Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

Long Run looks a good thing in tomorrow's King George, but Tal scooped up all the value.

I think Fred should back Captain Chris.  Captain Chris won a "bad" Arkle at Chrltenham in 2011 and then followed it with a bad season last year.  In addition the race is going to be a slog in the mud and Captain Chris isn't a stayer, hence he is 21/1 on Betfair.

But, I am not convinced there really are bad Arkles, and he did beat Finian's Rainbow who had a decent season last year.  Last year he unseated his rider at Exeter when he looked like he would have won.  He couldn't live with Kauto and Long Run at Kempton.  He then made a bad mistake at the 2nd at Cheltenham and didn't recover.  He then finished 6th off the winner in the Ryanair, which isn't King George winning form, but isn't terrible either. 

This season he has come out and beat For Non Stop and Finian's Rainbow at Aintree.  I know there were excuses for For Non Stop that day, but the ground was heavy and maybe he is back to his Arkle winning form... And there isn't such a thing as a bad Arkle?

The bookies are 16s best to scupper the each way money, but we bet like men here anyway.  Currently 22 on Betfair and I do think Long Run likely wins.  There is only £12 available at that price but think 20/1 is fine too. There is a few hundred quid available at that price so barring a Fraser lump on, thread should get some ar that price.

Suggest a £20 banzai Captain Chris 22 or 21 on Betfair.

Merry Christmas thread. 

[Doobs]

Should have said it is the 3.10 at kempton

[Tal]

"Tal scooped up all the value"

Nope. Still looks weird even when I type it. Must be Christmas.

[tikay]

David.

Am busy at the mo, and will reply properly later, but for now, we are on, at 22/1 for £20 with Betty, all matched.

[tikay]

"Tal scooped up all the value"

Nope. Still looks weird even when I type it. Must be Christmas.

If Fred does not get the lot, I hope you do.

[Tal]

Thanks I'll happily reciprocate.


I'll put this up now while I'm thinking about it. No rush; it's Christmas.

Aston Villa v Spurs - line on goals is set at 2.5. Spurs aren't prolific at present and Villa - after that result - will be putting men behind the ball and looking to stifle spurs. First half could be very tight and, although I still fancy Spurs to edge it, I'm not expecting a goalfest. The games at Villa Park are always annoyingly close when we play there. There's just no chance Lambert will allow his side to go out and get turned over again.

Villa came back after being done 5-0 by Citeh a few weeks back and drew 0-0 (in fact going on a run of 5 games unbeaten). Lambert seems to know how to pick his young lads up when they are down.

Under 2.5 goals at 2.06 with betfair seems like a price to me. What so the Elders think?

[david3103]

The old County Ground at Northampton had a Spion Kop end, and an open side to the pitch where the football and cricket grounds joined.

The last four of George Best's goals here were scored at the Kop end. Watch out for the capitulation of the keeper for the sixth.


#Invalid YouTube Link#

[millidonk]

What price was a heart attack?

[Marky147]

Tanya's cooking obv done him in, nice one Shaun

[Tal]

I should just qualify my question, lest (Heaven forbid) it looks like I've learned nothing in six months...

The line has to be set somewhere by the bookies. 2.5 seems sensible for any game, apart from the most open or the greatest mismatches.

There must be some money from the "ordinary punters" (not the winning ones) on Bale, Defoe and Adebayor ripping a depleted, sieve-like Villa defence in twain. It seems so obvious to the kind of two-bit punter stereotype I'm pretending for this post I don't belong to. My thought process is that this would suggest the market will have slightly moved to reflect that.

This combined suggests "under" offers value. I add to that a small (barely insignificant) factor in that I actually think there isa greater than 50% chance that there will be under 2.5 goals in this game and that is why I have asked the question of the knowledge-givers as to whether I'm getting any better.

[tikay]

Long Run looks a good thing in tomorrow's King George, but Tal scooped up all the value.

I think Fred should back Captain Chris.  Captain Chris won a "bad" Arkle at Chrltenham in 2011 and then followed it with a bad season last year.  In addition the race is going to be a slog in the mud and Captain Chris isn't a stayer, hence he is 21/1 on Betfair.

But, I am not convinced there really are bad Arkles, and he did beat Finian's Rainbow who had a decent season last year.  Last year he unseated his rider at Exeter when he looked like he would have won.  He couldn't live with Kauto and Long Run at Kempton.  He then made a bad mistake at the 2nd at Cheltenham and didn't recover.  He then finished 6th off the winner in the Ryanair, which isn't King George winning form, but isn't terrible either. 

