Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Here's one that might be worth a little tickle:

Adel Taarabt to be carded dring QPR v Spurs. 4/1 at BlueSq or 888. He has been booked in 4 of 16 matches so far so the odds look about right. However, this game is against his former club so he may well be trying just that bit too hard. Also, 3 of his 4 bookings have come against fellow London clubs.

Maybe £20 on it?

Thanks Womble.

We will have a look at that.

I had a look at the Market, it is very odd, how do they price these up I wonder? The Bookies must do well out of these if there are not many Cards. Presumably they assume "average" cards & work from there?



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/qpr-v-tottenham/to-be-shown-a-card

[Ant040689]

Here's one that might be worth a little tickle:

Adel Taarabt to be carded dring QPR v Spurs. 4/1 at BlueSq or 888. He has been booked in 4 of 16 matches so far so the odds look about right. However, this game is against his former club so he may well be trying just that bit too hard. Also, 3 of his 4 bookings have come against fellow London clubs.

Maybe £20 on it?

Thanks Womble.

We will have a look at that.

I had a look at the Market, it is very odd, how do they price these up I wonder? The Bookies must do well out of these if there are not many Cards. Presumably they assume "average" cards & work from there?



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/qpr-v-tottenham/to-be-shown-a-card

For 888sport they are doing two markets, one for him to be red carded and one for him to be booked. If i go for the booking one, do I win if he gets a straight red?

[Ant040689]

silly q, its early.

[tikay]

We are a couple of weeks away from the Start of the Six Nations, one of the best sporting periods of the year

The fixtures are as follows

    Sat 2 Feb: Wales v Ireland, England v Scotland
    Sun 3 Feb: Italy v France
    Sat 9 Feb: Scotland v Italy, France v Wales
    Sun 10 Feb: Ireland v England
    Sat 23 Feb: Italy v Wales, England v France
    Sun 24 Feb: Scotland v Ireland
    Sat 9 Mar: Scotland v Wales, Ireland v France
    Sun 10 Mar: England v Italy
    Sat 16 Mar: Italy v Ireland, Wales v England, France v Scotland

These are of note because

a) France have to go to England and Ireland
b) Two of Ireland's three away games are at Italy/Scotland

Point a) is crucial and in years when France have these fixtures (home and aways alternate year by year) France are far less likely to win the grand slam than when they host the tougher teams and travel to Italy and Scotland.....

There is no outstanding British team either, and this follows a period where we have had 4 Grand Slams in 5 years and 7 in 12 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Six_Nations_Championship)

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/grand-slam

I am not sure you have any appetite to back a 7/10 shot, but the true odds of there being no Grand Slam this year is well under 1/2 in my opinion

In terms of the winners market

http://www.oddschecker.com/rugby-union/six-nations/six-nations/winner

- As explained above France do not appeal at 2-1 given the schedule. Every year they look the most talented team, but throw in an off day usually away.
- Only once in the last six sets of these fixtures (ie every other year) have France won the six nations. A crucial and overlooked point by current prices.
- Wales have injury problems and a rotten Autumn to contend with
- England are improving, but are a touch one dimensional to win five games on the trot, especially travelling to Dublin and Cardiff
- Italy and Scotland are genuine outsiders

Which leaves Ireland at 9/2

Ireland are between generations. O'Connell, O'Driscoll and the rest are passing the mantle on, though it appears O'Driscoll is fit again for this Six Nations

However, there is no outstanding team in my opinion
They have a favourable schedule (starting at Cardiff is a tough start, but I like it after that)
They have a superb kicker in Johnny Sexton, who is probably the Lions Test Kicker as it stands. He's 27, at his peak and will keep them in every game, especially in bad weather
They have a competitive pack both front row (Healy, Ross, Best/Strauss) and back row (Heaslip and O'Brien if fit)

and, structurally, years of Heineken Cup exposure has given many of their players from Munster and Leinster far more big match experience than former Irish teams used to have

This price, 9/2, is an interesting situation in a competition so open

Recommend £20 at 9/2 Ireland to win the Six Nations.

Thanks Rich.

I really like that, a potential 6 week sweat & a sporting price.

We have £20 @ 9/2, Betfred, Ireland to win the "6 Nations".

ON

Six Nations Outright 2013
Tournament Outright
 Ireland 9/2 
Total stake £ 20.00
Estimated return £ 110.00

Full stake £ 20.00
Full estimated return £ 110.00

[Tal]

Taraabt scored probably the best goal I've ever seen live. It was for spurs reserves against Birmingham City reserves at Redditch United's ground in front of about 200 people.

Clive Allen had spent an hour shouting at him in French to get him to concentrate. He then got the ball at about half way, dribbled past two players, did a trick to get past Martin Taylor, a touch to the right and bent it from the edge of the box into the top corner.

He's a bit like Wilshere for bookings. He gets frustrated when the team's not doing well so might leave a boot in.

