Tips for Tikay

[Doobs]

i would also agree any "value" in the market has gone (i think t bay was a bigger price a few days back?_

Isn't now the best time to bet Long Run for the Gold Cup?  I know Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs are very promising, Bobs Worth carried a huge weight in the Hennessey and Silvianiaco Conti won the Betfair.

But, Long Run is still the best 3 miler in chasing and has won a "good" Gold Cup.  The other horse probably had a fitness advantage in the Betfair, and I can forgive him the one bad run in last year's Gold Cup.  I assume there is a chance Flemenstar or Sir Des Champs don't look great today.  And you can back Long Run at 7/1 for the Gold Cup.... 7/1.

FWIW Agree on today, prices look right.

[tikay]

Sir Alex had one of his rants on Boxing Day, but the FA have decided not to charge him.

Presumably they took into account his previously unblemished reputation.

 

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[tikay]

i would also agree any "value" in the market has gone (i think t bay was a bigger price a few days back?_

Isn't now the best time to bet Long Run for the Gold Cup?  I know Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs are very promising, Bobs Worth carried a huge weight in the Hennessey and Silvianiaco Conti won the Betfair.

But, Long Run is still the best 3 miler in chasing and has won a "good" Gold Cup.  The other horse probably had a fitness advantage in the Betfair, and I can forgive him the one bad run in last year's Gold Cup.  I assume there is a chance Flemenstar or Sir Des Champs don't look great today.  And you can back Long Run at 7/1 for the Gold Cup.... 7/1.

FWIW Agree on today, prices look right.

Morning Doobs.

By "now", do you mean before today's Lexus?

If so, given how Fred (tries to be) sensible with it's cash, but not afraid to have a dash now & then, how much would you propose?

If I may say so, I thought your analysis of the King George was extraordinary, especially given that CC was the near rag of the field in the betting. Takes a bit of courage to stick up bets like that.

[horseplayer]

i think long run is the most solid option

i get the feeling sdc is being aimed to be 100% tuned up for Cheltenham this year

it is looking likely he will not get the good ground he prefers until then

personally i have sdc as a winner in the gold cup but only to small stakes, he is going his prefered way round today so even ground allowing i expect a good run

[Doobs]

 

i would also agree any "value" in the market has gone (i think t bay was a bigger price a few days back?_

Isn't now the best time to bet Long Run for the Gold Cup?  I know Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs are very promising, Bobs Worth carried a huge weight in the Hennessey and Silvianiaco Conti won the Betfair.

But, Long Run is still the best 3 miler in chasing and has won a "good" Gold Cup.  The other horse probably had a fitness advantage in the Betfair, and I can forgive him the one bad run in last year's Gold Cup.  I assume there is a chance Flemenstar or Sir Des Champs don't look great today.  And you can back Long Run at 7/1 for the Gold Cup.... 7/1.

FWIW Agree on today, prices look right.

Morning Doobs.

By "now", do you mean before today's Lexus?

If so, given how Fred (tries to be) sensible with it's cash, but not afraid to have a dash now & then, how much would you propose?

If I may say so, I thought your analysis of the King George was extraordinary, especially given that CC was the near rag of the field in the betting. Takes a bit of courage to stick up bets like that.

Yes, I think we should go before the Lexus.  I can't see him starting bigger than 7/1.  After today it is likely either Flemenstar or Sir Des Champs will be shorter, but not both.  If that happens, I don't expect Long Run to drift, but if Tidal Bay or something else wins/gets close, then they could both drift.

People are always looking for the next big thing, so sometimes miss the obvious.

Something like £25 seems fine to me.

[tikay]

i would also agree any "value" in the market has gone (i think t bay was a bigger price a few days back?_

Isn't now the best time to bet Long Run for the Gold Cup?  I know Flemenstar and Sir Des Champs are very promising, Bobs Worth carried a huge weight in the Hennessey and Silvianiaco Conti won the Betfair.

