blonde poker forum
Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
July 24, 2025, 10:40:32 PM

Login with username, password and session length
Search:     Advanced search
2262428 Posts in 66607 Topics by 16991 Members
Latest Member: nolankerwin
* Home Help Arcade Search Calendar Guidelines Login Register
+  blonde poker forum
|-+  Community Forums
| |-+  Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
| | |-+  Tips for Tikay
0 Members and 33 Guests are viewing this topic. « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 1733 1734 1735 1736 [1737] 1738 1739 1740 1741 ... 9209 Go Down Print
Author Topic: Tips for Tikay  (Read 16447641 times)
AndrewT
Global Moderator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 15483



View Profile WWW
« Reply #26040 on: January 11, 2013, 10:05:59 AM »

Brilliant - as soon as I get my bet on, Samit Patel turns into Chris Gayle on an angry day.
Logged
scotty2hatty
Gamesmaster
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 9178



View Profile
« Reply #26041 on: January 11, 2013, 10:17:32 AM »

Kean
Eric Black
Berg
Gary Bowyer
Appleton, shortly

including caretakers

Got you
Logged
doubleup
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 7130


View Profile
« Reply #26042 on: January 11, 2013, 11:21:31 AM »



Is there a rule of thumb that the more money a bookie expects to take on a market, the lower the margin will be?


I think so, but one of the experts who know how the books work should be able to confirm
Logged
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 16733


View Profile
« Reply #26043 on: January 11, 2013, 11:36:58 AM »



Is there a rule of thumb that the more money a bookie expects to take on a market, the lower the margin will be?


I think so, but one of the experts who know how the books work should be able to confirm

I think it is more competition that drives the margin down. Betfair had driven down margins across many markets.  So if Betfair has a liquid market then margins are only ever going to be small. 

They can charge bigger margins where Betfair/other bookmakers don't compete (such as chess) or the liquidity on Betfair isn't strong(say correct score betting).

If you look at some other markets they can charge big margins by differentiating from Betfair/other bookmakers.
 If you look at the points bands on rugby matches for instance.  Betfair may set a market at 0-7, 8-14, 15 -21 point margins.  Joe blogs bookmaker can then offer 0-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20 etc.  If you look at these prices you will find some pretty hefty margins.
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Tal
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 24288


"He's always at it!"


View Profile
« Reply #26044 on: January 11, 2013, 12:03:41 PM »

Thanks, chaps. Always good to learn
Logged

"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
kinboshi
ROMANES EUNT DOMUS
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 44239


We go again.


View Profile WWW
« Reply #26045 on: January 11, 2013, 12:59:29 PM »

cheers Red so with adjustments about 18-20%?


It wouldn't be that difficult if we had the back end of a team to score first tool as we would then have a full 90 minutes list of prices for team to score first at any minute of the game. If we multiply that by the price Man Utd would be to win the game in the same minute should Liverpool have scored the first goal in that minute we would then know what price the Liverpool to take the lead and Man Utd to win price was for every minute of the game. Same for the Man Utd to lead and Liverpool to win too.

It would be interesting if nothing else.


Yeah I actually thought about that after I posted.  It would be fairly straightforward to do it like that just a bit time consuming.  A few years ago I spent a lot of time putting together all the maths for various different football bets that were offered and once I had mastered the obvious stuff like -FT, handicaps, first goalscorers etc I started work on the more esoteric stuff like scorecasts, players to score hatricks etc.  What i found was that generally speaking this stuff has a LOT of margin in it because the books don't have to offer a two way line (ie the price for it not to happen) so it isn't transparent what margin they are betting to so they take whatever they think they can get away with.  I could see the odd notional situation where there could potentially be value available but generally it was where the original game and goal markets had moved a long way and this price was stale and even then it was generally likely to be very thin.  I would suggest that this is another example of such a price and the time you would have to put into figuring out whether it was value would almost certainly not be worth the value you could get from it.

The level of analysis in this thread continues to amaze, and the insight offered is more than likely priceless.

Thanks to bobby and Red in particular.

My post was speculative, based on the thought that this fixture will be hard fought and that recent history suggests that scoring first doesn't make you winners. Especially scoring first vs Manchester United.
Not a Fred bet though, and almost certainly not value generally.

All that being said, if Liverpool do score early it's likely I'll be backing United in-play.


Liverpool have thrown away a fair few leads this season, and over the past few seasons have rarely come from being behind to win.  Whereas Man U are very good at not knowing when they're beaten, and a 0-1 lead for Liverpool on Sunday would probably be a good time to back Man U - but only if there's value there, and I'm sure the prices for this match are going to be pretty sharp?
Logged

'The meme for blind faith secures its own perpetuation by the simple unconscious expedient of discouraging rational inquiry.'
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #26046 on: January 11, 2013, 02:24:25 PM »


Dean Saunders takes his new Team, Wolves, into battle v Blackburn Rovers tonight.

He announced his arrival with this statement.......


DEAN SAUNDERS has ­taken Big Macs off the menu as he gets tough with his new Wolves side.

The former Wales international is taking discipline to a new level by ­telling his players they will not have a future if they eat at McDonald’s.

Saunders will be in charge of his first game since he succeeded Stale Solbakken when Blackburn visit ­Molineux tonight.

And he wants to run the club with military precision.

He said: “Obviously we are not in the army, but there have to be rules in place. Not being late for training, not leaving your training kit on the floor.

“You take that code on to the pitch with you. Being in for treatment on time, ­living your life properly, not ­going away from here and into ­McDonald’s, ­eating like an athlete.

“I don’t think Jessica Ennis stops off at McDonald’s on the way home. I don’t think so, looking at her.