4/1 is probably on the high side if 'Arry doesn't decide to sub him for the last 20.

[tikay]

Reminder

There is an NFL Double Header tonight on Sky Sports.

Ravens @ Broncos starts at 9.35pm.

That is followed at 1.05am by Green Bay Packers v San Francisco 49ers. BIG night ahead for us.

[TL900]

Lets go Ravenssssssssssssssssssssssssssss

and 49ers

[bobby1]

Suggestion here.

Oxford to beat Bradford away from home at 3/1. Oxford have won their last three games in the league, Bradford have lost 2 of their last three. Bradford will be coming down from their heroics against Villa too.

Thoughts?

I like this as Bradford are a team I am against today for these reasons.

[Doobs]

Here's one that might be worth a little tickle:

Adel Taarabt to be carded dring QPR v Spurs. 4/1 at BlueSq or 888. He has been booked in 4 of 16 matches so far so the odds look about right. However, this game is against his former club so he may well be trying just that bit too hard. Also, 3 of his 4 bookings have come against fellow London clubs.

Maybe £20 on it?

Thanks Womble.

We will have a look at that.

I had a look at the Market, it is very odd, how do they price these up I wonder? The Bookies must do well out of these if there are not many Cards. Presumably they assume "average" cards & work from there?



http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/qpr-v-tottenham/to-be-shown-a-card

I am sure they would use 120 statistics rather than 16.

http://www.statbunker.com/football/btb/index.php?PL=player&PlayerID=19104&PlayerCompType=1&StatType=byComptype

21 bookings in 120 games doesn't read so well.

[tikay]

Suggestion here.

Oxford to beat Bradford away from home at 3/1. Oxford have won their last three games in the league, Bradford have lost 2 of their last three. Bradford will be coming down from their heroics against Villa too.

Thoughts?

Bobby has also supported this one, Ant.

I think we will have a little dabble, but we have other options too - Laying Bradford, DNB etc.

Is backing Oxford @ 3/1 the best route?

We can get 2/1 Oxford DNB with Coral.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/bradford-v-oxford/draw-no-bet

We can LAY Bradford @ 2.08.

[MANTIS01]

Dean Saunders is a hero to me. He was a legend at Derby and throughout his career has been a model professional. Whilst many modern footballers get caught up with scandals and controversy I can't remember a single incident on or off the pitch involving Deano. Always gave his best, a great character in the dressing room, and a real genuine fella. He deserves his shot and has already demonstrated players respond to him and get motivated by him. On the twat scale of footballers where John Terry is at the top Dean Saunders is bottom of the league imo. He even caused Mark Lawrenson to walk away from football. I love you Deano I do.

Much higher up the twat scale is Riland who is basically gone from bb house now

[Ant040689]

Suggestion here.

Oxford to beat Bradford away from home at 3/1. Oxford have won their last three games in the league, Bradford have lost 2 of their last three. Bradford will be coming down from their heroics against Villa too.

Thoughts?

Bobby has also supported this one, Ant.

I think we will have a little dabble, but we have other options too - Laying Bradford, DNB etc.

Is backing Oxford @ 3/1 the best route?

We can get 2/1 Oxford DNB with Coral.

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/league-2/bradford-v-oxford/draw-no-bet

We can LAY Bradford @ 2.08.

I would recommend the lay or the outright win over the DnB only because the latter lacks a scoop.

[Tal]

Aaron Lennon is 31/5 with betfair to score today anytime. This is a full point bigger than the field. Some bookies are 3/1!

The lad's in good form but that's neither here nor there, I suppose.

Imagine there's a little liquidity in the markets at 10am before a 12.45 kick off.

Any thoughts?

[kukushkin88]

Dean Saunders is a hero to me. He was a legend at Derby and throughout his career has been a model professional. Whilst many modern footballers get caught up with scandals and controversy I can't remember a single incident on or off the pitch involving Deano. Always gave his best, a great character in the dressing room, and a real genuine fella. He deserves his shot and has already demonstrated players respond to him and get motivated by him. On the twat scale of footballers where John Terry is at the top Dean Saunders is bottom of the league imo. He even caused Mark Lawrenson to walk away from football. I love you Deano I do.

Much higher up the twat scale is Riland who is basically gone from bb house now

His dad was a lovely guy too. Had horses with Philip Hobbs and used to give us some good info when there were big gambles planned.

On the Taarabt bet I would sugest that he is more likely to get boked vs Spurs than in most other games but that it is very much already in the price.

[TightEnd]

Notts County to beat Portsmouth this weekend 21/20 BetVictor £20 (for me, 2 unit bet rom a 5 unit bet max)

This is the only market price that does not have County odds on against a free-falling Pompey. Thought I had better hurry up, as I don't expect it to last.

County haven't been in great form, but since Appleton let for Blackpool Pompey are all over the place.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20946060

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/20889852