But, Long Run is still the best 3 miler in chasing and has won a "good" Gold Cup.  The other horse probably had a fitness advantage in the Betfair, and I can forgive him the one bad run in last year's Gold Cup.  I assume there is a chance Flemenstar or Sir Des Champs don't look great today.  And you can back Long Run at 7/1 for the Gold Cup.... 7/1.

FWIW Agree on today, prices look right.

Morning Doobs.

By "now", do you mean before today's Lexus?

If so, given how Fred (tries to be) sensible with it's cash, but not afraid to have a dash now & then, how much would you propose?

If I may say so, I thought your analysis of the King George was extraordinary, especially given that CC was the near rag of the field in the betting. Takes a bit of courage to stick up bets like that.

Yes, I think we should go before the Lexus.  I can't see him starting bigger than 7/1.  After today it is likely either Flemenstar or Sir Des Champs will be shorter, but not both.  If that happens, I don't expect Long Run to drift, but if Tidal Bay or something else wins/gets close, then they could both drift.

People are always looking for the next big thing, so sometimes miss the obvious.

Something like £25 seems fine to me.

Thanks.

We bet like men

We have £25 @ 7/1, Long Run, Cheltenham Gold Gup 2013.

ON


Selection 1
 
Selection Long Run @ 7/1  
Market
 win or each way
 
Event
 Betfred Cheltenham Gold Cup
Cheltenham Gold Cup
2013-03-15 15:20:00
 
Bet Type
 
Bet Type
 Win Single
 
Unit Stake
 £25.00
 
Number of Units
 x1
 
Total Stake
 £25.00
 
Time and Date Placed
 2012-12-28 10:38:55
 
Receipt Number
 O/0891659/0000177
 

[BigAdz]

bit unfair on tidal bay

since he has been with a trainer he has been pretty consistent and considering he was trained by howard johnson for most of his career it is no surprise he was quirky

it is hard to forget how quirky he was and he certainly still has an awkward late challenge but conditions look ideal to me today

ground distance and a probable good pace to chase down

ground is a worry for sdc and trip a ? for flemenstar


Pretty much a complete plus one.

Whoever wins today you will find reasons to look back and say the price looked big but tbh the prices as they are look pretty much as they should. I would be tempted by one of those double bets on SDC to win today and Gold Cup if I could get over 12-1.
For today I would probably back TB ew as you can see him storming up that long run in

Morning Adz,

I assume you meant "TD ew"?

As there seems a fair degree of interest in this race (Lexus Chase), here is the market.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/leopardstown/15:00/winner

Morning TK

TB =Tidal Bay.

As Chairman of the Tidal Bay Fan Club I tend to view his chances through wonderful Dame Edna Rose tinted Specs, so dont place too much faith in my selection.

This is one Grade 1 Chase I think is worth a watching brief, as it will tie the English and Irish form together.

FWIW, and I will probably lose all credibility, I think the King George was a very poor renewal, and Long Run did well despite his jockeys efforts. He will remain a safe choice for the GC, but I suspect there will be a couple to beat him again.

SDC has impressive Cheltenham credentials and is in the right hands. If you can ignore TBs age, his profile now is of an improving animal, but Bobs Worth looks bomb proof.

As a real skinner, I have long been a fan of a Scottish horse, Bold Sir Brian, and hold a fancy ticket with 700-1 on it. He needs to produce a performance in the Argento at Cheltenham in New Year to be entered this year, but he is defo a horse for the future.

[Chompy]

Time to dip into those Poshy profits...

Tommy Rowe, club captain, was injured during both our awful runs this season, and is a key player.

He's often played left-back in the past but started life as a left-winger and that's where he's playing at the moment. He scored against Wolfs on Saturday.

Coral have him at 7-1 to score any time against Brizzle Shitty, which is too big. 4-1 would be nearer the mark.

Rec £20 @ 7-1.

PS, like Bold Sir Brian a lot. If he can brush up his jumping and settle better he could be very tasty.

