Tips for Tikay

[77dave]

How does Fred feel about its QPR bet if both Remy and M'Vila both sign.

QPR currently 1.4 to go down.

[BigAdz]

Ladbrokes 4/6 Rylan for CBB beats Betfair. Sure can get on with them. Should be 1/3 for anyone not on as yet.

Does the voting public know what they are doing by helping to create this monster?

You only have to look at the host to remind yourself what these sinners have done........

[Tal]

How does Fred feel about its QPR bet if both Remy and M'Vila both sign.

QPR currently 1.4 to go down.

Remy has been floating around the transfer markets for the last couple of years. To my mind, there must be something wrong with him. Stoke almost signed him, Spurs were linked but nothing happened, no other big club (hoping to get away with that...) has gone in for him despite an 8m price tag and now he's turning down Newcastle for QPR.

He must be better than D J Campbell in Arry's mind but who knows what he'll do when he's here.

[tikay]

For those that enjoy NBA.........

I mentioned elsewhere yesterday that there is an NBA game in London on Thursday (tomorrow) whixch will be terlervised Live on Sky Sports.

Today I noticed this on the BSkyB internal dubree system......

NBA coverage on Sky Sports continues with live Sunday night games for the rest of the regular season, including double-headers most weekends, followed by live NBA Playoff games, the entire Eastern Conference Finals, and every game of the NBA Finals in June.

[tikay]

PS - Unfortunately our little overnight bet on the NBA went south.

[Tal]

Do you think Sky will ever go in for horse racing?

[tikay]

Do you think Sky will ever go in for horse racing?

Well they are already a major partner/shareholder in ATR, see.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attheraces

There are various legal/OFCOM complications to bringing HorseRacing fully in-house, as a lot of the funding & branding comes from the Bookmakers, & it all gets a bit awkward. Also, BSKYB own SB&G (including Sky Bet) of course, which would muddy the water still further as to OFCOM etc.

I have no inside line on this, but logically, I would be surprised if they did more than they already do. Prime viewing hours on Sports Channels are in the Evenings, too, so afternoon racing, much as some love it, is like poker - it does not exactly excite the Ratings Bean Counters.

I think they will cover a lot more cycling though, fwiw. 

[Tal]

Do you think Sky will ever go in for horse racing?

Well they are already a major partner/shareholder in ATR, see.....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attheraces

There are various legal/OFCOM complications to bringing HorseRacing fully in-house, as a lot of the funding & branding comes from the Bookmakers, & it all gets a bit awkward. Also, BSKYB own SB&G (including Sky Bet) of course, which would muddy the water still further as to OFCOM etc.

I have no inside line on this, but logically, I would be surprised if they did more than they already do. Prime viewing hours on Sports Channels are in the Evenings, too, so afternoon racing, much as some love it, is like poker - it does not exactly excite the Ratings Bean Counters.

I think they will cover a lot more cycling though, fwiw. 

Well that all makes sense. Thanks.

[TL900]

For those that enjoy NBA.........

I mentioned elsewhere yesterday that there is an NBA game in London on Thursday (tomorrow) whixch will be terlervised Live on Sky Sports.

Today I noticed this on the BSkyB internal dubree system......

NBA coverage on Sky Sports continues with live Sunday night games for the rest of the regular season, including double-headers most weekends, followed by live NBA Playoff games, the entire Eastern Conference Finals, and every game of the NBA Finals in June.

Downswinging hard on the NBA front unfortunately

This excites me greatly though.

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 0905, Wednesday January 16th                     

PROFIT on Month = £210.60

Unsettled Bets  - £1,191.00


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=18

[Bad Beat]

 I don't think I can let this MVP thing just slip by.

 I am very confident that the winning QB is considerably shorter than 4/6 GIVEN that the match-up is NE/SF.

 I agree with Camel that the total will be high in a NESF SB, (maybe 51?), and that makes it less likely that a defensive player gets MVP.

 I agree with Doobs that in past years the QBs have often been pretty special and they have still won just 11 of 20.

 What is different about this match-up to quite a few of those is that there were other outstanding candidates. You could identify running backs for each team that were 5/1 and receivers that were 8/1 or 10/1.