This season he has come out and beat For Non Stop and Finian's Rainbow at Aintree.  I know there were excuses for For Non Stop that day, but the ground was heavy and maybe he is back to his Arkle winning form... And there isn't such a thing as a bad Arkle?

The bookies are 16s best to scupper the each way money, but we bet like men here anyway.  Currently 22 on Betfair and I do think Long Run likely wins.  There is only £12 available at that price but think 20/1 is fine too. There is a few hundred quid available at that price so barring a Fraser lump on, thread should get some ar that price.

Suggest a £20 banzai Captain Chris 22 or 21 on Betfair.

Merry Christmas thread. 

Merry Christmas (belated) to you too, & congrats on being Fred's Mr Sunday Million Final Table Man. Ooh, so close to getting a 6 figure payday!

I particularly enjoyed two phrases of that recommend.


but we bet like men here anyway

....and....

There is a few hundred quid available at that price so barring a Fraser lump on, thread should get some ar that price

Well maybe Fraser is not interested in smashing this one, or maybe we got in first.

I must also correct an earlier comment by me -I got on at 22, being 21/1, & NOT 22/1 as I posted.

Good luck Mr Posh Spurs Chap, & good luck Mr Sunday Million Final Table Bloke. (Posh peeps cannot be blokes by definition).

We have £20 win, Betfair, Captain Chris, King George, Kempton, Boxing Day.


ON

 GB / Kemp 26th Dec / 15:10 3m Grd1 Chs  Captain Chris Back 24259221620  25-Dec-12
20:57    22 20.00  22 25-Dec-12 20:57 

[tikay]

For those punting on the King George, & perhaps a shade too late for Fred, I just noticed that Paddy Power are offering "Money Back if your selection finishes 2nd to Long Run".

The T & C's are.....


Applies to singles only

Applies to Win or Each Way market only.

Applies to win part of each-way bets only.

Max Refund E/£100 per customer.

Applies to bets placed from 10am on December 23rd.

Paddy Power Horse Racing rules apply.

Does not apply to Tote Bets   
   

[horseplayer]

pm sent tikay

i hope all thread members and viewers are having/had a good xmas

[tikay]

I don't suppose anyone knows if "Captain Chris" is in any way related, either by breeding, or ownership, with his near-namesake "Captain Christy"?

Captain Christy was a complete nutcase, he was uncontrollable, & if you backed him, it was heart-stopping stuff, as he could be a bit dodgy at his fences.

Apart from being known for being completely nuts, he had two claims to fame as I recall.

1) He won the King George at Kempton by thirty lengths.

2) He won the Cheltenham Gold Cup as a novice.


I doubt there have been many more exciting horses to watch around Cheltenham since Golden Miller, who was owned by the extraordinary Dorothy Paget, who was responsible for the phrase "get your betting boots on".

Wiki says this of Miss Paget, who was very well-bred herself, being sired by a member of the British aristocracy, & tracing back to the Whitney family on the Dam's side.


She also threw a screaming fit at Fulke Walwyn after the trainer could 'only' deliver five winners of a six race card. However these rantings were as much dealing as she had with any man, claiming that the very sight of men made her physically sick. Some society commentators of the day noted that her deep hatred towards men may have been due to the fact that, despite her immense wealth, her plain, bordering on ugly looks and huge, at times 20 stone frame ensured that no man ever attempted to win her affections

In fact, she was a very caring woman in some ways, who did a lot of charity work on the quiet.

Here is the great lady with Gordon Richards.

[Doobs]

For those punting on the King George, & perhaps a shade too late for Fred, I just noticed that Paddy Power are offering "Money Back if your selection finishes 2nd to Long Run".

The T & C's are.....


Applies to singles only

Applies to Win or Each Way market only.

Applies to win part of each-way bets only.

Max Refund E/£100 per customer.

Applies to bets placed from 10am on December 23rd.

Paddy Power Horse Racing rules apply.

Does not apply to Tote Bets   
   

Captain Chris is 11/1 with them, so don't see much value.  If you are backing Grands Crus the paddy power offer is the way to go, as he is the same price as he is on Betfair and you pay no commission and get the offer on top.  I haven't checked but you probably get better place terms too with Paddy Power.