[tikay]

bit unfair on tidal bay

since he has been with a trainer he has been pretty consistent and considering he was trained by howard johnson for most of his career it is no surprise he was quirky

it is hard to forget how quirky he was and he certainly still has an awkward late challenge but conditions look ideal to me today

ground distance and a probable good pace to chase down

ground is a worry for sdc and trip a ? for flemenstar


Pretty much a complete plus one.

Whoever wins today you will find reasons to look back and say the price looked big but tbh the prices as they are look pretty much as they should. I would be tempted by one of those double bets on SDC to win today and Gold Cup if I could get over 12-1.
For today I would probably back TB ew as you can see him storming up that long run in

Morning Adz,

I assume you meant "TD ew"?

As there seems a fair degree of interest in this race (Lexus Chase), here is the market.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/leopardstown/15:00/winner

Morning TK

TB =Tidal Bay.

As Chairman of the Tidal Bay Fan Club I tend to view his chances through wonderful Dame Edna Rose tinted Specs, so dont place too much faith in my selection.

This is one Grade 1 Chase I think is worth a watching brief, as it will tie the English and Irish form together.

FWIW, and I will probably lose all credibility, I think the King George was a very poor renewal, and Long Run did well despite his jockeys efforts. He will remain a safe choice for the GC, but I suspect there will be a couple to beat him again.

SDC has impressive Cheltenham credentials and is in the right hands. If you can ignore TBs age, his profile now is of an improving animal, but Bobs Worth looks bomb proof.

As a real skinner, I have long been a fan of a Scottish horse, Bold Sir Brian, and hold a fancy ticket with 700-1 on it. He needs to produce a performance in the Argento at Cheltenham in New Year to be entered this year, but he is defo a horse for the future.

Bugger. TB, TD..........my bad, apologies. I'm sure I'm losing the plot.

Anyway, it gave you an excuse to give us some excelent insight into the Gold Cup, thanks. 

[tikay]

Time to dip into those Poshy profits...

Tommy Rowe, club captain, was injured during both our awful runs this season, and is a key player.

He's often played left-back in the past but started life as a left-winger and that's where he's playing at the moment. He scored against Wolfs on Saturday.

Coral have him at 7-1 to score any time against Brizzle Shitty, which is too big. 4-1 would be nearer the mark.

Rec £20 @ 7-1.

PS, like Bold Sir Brian a lot. If he can brush up his jumping and settle better he could be very tasty.

VERY dangerous asking me to do that bet Mr W, there is a "Tommy Rose" & a "Tommy Rowe" listed in the market, & I have previous......

Poshy profits? FML.

As it happens, Coral are a long way OOL on that bet, he is 4/1 or 9/2 everywhere else.

Tomorrow's dinner will be turkey leftovers, & Value Pie for afters.

We have £20 @ 7/1 (Coral), Tommy Rowe AnyTime goalscorer, Bristol City v Peterborough.

ON


SingleID:O/1597594/0000026Tommy Rowe7/1Bristol City v Peterborough - 29/12/2012Stake £20.00
Estimated Return:£160.00Confirming BetsPlease do not click on any other link while we are confirming your bets. Please wait.

Total Stake: £20.00
Potential Return: £160.00

[Doobs]

bit unfair on tidal bay

since he has been with a trainer he has been pretty consistent and considering he was trained by howard johnson for most of his career it is no surprise he was quirky

it is hard to forget how quirky he was and he certainly still has an awkward late challenge but conditions look ideal to me today

ground distance and a probable good pace to chase down

ground is a worry for sdc and trip a ? for flemenstar


Pretty much a complete plus one.

Whoever wins today you will find reasons to look back and say the price looked big but tbh the prices as they are look pretty much as they should. I would be tempted by one of those double bets on SDC to win today and Gold Cup if I could get over 12-1.
For today I would probably back TB ew as you can see him storming up that long run in

Morning Adz,

I assume you meant "TD ew"?

As there seems a fair degree of interest in this race (Lexus Chase), here is the market.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/leopardstown/15:00/winner

Morning TK

TB =Tidal Bay.

