Tips for Tikay

[AndrewT]

Brilliant - as soon as I get my bet on, Samit Patel turns into Chris Gayle on an angry day.

[scotty2hatty]

Kean
Eric Black
Berg
Gary Bowyer
Appleton, shortly

including caretakers

Got you

[doubleup]

Is there a rule of thumb that the more money a bookie expects to take on a market, the lower the margin will be?

I think so, but one of the experts who know how the books work should be able to confirm

[Doobs]

Is there a rule of thumb that the more money a bookie expects to take on a market, the lower the margin will be?

I think so, but one of the experts who know how the books work should be able to confirm

I think it is more competition that drives the margin down. Betfair had driven down margins across many markets.  So if Betfair has a liquid market then margins are only ever going to be small. 

They can charge bigger margins where Betfair/other bookmakers don't compete (such as chess) or the liquidity on Betfair isn't strong(say correct score betting).

If you look at some other markets they can charge big margins by differentiating from Betfair/other bookmakers.
 If you look at the points bands on rugby matches for instance.  Betfair may set a market at 0-7, 8-14, 15 -21 point margins.  Joe blogs bookmaker can then offer 0-5, 6-10, 11-15, 16-20 etc.  If you look at these prices you will find some pretty hefty margins.

[Tal]

Thanks, chaps. Always good to learn

[kinboshi]

cheers Red so with adjustments about 18-20%?


It wouldn't be that difficult if we had the back end of a team to score first tool as we would then have a full 90 minutes list of prices for team to score first at any minute of the game. If we multiply that by the price Man Utd would be to win the game in the same minute should Liverpool have scored the first goal in that minute we would then know what price the Liverpool to take the lead and Man Utd to win price was for every minute of the game. Same for the Man Utd to lead and Liverpool to win too.

It would be interesting if nothing else.

Yeah I actually thought about that after I posted.  It would be fairly straightforward to do it like that just a bit time consuming.  A few years ago I spent a lot of time putting together all the maths for various different football bets that were offered and once I had mastered the obvious stuff like -FT, handicaps, first goalscorers etc I started work on the more esoteric stuff like scorecasts, players to score hatricks etc.  What i found was that generally speaking this stuff has a LOT of margin in it because the books don't have to offer a two way line (ie the price for it not to happen) so it isn't transparent what margin they are betting to so they take whatever they think they can get away with.  I could see the odd notional situation where there could potentially be value available but generally it was where the original game and goal markets had moved a long way and this price was stale and even then it was generally likely to be very thin.  I would suggest that this is another example of such a price and the time you would have to put into figuring out whether it was value would almost certainly not be worth the value you could get from it.

The level of analysis in this thread continues to amaze, and the insight offered is more than likely priceless.

Thanks to bobby and Red in particular.

My post was speculative, based on the thought that this fixture will be hard fought and that recent history suggests that scoring first doesn't make you winners. Especially scoring first vs Manchester United.
Not a Fred bet though, and almost certainly not value generally.

All that being said, if Liverpool do score early it's likely I'll be backing United in-play.

Liverpool have thrown away a fair few leads this season, and over the past few seasons have rarely come from being behind to win.  Whereas Man U are very good at not knowing when they're beaten, and a 0-1 lead for Liverpool on Sunday would probably be a good time to back Man U - but only if there's value there, and I'm sure the prices for this match are going to be pretty sharp?

[tikay]

Dean Saunders takes his new Team, Wolves, into battle v Blackburn Rovers tonight.

He announced his arrival with this statement.......


DEAN SAUNDERS has ­taken Big Macs off the menu as he gets tough with his new Wolves side.

The former Wales international is taking discipline to a new level by ­telling his players they will not have a future if they eat at McDonald’s.

Saunders will be in charge of his first game since he succeeded Stale Solbakken when Blackburn visit ­Molineux tonight.

And he wants to run the club with military precision.

He said: “Obviously we are not in the army, but there have to be rules in place. Not being late for training, not leaving your training kit on the floor.

“You take that code on to the pitch with you. Being in for treatment on time, ­living your life properly, not ­going away from here and into ­McDonald’s, ­eating like an athlete.

“I don’t think Jessica Ennis stops off at McDonald’s on the way home. I don’t think so, looking at her.