 In this one I just can't see where the layer of the QBs at 1/2 or even 2/5 is getting his overound from.

 For a receiver to win they have to win, they have to score at least one td, prob 2 and they have to catch over 100yards. On top of all that they need the QB to have not had a big enough game in that lot to win. That is really hard. Given that neither side have one REALLY stand out receiver it would be hard to back any individual one at less than 16/1 imo.

 On the running backs I would not back Frank Gore at less than 10/1. He needs to win the game, for it to be dominated by run and he isn't even certain to rush for more than our Golden Boy.

 Again with Stevan Ridley - he would need a massive game and he hasn't really had too many of those all year. I couldn't back him in a  NESF SB at less than 10/1 even given the fact that he is more likely to be on the winning team.

 It feels like they'll bet on the day:

 10/11 Brady

 7/4 Kaepernick

 12/1 Gore

 16/1 Ridley

 16/1 Welker

 16/1 Crabtree

  20/1 Hernandez

 33/1 bar

 That comes to 122% I think and it feels like the "flab" is more likely in those outside the top two.

 Given that the 49ers are now 3.5 on Sunday and they could be a 64% chance to go through it may be that 10/3 is the right price at the moment, but if anyone would care to lay me 4/9 a qb wins MVP given a NE/SF match-up you know how to find me.

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 0910, Wednesday January 16th


We lost £22 yesterday.

Just the one completed bet, on the NBA, & we got proper hammered, this appears to be a recency trend.

We managed to miss Leeds @ 3.3 (we would only have had a small wager), & the Nap of the Day, Uwe Rosler's Brentford, cruised home to crush Team RastaFishSon.

We are on Federer in the Aussie Open Tennis thing, & he won his 1st Round in straights, 6-2, 6-4, 6-1.  

He remains freely available at 6/1.....

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/australian-open/mens/mens-australian-open/winner

In novelty bets, the Rylan chap, who we lumped on at 7/4, is now best priced 8/13.......

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/celebrity-big-brother/celebrity-big-brother/winner

[tikay]

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s214/splash/news/a450609/tom-daleys-splash-proving-a-ratings-success.html

Re the Splash Series 2 bet, this seems like a good bet given these ratings.

4.25m watched Mrs Brown's Boys.

No. Stop. No, I've done enough ranting today.

No.

Agreed. I think the very logic of the bet was simply that - those ratings are extremely high for ITV, & they have no interest whatsoever in quality, only ratings. They have not stooped as low as CBB yet, but given the chance, I half fancy they would, dross & novelty is right up their street.

[BigAdz]

Would like to recommend a Cheltenham Banzai bet.

Today at Newbury Colour Squadron goes in a 2.1m nervous chase. He is currently 40s generally with some 60s on the machine for the Arkle. If he wins today I expect he will be fourth fav at around 16s.

Plus factors. JP Mac is building a strong team for the Tuesday and has ante post fav in most of the races that day. He has yet to show anything of note in the arkle so will want representation. If it runs Ap will be on board. The field is likely to cut up with Simonsig a very strong fav, with plenty looking at the Jewson or handicaps as a way of avoiding him, ie Capt conan.

Last time AP had an amazing ride on CS with the saddle slipping half way round, yet the horse still almost won...worth a look.

Add in the old adage, never be scared of one horse, and I have to suggest Fred has 5ew today for the arkle.

It could be over before we get to Chelts but by 3pm we could be looking quite promising.

[Rubbish2407]

African Cup of Nations starts this weekend and I've had a little banzai bet on the top goalscorer. Lots of famous names on the list headed by none other than Didier Drogba. Way down the list though is Zambian captain Chris Katongo. Being Captain he's pretty much guaranteed a start and they have whipping boys Burkina Faso in their group, They also have Ethiopia who have either pulled out or been disqualified the last several tournaments. Katongo, I believe, although I'm not 100% certain, is the penalty taker.

Katongo was joint top scorer last tournament with three and he should be there or thereabouts this time as well.

You can currently get 33/1 at a few places, he's 20.00 on Betfair.

I've had a tenner E/W top 3 paid at BetVictor.

I'm not sure if you've missed this or are choosing to ignore it? I've bumped it in case it's the former.