlton +0.5 against Bolton, away, at 1.975, are my two picks. I have doubled up but know the thread doesn't do that so suggest either/both as singles. Safe.

Good luck

I don't like either

Bristol City with Danns have picked up a result or two recently (2 wins in the last four), and Derby are pretty humdrum away from home, having won only 2 of 10. Not a team that can chase games from behind either so the bet is a bit one dimensional

I don't see why backing Charlton away at Bolton is of interest.  Charlton are in form but Bolton have only lost 1 in 8, become a lot more difficult to beat under Freedman.

Bristol City's two wins were in the bad fog at Boro which helped them massively, and in pretty contentious circumstances against Sheffield Wednesday. I am buoyed by Derby's recent home form and thought in their last outing to Leicester they did ok despite being outclassed. Bristol City will offer an easier test.

With Charlton they have good away form, conceding the least away from home all season in the whole league, 9 in 10 matches. Bolton have only won one in seven.

Both are basically only bets on form and can't testify to knowing of any true edges in this, but I need my weekly championship punt and this tickled my fancy.

I hope too people are sitting up and noticing I said I didn't fancy Palace last week and they actually didn't win (for a change ), and I was on the cusp of backing us to win today against Brum, I think if we get on top early our wingers will prove too much for their very shaky defence. But our defence is looking just as bad at the moment with Mile Jedinek and Joel Ward out and us having, apparently, the worst first half all season against Blackpool on Saturday because of the makeshift defence. I think a week in training on it should sort it, but as has come to light, Holloway isn't renowned for his defensive tactical prowess.

I was hoping after a win today against Brum and I think it could be convincing if we dig in early, the thread would do well to back us against Cardiff away at anything over 3.0, despite their home form.

And I would like to point out we are 1.73 now for next week's match at home to Huddersfield which I think is proof that the value in backing Palace at home is all but dying and for anyone that got on for the Ipswich and Derby games, before, at around evens, well done.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0945, Saturday December 15th     

LOSS on Month = £212.34

Unsettled Bets  - £1,187.00



https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=15

[hector62]

I have not looked at the Treviso game yet but my default was to look for reasons for it to be low scoring and possible draw or Treviso to get a win so you are on the right lines. I think UK bookies definitely underestimate Treviso especially home. Plus I believe Flood is out injured.

[TightEnd]

Flood is out injured. George Ford is at fly half


I'll leave any recommendation to you, or not, to you sir

[tikay]

Daily Report as at 1025, Saturday 15th December

We lost £15 yesterday.

5 bets completed, 2 wins & 3 losses.

Our little NBA run came to an end & we were well beaten, the boxer chap, Webby, was great value @ 3/1 but did not quite get there, & a £5 RU saver lost.

These were offset by 2 winners, a lovely MMA or UFC (is there a difference?) spot by scotty (+£44), & hector chimed in once again with a typically nitty & never in doubt Unders bet in the Rugby (+£20). Excluding “savers”, that was hector’s third Rugby winner on the bounce.

In cricket, everything was rosy yesterday, & we awoke this morning expecting a sea of blue ink. Not so fast. Wow, how did that (unlike the pitch) turn so quickly? A beautiful summary of our cricket position was posted by his Tightness…..

24 hours ago, all the thread's bets were lined up in a row, about to cross the line in a victory parade festooning garlands on Mere Novice as he updated the spreadsheet in a welter of bold blue text

The glorious uncertainty is a key ingredient in the fun. And the cake.  

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

And finally….I will bet one whole cake that Tighty cannot name this English ground……

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

Exeter Chiefs?

Sandy Park stadium, their new ground

[tikay]

Bugger.

Too damn good.

IOU one cake.

PS - Took you long enough. Did you cheat?

[MereNovice]

Exeter Chiefs?

Sandy Park stadium, their new ground

Correct.

[tikay]

Jeez, I'm getting owned this morning.

My revenge will come tomorrow, trust me.