“That’s discipline. To be able to say no to things that don’t make you play very well.

“You need to respect your ­team-mates. And respect ­authority. If the manager tells you to do something, do it!”

Saunders said: “Without discipline you have ­nothing. Football is a ­watered down version of the army, discipline-wise.

“In the army they make you clean your shoes. And they make you keep your bed tidy.

“They make you do things you don’t want to do. And you have to obey the orders.

“You are together as a group. And you get used to obeying instructions and respecting authority.

“It keeps everybody together on the same sheet.

“If you go into war and two soldiers do their own thing they get the rest killed.”


Wolves are 6/4 to win tonight.


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/wolverhampton-v-blackburn/winner

[The Camel]

Dean Saunders is a twat.

imo.

[77dave]

6 English batsman faced at least 1 ball today in the odi and all 6 scored at least one six is this a record?

[tikay]

cheers Red so with adjustments about 18-20%?


It wouldn't be that difficult if we had the back end of a team to score first tool as we would then have a full 90 minutes list of prices for team to score first at any minute of the game. If we multiply that by the price Man Utd would be to win the game in the same minute should Liverpool have scored the first goal in that minute we would then know what price the Liverpool to take the lead and Man Utd to win price was for every minute of the game. Same for the Man Utd to lead and Liverpool to win too.

It would be interesting if nothing else.

Yeah I actually thought about that after I posted.  It would be fairly straightforward to do it like that just a bit time consuming.  A few years ago I spent a lot of time putting together all the maths for various different football bets that were offered and once I had mastered the obvious stuff like -FT, handicaps, first goalscorers etc I started work on the more esoteric stuff like scorecasts, players to score hatricks etc.  What i found was that generally speaking this stuff has a LOT of margin in it because the books don't have to offer a two way line (ie the price for it not to happen) so it isn't transparent what margin they are betting to so they take whatever they think they can get away with.  I could see the odd notional situation where there could potentially be value available but generally it was where the original game and goal markets had moved a long way and this price was stale and even then it was generally likely to be very thin.  I would suggest that this is another example of such a price and the time you would have to put into figuring out whether it was value would almost certainly not be worth the value you could get from it.

The level of analysis in this thread continues to amaze, and the insight offered is more than likely priceless.

Thanks to bobby and Red in particular.

My post was speculative, based on the thought that this fixture will be hard fought and that recent history suggests that scoring first doesn't make you winners. Especially scoring first vs Manchester United.
Not a Fred bet though, and almost certainly not value generally.

All that being said,.

Incredible analysis, eh, David?

If reds & Bobby don't mind, perhaps we can take this a stage further.


".... if Liverpool do score early it's likely I'll be backing United in-play..."

Let us assume Liverpool take a 1-0 lead in the 30th minute, (for ease of maths).

What price will you back Man Utd at?

Any price, or do you have a a specific price in mind?

If they have the time to spare, reds or Bobby (& maybe others) will be able, I think, to give you a precise "value" figure for Man Utd to win after being 1 down at 30 minutes. 

[The Camel]

Can't find on the net, it must have been on the radio or tv.

But Saunders diatribe about depression was truly unbelievable.

[tikay]

Dean Saunders is a twat.

imo.

Oooh!

[TightEnd]

England won a thrilling first ODI, their first win in 14 ODIs in India

Scoring over 300 and holding on by 9 runs

Bell top scored with 85 and is now 6/4 favourite in the Top English batter market. A good start, but early days

Tredwell took four wickets, and might be a bet that got away! We'll see if the subsequent pitches are as good as this one, and as unhelpful to Finn etc

England won as underdogs. I still suggest 3-2 either way is pretty likely as a series scoe and there is money to be made backing the underdog pre-match in every game. Each ODI is essentially evens each of two, and like this one where England were 11/8 pre match, there is a smidge of value in going contrarian.

By the by the new rules limiting teams to only 4 players outside the fielding circle means that totals are going to rise, structurally. Something to watch for match total bets etc

[tikay]

6 English batsman faced at least 1 ball today in the odi and all 6 scored at least one six is this a record?

Seems unlikely Jim.

Maybe Bill Tighty Frindall will know.

[Doobs]

Dean Saunders is a twat.

imo.

Oooh!

Should have said McDonald's and other fast food outlets.  Leave our McNuggets alone.