As Chairman of the Tidal Bay Fan Club I tend to view his chances through wonderful Dame Edna Rose tinted Specs, so dont place too much faith in my selection.

This is one Grade 1 Chase I think is worth a watching brief, as it will tie the English and Irish form together.

FWIW, and I will probably lose all credibility, I think the King George was a very poor renewal, and Long Run did well despite his jockeys efforts. He will remain a safe choice for the GC, but I suspect there will be a couple to beat him again.

SDC has impressive Cheltenham credentials and is in the right hands. If you can ignore TBs age, his profile now is of an improving animal, but Bobs Worth looks bomb proof.

As a real skinner, I have long been a fan of a Scottish horse, Bold Sir Brian, and hold a fancy ticket with 700-1 on it. He needs to produce a performance in the Argento at Cheltenham in New Year to be entered this year, but he is defo a horse for the future.

I covered why I thought Captain Chris was underrated before, so even if it was a bad renewal, Long Run still beat all the bad horses well.  So think we'll just have to agree to differ on this.  

Kauto Star was the best 3 miler we have had since the era of Arkle.  If you look at the period between Arkle and Kauto, Long Run would be better than at least 75% of Gold Cup winners.

Right now we have Long Run and a group of horses that are very promising.  My theory is that if they fulfill there promise they are only hoimg yo be as good as Long Run, and it is unlikely any of them are as good as Kauto.  

So we have a Gold Cup that will include Long Run and 4 or 5 who could be as good as him if they fulfill there potential.  I'd rather have the horse that is already as good as Long Run.  It just seems enormously unlikely that we will get 4 or 5 as good as Long Run in one Gold Cup, and the likelihood is that most of the pretenders just won't get there.  

Despite this it looks like a cracking race right now and I am already looking forward to it.

You can make a fair case that Long Run isn't at his best round Cheltenham and I'd obviously prefer a better jockey.  

But 7/1.

[hector62]

Morning Mr T.

It will be interesting to see if Pakistan can make it 4 in a row today in the 6's bashing contest v India and endorse my size theory. However I am going to give you a rugby bet for tonight instead.

Sale v Worcester has the potential to be one of the worst games ever played. A bad team playing badly against an average team playing averagely, on a wet pitch. I make this as close to a 50/50 call as possible, and skybet even have no try scorer as 6-1 favourites in that market. I am going to plump for Worcester to win as they have a fly half better suited to playing field position and the better goal kicker. We also get odds against for them but we should back the draw in this one

Suggest £25 Worcester @ 7/5 Paddy Power and £5 the draw @ 16-1.

[tikay]

Ha!

Can't wait to watch this one.......



Sale v Worcester has the potential to be one of the worst games ever played. A bad team playing badly against an average team playing averagely, on a wet pitch.

[TightEnd]

Ha!

Can't wait to watch this one.......



Sale v Worcester has the potential to be one of the worst games ever played. A bad team playing badly against an average team playing averagely, on a wet pitch.

Not only that, but you get Austin Healey as the "expert" summariser too.


FWIW I am on over 9.5 sixes here on a flat one in Ahmedabad.

[DungBeetle]

I've mentioned this before but Nathan Chalobah continues to be underestimated by the bookies in the goalscorer markets for Watford.  There is a perception out there that he is a defender but I must stress he plays in the Yaya Toure role in EVERY game for the hornets sitting in front of the 3 central defenders, gets numerous shots away and has 2 goals so far from 16 games.  The first batch of those games were when we were reallly struggling, so I think this ratio will improve as the season goes on.  He is far more likely to score than Hogg, Casetti and Pudil imo.

Against Brighton he is 28-1 for first goal and 10-1 to score any time with B365.  If you backed at these odds everytime I can't see how you couldn't make money from the games I have seen this year.  Since this game is on TV on Saturday teatime I suggest we have a dabble.

If I was a bookie I'd price him 14-1 for first goal and 6-1 anytime FWIW.