Tips for Tikay

[pokerfan]

Swansea Bradford.....Vintage year!

Get in!!

not that long ago this could have been The Johnson's Paint final

Very close, I went to Swansea Huddersfield in the Autoglass Trophy Final.

So did i

[bobby1]

cheers Red so with adjustments about 18-20%?


It wouldn't be that difficult if we had the back end of a team to score first tool as we would then have a full 90 minutes list of prices for team to score first at any minute of the game. If we multiply that by the price Man Utd would be to win the game in the same minute should Liverpool have scored the first goal in that minute we would then know what price the Liverpool to take the lead and Man Utd to win price was for every minute of the game. Same for the Man Utd to lead and Liverpool to win too.

It would be interesting if nothing else.

[TightEnd]

Stat of the night

Leon Best, the ex Newcastle and Sheff Wed striker, has seen five Blackburn Rovers managers be appointed, and four leave, before he has even kicked a ball for the club

(he did a cruciate shortly after signing for £3m under a year ago)

[redarmi]

cheers Red so with adjustments about 18-20%?


It wouldn't be that difficult if we had the back end of a team to score first tool as we would then have a full 90 minutes list of prices for team to score first at any minute of the game. If we multiply that by the price Man Utd would be to win the game in the same minute should Liverpool have scored the first goal in that minute we would then know what price the Liverpool to take the lead and Man Utd to win price was for every minute of the game. Same for the Man Utd to lead and Liverpool to win too.

It would be interesting if nothing else.

Yeah I actually thought about that after I posted.  It would be fairly straightforward to do it like that just a bit time consuming.  A few years ago I spent a lot of time putting together all the maths for various different football bets that were offered and once I had mastered the obvious stuff like -FT, handicaps, first goalscorers etc I started work on the more esoteric stuff like scorecasts, players to score hatricks etc.  What i found was that generally speaking this stuff has a LOT of margin in it because the books don't have to offer a two way line (ie the price for it not to happen) so it isn't transparent what margin they are betting to so they take whatever they think they can get away with.  I could see the odd notional situation where there could potentially be value available but generally it was where the original game and goal markets had moved a long way and this price was stale and even then it was generally likely to be very thin.  I would suggest that this is another example of such a price and the time you would have to put into figuring out whether it was value would almost certainly not be worth the value you could get from it.

[scotty2hatty]

Stat of the night

Leon Best, the ex Newcastle and Sheff Wed striker, has seen five Blackburn Rovers managers be appointed, and four leave, before he has even kicked a ball for the club

(he did a cruciate shortly after signing for £3m under a year ago)

This can't be right, he only signed in the summer.

[TightEnd]

Kean
Eric Black
Berg
Gary Bowyer
Appleton, shortly

including caretakers

[TightEnd]

Great start for the Bell bet, 67 not out and counting on just about the flattest wicket you will see

Pujara was not selected, which is a frustration

[Tal]

Looks like they need 300+ and that would be hard to achieve with an end-holder-upper.

Our bowlers (especially Bell) should do more damage than theirs but not convinced getting bowled out is all that likely (run outs may be the main threat)

[Tal]

Scrap that. 350 will win this game

[Doobs]

Looks like they need 300+ and that would be hard to achieve with an end-holder-upper.

Our bowlers (especially Bell) should do more damage than theirs but not convinced getting bowled out is all that likely (run outs may be the main threat)

Top bokking Tal.

[Tal]

Only one way to find out...

Well at least Kylie, Kate Moss and Sienna Miller haven't turned up at work to compete for my heart.

 

[david3103]

cheers Red so with adjustments about 18-20%?


It wouldn't be that difficult if we had the back end of a team to score first tool as we would then have a full 90 minutes list of prices for team to score first at any minute of the game. If we multiply that by the price Man Utd would be to win the game in the same minute should Liverpool have scored the first goal in that minute we would then know what price the Liverpool to take the lead and Man Utd to win price was for every minute of the game. Same for the Man Utd to lead and Liverpool to win too.

It would be interesting if nothing else.

Yeah I actually thought about that after I posted.  It would be fairly straightforward to do it like that just a bit time consuming.  A few years ago I spent a lot of time putting together all the maths for various different football bets that were offered and once I had mastered the obvious stuff like -FT, handicaps, first goalscorers etc I started work on the more esoteric stuff like scorecasts, players to score hatricks etc.  What i found was that generally speaking this stuff has a LOT of margin in it because the books don't have to offer a two way line (ie the price for it not to happen) so it isn't transparent what margin they are betting to so they take whatever they think they can get away with.  I could see the odd notional situation where there could potentially be value available but generally it was where the original game and goal markets had moved a long way and this price was stale and even then it was generally likely to be very thin.  I would suggest that this is another example of such a price and the time you would have to put into figuring out whether it was value would almost certainly not be worth the value you could get from it.

The level of analysis in this thread continues to amaze, and the insight offered is more than likely priceless.

Thanks to bobby and Red in particular.

My post was speculative, based on the thought that this fixture will be hard fought and that recent history suggests that scoring first doesn't make you winners. Especially scoring first vs Manchester United.
Not a Fred bet though, and almost certainly not value generally.

All that being said, if Liverpool do score early it's likely I'll be backing United in-play.

[superwomble]

Just going back to a previous Fred topic, I just opened a banana for my son - used the 'correct' way to do it. Much easier - why did I not know about that before!

[AndrewT]

England are only going to get about 300, which is below par on this pitch, yet India are 2.5 on Betfair, because people think anything near 300 is above par generally in ODIs.

I've lumped on India here - as shonky as their batting can be, they're generally OK on flat pitches.

[Tal]

A bit of thinking aloud, if I may...

Is there a rule of thumb that the more money a bookie expects to take on a market, the lower the margin will be?

This is a commercial position, I suppose. If you make 8p for every purchase, you can drop it to 5p, bring in customers from your rivals and make more money. If there isn't a market big enough, you have to keep your margins high.

The chess market we looked at last month was incredibly nitty but I expect there would have been only a few hundred quid on each game nationwide I think one was almost 120% which you'd almost be better off playing casino slots.

It might also reflect the confidence in the odds-setter in the accuracy of their lines. A premiership football outright match market is nearly always about right (I am led to believe) and the compiler can get within I imagine +/- 5% with relative ease because of the scale of available info and experience.

I appreciate there's also the issue of where you're expecting the money to come from but that's as much about where you put the line as it is how big your margin is.

Any of this sound reasonable?