Tips for Tikay

[kukushkin88]

I really like Rich's NFL total bet, just cannot see the line being that high at the off, even if Sunday is a better day weather wise.

I think this is a really good bet. What would the line be with RG3 fully fit in a dome? Maybe 55.5? Possibly not even that.

the other thing is this has been flexed to Sunday evening. Wind chill, droppping temperatures

Even if the snow-storm has past, its not going to be throwing weather

Gets my "bet the farm" blessing: It´s just that bit too high.

[Tal]

Q for Tighty and the posse of NFL wise heads.

In your original piece about the bet, you said the following about the price:

This hasn't adjusted lower for

- conditions
- Washington quarterback unable to run effectively
- Dallas running game difficulties

Why would the price not have been set with the second and third of these already factored in? RG3 has been injured for a few weeks for example.

Your more recent posts suggest the line is high compared to others and whoever was deciding on the line for this game would have considered the fitness of the key players in the two offences.

If it is really the weather that is what hasn't been reflected in the line, that could still make it a big bet (Fred does it for Hector's rugby bets after all) but I'm just trying to get my head around whether this is a case of:

1. The line-setter has all the info and made a big mistake; or
2. The line setter hasn't factored in the weather and this is very significant in this market; or
3. The line-setter hasn't taken injuries or the weather into account and we know that.

If I understand correctly, given the relative edges, 1 is a good bet, 2 is a bigger bet and 3 is a



Def not questioning your reasoning or the merits of the bet; just trying to contextualise it with other bets on the thread in my ice creamy head.

[kukushkin88]

Q for Tighty and the posse of NFL wise heads.

In your original piece about the bet, you said the following about the price:

This hasn't adjusted lower for

- conditions
- Washington quarterback unable to run effectively
- Dallas running game difficulties

Why would the price not have been set with the second and third of these already factored in? RG3 has been injured for a few weeks for example.

Your more recent posts suggest the line is high compared to others and whoever was deciding on the line for this game would have considered the fitness of the key players in the two offences.

If it is really the weather that is what hasn't been reflected in the line, that could still make it a big bet (Fred does it for Hector's rugby bets after all) but I'm just trying to get my head around whether this is a case of:

1. The line-setter has all the info and made a big mistake; or
2. The line setter hasn't factored in the weather and this is very significant in this market; or
3. The line-setter hasn't taken injuries or the weather into account and we know that.

If I understand correctly, given the relative edges, 1 is a good bet, 2 is a bigger bet and 3 is a



Def not questioning your reasoning or the merits of the bet; just trying to contextualise it with other bets on the thread in my ice creamy head.

For me it´s mostly 2, allied to the fact that they have both these sides points higher than me most weeks and I´m not convinced I´m wrong.

[TightEnd]

All good questions

I don't think the line takes the weather into account fully (point 2 in your list above). It's no more than 5, maybe 7 points tops, off a full points quote for a good weather game. With 4-7 inches of snow expected before kick off and the field already covered in snow!!

The weather is the most significant factor by far here. I was watching the quote over the 24th-26th December and it did not move despite the worsening weather forecasts.

As to the health of Griffin, yes that should be factored in but I was struck by how stationary he was last week against Eagles and in practice therefore I think the quote underestimates the impact of the knee on the points potential of the game

As for the Dallas running game: In bad weather, or low temperatures at least, its difficult to move the ball, so the running game assumes a lot of importance. Dallas' main points scoring threat the second half of the season has been the receiver Bryant playing recently with a broken finger and about to be asked to play with that finger in the very cold.

Dallas is one of the weakest run game teams in the league, due to lack of quality blocking not the running back Murray.

Put all that together and odds-setters are being over-optimistic about this game's points especially compared to the totals available for over cold weather games this weekend. This reflects RG3's potential to put up points, of course.

[kukushkin88]

I should probably explain my thinking, Romo is a better QB at controlling the game than this season so far suggests (because of the deficits), if they get ahead he can control the scoreboard with short throws underneath as well as anyone. RG3 more than anything has ripped up poor teams who have totally blown key coverages. I don´t see this happening so much here, even allowing for the Dallas factor, they will be focussed.

[Tal]

Superb answers, chaps. Thank you for your patience

Speaking of three digit heroes, MvG has a fracture in one foot and has a stress injury in his Achilles in the other from overcompensating.