“That’s discipline. To be able to say no to things that don’t make you play very well.

“You need to respect your ­team-mates. And respect ­authority. If the manager tells you to do something, do it!”


Saunders said: “Without discipline you have ­nothing. Football is a ­watered down version of the army, discipline-wise.

“In the army they make you clean your shoes. And they make you keep your bed tidy.

“They make you do things you don’t want to do. And you have to obey the orders.

“You are together as a group. And you get used to obeying instructions and respecting authority.

“It keeps everybody together on the same sheet.

“If you go into war and two soldiers do their own thing they get the rest killed.”



Wolves are 6/4 to win tonight.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/wolverhampton-v-blackburn/winner
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
The Camel
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 17075


Under my tree, being a troll.


View Profile
« Reply #26047 on: January 11, 2013, 02:28:09 PM »

Dean Saunders is a twat.

imo.
Logged

Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
77dave
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 4010


5 2 off


View Profile WWW
« Reply #26048 on: January 11, 2013, 02:29:59 PM »

6 English batsman faced at least 1 ball today in the odi and all 6 scored at least one six is this a record?
Logged

Mantis - I would like to thank 77dave for his more realistic take on things.
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #26049 on: January 11, 2013, 02:30:27 PM »

cheers Red so with adjustments about 18-20%?


It wouldn't be that difficult if we had the back end of a team to score first tool as we would then have a full 90 minutes list of prices for team to score first at any minute of the game. If we multiply that by the price Man Utd would be to win the game in the same minute should Liverpool have scored the first goal in that minute we would then know what price the Liverpool to take the lead and Man Utd to win price was for every minute of the game. Same for the Man Utd to lead and Liverpool to win too.

It would be interesting if nothing else.


Yeah I actually thought about that after I posted.  It would be fairly straightforward to do it like that just a bit time consuming.  A few years ago I spent a lot of time putting together all the maths for various different football bets that were offered and once I had mastered the obvious stuff like -FT, handicaps, first goalscorers etc I started work on the more esoteric stuff like scorecasts, players to score hatricks etc.  What i found was that generally speaking this stuff has a LOT of margin in it because the books don't have to offer a two way line (ie the price for it not to happen) so it isn't transparent what margin they are betting to so they take whatever they think they can get away with.  I could see the odd notional situation where there could potentially be value available but generally it was where the original game and goal markets had moved a long way and this price was stale and even then it was generally likely to be very thin.  I would suggest that this is another example of such a price and the time you would have to put into figuring out whether it was value would almost certainly not be worth the value you could get from it.

The level of analysis in this thread continues to amaze, and the insight offered is more than likely priceless.

Thanks to bobby and Red in particular.

My post was speculative, based on the thought that this fixture will be hard fought and that recent history suggests that scoring first doesn't make you winners. Especially scoring first vs Manchester United.
Not a Fred bet though, and almost certainly not value generally.

All that being said,.

Incredible analysis, eh, David?

If reds & Bobby don't mind, perhaps we can take this a stage further.


".... if Liverpool do score early it's likely I'll be backing United in-play..."

Let us assume Liverpool take a 1-0 lead in the 30th minute, (for ease of maths).

What price will you back Man Utd at?

Any price, or do you have a a specific price in mind?

If they have the time to spare, reds or Bobby (& maybe others) will be able, I think, to give you a precise "value" figure for Man Utd to win after being 1 down at 30 minutes. 
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
The Camel
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 17075


Under my tree, being a troll.


View Profile
« Reply #26050 on: January 11, 2013, 02:31:45 PM »

Can't find on the net, it must have been on the radio or tv.

But Saunders diatribe about depression was truly unbelievable.
Logged

Congratulations to the 2012 League Champion - Stapleton Atheists

"Keith The Camel, a true champion!" - Brent Horner 30th December 2012

"I dont think you're a wanker Keith" David Nicholson 4th March 2013
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #26051 on: January 11, 2013, 02:34:54 PM »

Dean Saunders is a twat.

imo.


Oooh!

Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #26052 on: January 11, 2013, 02:35:21 PM »

England won a thrilling first ODI, their first win in 14 ODIs in India

Scoring over 300 and holding on by 9 runs

Bell top scored with 85 and is now 6/4 favourite in the Top English batter market. A good start, but early days

Tredwell took four wickets, and might be a bet that got away! We'll see if the subsequent pitches are as good as this one, and as unhelpful to Finn etc

England won as underdogs. I still suggest 3-2 either way is pretty likely as a series scoe and there is money to be made backing the underdog pre-match in every game. Each ODI is essentially evens each of two, and like this one where England were 11/8 pre match, there is a smidge of value in going contrarian.

By the by the new rules limiting teams to only 4 players outside the fielding circle means that totals are going to rise, structurally. Something to watch for match total bets etc

Logged

My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: I am a geek!!



View Profile
« Reply #26053 on: January 11, 2013, 02:36:53 PM »

6 English batsman faced at least 1 ball today in the odi and all 6 scored at least one six is this a record?

Seems unlikely Jim.

Maybe Bill Tighty Frindall will know.
Logged

All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link - http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY (copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Doobs
Hero Member
*****
Offline Offline

Posts: 16733


View Profile
« Reply #26054 on: January 11, 2013, 02:37:11 PM »

Should have said McDonald's and other fast food outlets.  Leave our McNuggets alone.
Logged

Most of the bets placed so far seem more like hopeful punts rather than value spots
Pages: 1 ... 1733 1734 1735 1736 [1737] 1738 1739 1740 1741 ... 9209 Go Up Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  

Powered by MySQL Powered by PHP Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines Valid XHTML 1.0! Valid CSS!
Page created in 0.379 seconds with 19 queries.