Tips for Tikay

[TightEnd]

Adz

the thread is pot stuck on the 49ers!

All is far from lost, just got to play it out

Still a very fine team with a great shot

[horseplayer]

i am vaguely interested that ladbrokes have not cut the 14-1 on keith andrews first scorer on boxing day (bolton player)

before the game on saturday it was quite hush hush as to who was going to take over the penalty duties from eagles who has missed a couple.

andrews did and scored two penalties

without him being a penalty taker 14-1 is probably about right (most other firms go 10-1 or 11-1) throw in the fact he will at least be the penalty taker for a little while now and 14-1 is to big.

[BigAdz]

Adz

the thread is pot stuck on the 49ers!

All is far from lost, just got to play it out

Still a very fine team with a great shot

For me, half the pleasure in punting is the pain mate. In no way a dig at the bet, am loving weighing in big on something I know so little about, but enjoying this weekly bumpy ride!

[tikay]

i am vaguely interested that ladbrokes have not cut the 14-1 on keith andrews first scorer on boxing day (bolton player)

before the game on saturday it was quite hush hush as to who was going to take over the penalty duties from eagles who has missed a couple.

andrews did and scored two penalties

without him being a penalty taker 14-1 is probably about right (most other firms go 10-1 or 11-1) throw in the fact he will at least be the penalty taker for a little while now and 14-1 is to big.

Interested in that Mr horsey, thank you.

Can you explain how being the penalty-taker makes the bet THAT more attractive?

How often does a Team get a pen? How many "games per pen" so to speak?

Surely not more than one Pen per team every 3 or 4 games? Or is it more?

[tikay]

Adz

the thread is pot stuck on the 49ers!

All is far from lost, just got to play it out

Still a very fine team with a great shot

For me, half the pleasure in punting is the pain mate. In no way a dig at the bet, am loving weighing in big on something I know so little about, but enjoying this weekly bumpy ride!

Same here.

Almost my favourite Fred bet ever was Barnet to be relegated. The whole thread was on it, we rooted for it every game, & it went right down to the very last game.

And we lost, but truly, loved it, & it gave us months of fun, banter, speculation, Updates, da de da.

I can live with the 49-ers not winning SB, but a good sweat, as long as possible, would be neat. It has already had a few bumps, twists & turns.

[horseplayer]

i am vaguely interested that ladbrokes have not cut the 14-1 on keith andrews first scorer on boxing day (bolton player)

before the game on saturday it was quite hush hush as to who was going to take over the penalty duties from eagles who has missed a couple.

andrews did and scored two penalties

without him being a penalty taker 14-1 is probably about right (most other firms go 10-1 or 11-1) throw in the fact he will at least be the penalty taker for a little while now and 14-1 is to big.

Interested in that Mr horsey, thank you.

Can you explain how being the penalty-taker makes the bet THAT more attractive?

How often does a Team get a pen? How many "games per pen" so to speak?

Surely not more than one Pen per team every 3 or 4 games? Or is it more?

tbh i have not thought about it that deeply

what i was trying to say is that the price is the same price that was available on andrews pre him being the nominated penalty taker

usually like the other firms have i would expect at least 3 points off a price when this happens

[TL900]

http://www.paddypower.com/bet/powerplay/enhanced-special?ev_oc_grp_ids=239489

City @ Sunderland
Spurs @ Villa
Chelsea @ Norwich

Treble = 5/1 seems like decent value. Thoughts?

[tikay]

i am vaguely interested that ladbrokes have not cut the 14-1 on keith andrews first scorer on boxing day (bolton player)

before the game on saturday it was quite hush hush as to who was going to take over the penalty duties from eagles who has missed a couple.

andrews did and scored two penalties

without him being a penalty taker 14-1 is probably about right (most other firms go 10-1 or 11-1) throw in the fact he will at least be the penalty taker for a little while now and 14-1 is to big.

Interested in that Mr horsey, thank you.

Can you explain how being the penalty-taker makes the bet THAT more attractive?

How often does a Team get a pen? How many "games per pen" so to speak?

Surely not more than one Pen per team every 3 or 4 games? Or is it more?

tbh i have not thought about it that deeply

what i was trying to say is that the price is the same price that was available on andrews pre him being the nominated penalty taker

usually like the other firms have i would expect at least 3 points off a price when this happens

Yes, understood, I accept that effectively we are free-rolling the pens at a price 3 points above the market.

We'll have a mini-dabble later today.