[TightEnd]

Superb answers, chaps. Thank you for your patience

Speaking of three digit heroes, MvG has a fracture in one foot and has a stress injury in his Achilles in the other from overcompensating.

is that a big blow to the bet, or can he play through it ok?

hobbles up to the oche? sits in between hobbles?

[ripple11]

Superb answers, chaps. Thank you for your patience

Speaking of three digit heroes, MvG has a fracture in one foot and has a stress injury in his Achilles in the other from overcompensating.

is that a big blow to the bet, or can he play through it ok?

hobbles up to the oche? sits in between hobbles?

Hopefully a bit like the great Gordon Greenidge..... often seemed to have a" limp" and always seemed to bat alot better on one leg!

[Tal]

A set and a break up, averaging north of 105...

Lot of darts to be played to lift the Sid Waddell trophy tho.

[TightEnd]

Not a darts watcher, but watching this

MVG is tremendous to watch. Fires those trebles in, staccato style

[tikay]

On the Dallas bet, I spent the afternoon at my Great Aunt's. She's 97. She didn't have a view on RG3's knee, but.....

She fell asleep. I didn't want to leave until she woke up, so I looked at every other outside game in the North/East US this weekend

At Buffalo, the line for total points is 40.5

At Cincinnati, 41

At New York, 45.5

At New England, 46

At Pittsburgh, no quote

We are on at 49.5, though arguably these teams have more offense than some of the teams in those games

I find myself almost proposing the double load up.....William Hill remain at 49.5, with other market-setters trending to 48

"enjoy the snow Saturday, it will be cold enough for all snow, and it seems like we could get a decent amount from Washington DC to Boston according to the latest computer models. Take care my friends."

from a US weather blog showing

You know I can't resist a weather map, Rich.

We heve pressed, & we shall give due thanks to your Great Aunt if we get this one home.

So, in addition to the £55 earlier, we now have......


£55 @ 10/11, Wm Hill, UNDER 49.5 points, Dallas @ Washington, Monday 31st December.

We shall end 2012 with a bang or a bomb.

Hopefully, we start 2013 with one MVG heads up for the PDC, & clutching our 50/1 voucher.

ON

27 Dec 12 / 18:42  Single 1   Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins  –  Total Points Under @ 10/11 – £55.00 O/0457483/0000225/F

[TightEnd]

Darts Ice cream question


Would MVG be favourite to beat Lewis in the QF, should it be that match up?

[TL900]

Darts Ice cream question


Would MVG be favourite to beat Lewis in the QF, should it be that match up?

I would imagine so as MVG is second favourite for the whole thing now. Plus Lewis has looked very ordinary thus far in the tournament.

[tikay]

Tony, is the car pic a ref to Shilton's ' extra training' routine which made him infamous around 1980 ish?

Yup.

The running joke of the day (thank the Lord Twitter never existed then, or even the internet?), "what car does Shilton drive?, CorTINA........"

There were shades of Tiger Woods in the tale, too.


Shilton was arrested for drink-driving after being found at 5am in a country lane with a woman called Tina in his car. When Tina's husband Colin arrived he said the pair were partially clothed. Shilton hurriedly drove away and crashed into a lamppost. He admitted 'taking a lady for a meal' and was fined £350 and banned from driving for 15 months. He then had to endure countless terrace chants of 'Shilton, Shilton, where's your wife?'

[tikay]

Santi Cazorla is 10/3 with to be Arsenals leading premier league scorer by the end of the season. Seems too big to me.

He currently has 7 and has everyone has seen he is absolutely amazing and is always looking for the ball and also looking to get into the box all the time. Has started every game thus far.

Podolski has 5 goals, he rarely plays a full 90 minutes for Arsenal but is a decent finisher still, he has played more on the left wing that centre forward recently though.

Giroud has 4 and has looked average when he has played. He has had 6 of his 17 apps from the bench.

Walcott has 5 but has 7 from 14 apps from the bench and it looks as though him and Giroud will be rotated in a centre forward role.

Gervinho is awful, enough said.

Thoughts? Think it could be worth a heavy wager.

I love him to bits, he has become (Wilshere apart) the star of the Team for me, but I think 4/1 is a little short, to be honest. Notwithstanding anything else, he could do an ankle & be out for 3 months.

I am a member of his fan club though.