[horseplayer]

i am vaguely interested that ladbrokes have not cut the 14-1 on keith andrews first scorer on boxing day (bolton player)

before the game on saturday it was quite hush hush as to who was going to take over the penalty duties from eagles who has missed a couple.

andrews did and scored two penalties

without him being a penalty taker 14-1 is probably about right (most other firms go 10-1 or 11-1) throw in the fact he will at least be the penalty taker for a little while now and 14-1 is to big.

Interested in that Mr horsey, thank you.

Can you explain how being the penalty-taker makes the bet THAT more attractive?

How often does a Team get a pen? How many "games per pen" so to speak?

Surely not more than one Pen per team every 3 or 4 games? Or is it more?

tbh i have not thought about it that deeply

what i was trying to say is that the price is the same price that was available on andrews pre him being the nominated penalty taker

usually like the other firms have i would expect at least 3 points off a price when this happens

Yes, understood, I accept that effectively we are free-rolling the pens at a price 3 points above the market.

We'll have a mini-dabble later today.

yes it is by no means a rick just not reacting to information

[tikay]

^^^^

You make a good point about "not reacting to information", & the bookies DO get it wrong sometimes, the "Fouls" bet the other night being a classic example. That line is standard on almost every game, & is not far out, either, but they never vary it by more than 1 or 2 no matter what the game.

Since that dastardly Camel re-ignited my betting habits, & with what I have learned from this Fred, I believe there IS value to be found on occasion, but it is not in the obvious places, & it takes a bit of finding.

Away from Fred, I make a lot of bets these days, but I don't recall the last time I did an "outright" on a Football game, as the prices are never far off. "X have won their last 4, & y are terrible away" holds no appeal to me personally, as I think that knowledge is usually priced in, give or take a few %. The exception may be Lower Leagues, Conference, or Lower-League Scottish stuff. 

The potential & occasional value seems to me to be in Sub-Markets. We know that most Goal Markets are derived from the game market, & so they are rarely much wrong, either, ditto BTS etc.

But they offer SO many markets now, & sometimes they miss a trick on markets which are not based upon the expectation of the Outright.  It takes hours & hours of tedious searching to find them, but they ARE there sometimes. These are not ideal Fred markets either, as the market is so thin. That Stan James "Fouls" bet was taken down after 20 minutes of Fred-bashing, which says it all.

OK, I need to get back to working through the Boxing Day subs......

[rfgqqabc]

Tk, regarding the Doncaster bet, We have had a few problems regarding wage bill and overall funding. One of our best players, James Coppinger, had to move to Notts Forest on loan to help reduce the bill. However, as the board have seen our team perform well, they have decided to dip into their rather large pockets in a bid for a quick return to the Championship. We are in the process of confirming the permanent signing of Hume. Clingan and Griffin are signing loan deals and the board has mentioned further investment.




If we hit some form we have a good shot in a division that will be close. The club will be absolutely buzzing if any investment gets put in, and the thought of seeing Coppinger tear apart League 1 defences is making my mouth water!

14/1 with Coral for anyone else interested.

[Horneris]

Would put people off the Donny bet tbh (soz Chris Rhodes).

Sheff Utd, MK Dons, Bournemouth and Swindon are all starting to look vastly superior to me.

[kukushkin88]

Interesting how the 14-1 Seattle for the Conference bet/non-bet for Fred has progressed since we discussed it. The San Fran win against the Pats was massive and although Seattle are 3/3 with 3 thumping wins since I think they are a poor 9/2 shot now. Looks something like Washington or Dallas away/Atlanta away/ GB or SF away.

[bobby1]

Interesting how the 14-1 Seattle for the Conference bet/non-bet for Fred has progressed since we discussed it. The San Fran win against the Pats was massive and although Seattle are 3/3 with 3 thumping wins since I think they are a poor 9/2 shot now. Looks something like Washington or Dallas away/Atlanta away/ GB or SF away.

Its a shame the league portion is finishing this week mate for your bet isn't it. Home advantage would have been incred for them. They look abs fantastic at the moment don't they.

[kukushkin88]

Interesting how the 14-1 Seattle for the Conference bet/non-bet for Fred has progressed since we discussed it. The San Fran win against the Pats was massive and although Seattle are 3/3 with 3 thumping wins since I think they are a poor 9/2 shot now. Looks something like Washington or Dallas away/Atlanta away/ GB or SF away.

Its a shame the league portion is finishing this week mate for your bet isn't it. Home advantage would have been incred for them. They look abs fantastic at the moment don't they.

Couldn't be happier with how they are playing! That Pats/SF game was quite decisive though I think as it's very tough for them to do it all on the road. I think Minnesota might beat GB and get SF back in the 2 seed, it could so easily have been Seattle's.

Merry Christmas to all followers of this thread. It's been a great year for learning and exchanging some top quality information.