Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

I'm in a different spot coz I am looking to lay about 2500 of San Fran in my outright book. The money was in at 1.56 and moved it to 1.58 but now the price is 1.61 I am not going to lay it at that price at this moment. The reason is I'm not sure the line falls to 3 so I am not sure the San Fran  ML can be much bigger than it is at the moment, so at the mo am in the camp of waiting it out and seeing if San Fran price moves the way I think it will.

If you are wanting to just lay some of the bet back as your hedge then you are in the same boat as me and might be better off waiting until nearer the game. If we are wrong and the price gets bigger then ok we called it wrong. So at the moment we are basically making a bet on which way the San Fran price goes if we just wait it out.

[BigAdz]

Doobsy knows me well enough to know I need these things spelling out, & with short words.

Understood Sir!

[class]

You are, currently

+£1610 SF win
- £250 Baltimore win

£500 on Baltimore +4 http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl/baltimore-ravens-at-san-francisco-49ers/point-spread at 10/11

Then

Outcome 1 SF win by more than 4 +£1110 (£1610-£500 = £1110)

Outcome 2 SF win but by less than 4  +1610 and Balt beat the spread +454 =Total profit £2064. You have played the middle/won both sides

Outcome 3 Baltimore win £454  less £250 SF Stake = Total Profit £204


This is, proportionately, what I have done

So has Keith, more importantly, but bigger..to the equivalent of £770


Definitely the right way to go I think

This is what I had in mind too.

[millidonk]

Cheers Tightamous. All makes perfect sense. 

[The Camel]

I doubt the line will go to 3.

(but I didn't think it would go to 3.5!)

I don't think there is any harm in waiting now, since the chance of going back to 4 > the chance it falling to 3.

And you'll be able to to bet 20/21 each of two next week.

Advice: do nothing yet.

[BigAdz]

Cheltenham bets update whilst quiet.

Lucky 15
Boston bob 10s- now best is
Sir DES champs 7 now
Rock on ruby10 now
Champion court still 10s

All still on target.


Dynaste back to lay at 350s. Went to 120s on betfair but not even a rumour will run in GC and drifted again on machine despite some bookies still quoting as low as 16s. Looks a dead duck.

[Bad Beat]

 Tal - You definitely have it sussed. I really hope the Arkansas Gravediggers join the league in the next expansion. I think they might be "my team".

 Ed - I liked your post but I shall pick up on one point. It's part of the general point I was trying to make, (obviously not well as people seem to think I'm simply talking specifically about hedging the 49ers and where I think the Super Bowl will close).

 You said - "the market is unlikely to be far wrong" and you are correct to an extent, when talking about NBA, NFL, Asian Handicaps etc. However, the market is  fluid thing. In all of these things an opener gets put up, maybe by very shrewd people at CRIS, The Greek and Pinnacle. People then bet it. The limits get higher as the event approaches and the price moves around and is Knocked into shape. It's like Betfair vs the bookies. The reason we can beat the bookies is because we just need one busy, underpaid guy who's having a bad day to make a mistake. It's hard to beat Betfair because we need the whole market of thousands of "Sharp Minds" to be wrong and us to be right.

 It is correct that the market has all the information at it's fingertips on the Super Bowl. The reason the line could be exploitable is if it has been moved by factors not related to the playing of American Football. One massive factor is the money bet, which could skew it one way because a team is fashionable, because the public overeact to information (injuries or weather - not in this case), because of our old pal recency etc etc.

 As in the Asian Handicaps, it's a very efficient market that can be beaten due to certain inefficiencies that crop up. Those are where the number is erring towards splitting the money and deviating from splitting the result.

 This is why we are able to beat the Asian Handicaps on the Premier League, but it is not a license to just say: "I think Spurs will win today because they won 3 of their last four away and Stoke don't score much and Joe Bloggs is not playing according to The Sun".

[Bad Beat]

 Keith - no need to get in a big argument or get cross. I wasn't even particularly proposing a bet for Fred. I was simply trying to get people to think a little more about what they do with this great position you have put everyone in. It kills me to think everyone will simply react by going to the outright market and pressing lay at whatever price happens to be up there.

 I was also trying to make some more general points to the thread about how seemingly "perfect" markets can be innefficient. I'd been meaning to write on the subject of whether you can beat the Premier League markets for some time.

 As I often do, I agree with Red. This line is going to take around ten times as much money to get to 3 as it is to get to 5.5 again. I'm sure you know that as well as I do, but I'm stressing it for those who are less experienced in this wonderful maket (the NFL). NFL betting is different from all other things because of "key numbers" (even from college football) and this is what makes it fascinating.

 The reason that no pros have taken San Fran yet is that there is no point. The Super Bowl is not happening until Sunday 3rd Feb and we now all know from history that the public (who nearer to the day will be 95% of this market, maybe higher on the day), are going to back Baltimore Money Line at lower prices than the spread (handicap) suggests are correct. A bookie looking to split the result and never give away a chance of winning would move the spread and money line together. ie if he takes money at 2.5 on Ravens money line and drops it to 2.38 then he'll "have" to move the spread to -3. We know he won't do that because he is worried about getting middled, so now we have an inefficient market that can be exploited.

 I don't personally believe the general number on this Super Bowl will reach 3. I believe that I will get 3 maybe at 5/6 or 4/5, but it will be hard to get full bet on. I am not entirely sure what I think the true line on this game should be but my gut feeling is 5.5. I could easily see it climbing to that by game day as the San Fran punters can wait now, but eventually they'll have to bet (it's hard to not bet).

 The other thing to remember about the San Fran pros is that if they can't get 3 then they will probably get the money line equivalent of -3 or better (4/6 or maybe even 8/11).

 If you surveyed 1000 pro bettors after this Super Bowl you'll find a bunch have Baltimore +5.5 and a bunch have San Fran at 4/6. You wouldn't want to be the bookmaker of any of them. Luckily for the poor old bookies, you could survey 1000 ice-creams and find they have Baltimore at 11/8 and 6/4 and San Fran at -3.5 and -4.

 Those lucky booky chaps.

[tikay]

What a weird Red Card that was!

[millidonk]

What a weird Red Card that was!

Madness. Queue the lawsuit.

[BigAdz]

I am sure this has crossed the mind of everyone on here, but in the simplest terms possible are we not looking at the following scenario

EG We backed SF at 7-1 . We can now get our stake back and have a freeroll at about 6.4-1.

Would that have been a happy outcome at the time of placing the bet?

I am sure there are several of the Elders sat shaking their head as they read this. I apologise for my ice cream ways.

[BigAdz]

What a weird Red Card that was!

Classic. Little fat ball boy falls on the ball and Hazard kicks him in the ribs, Ballboy acts like a small welsh Drogba, and Hazard gets the red.lol

[Tal]

What a weird Red Card that was!

Classic. Little fat ball boy falls on the ball and Hazard kicks him in the ribs, Ballboy acts like a small welsh Drogba, and Hazard gets the red. Kid and family get free tickets and signed shirts in the post.

FYP

[horseplayer]

amazing a lot of people seem to think a red was harsh

try kicking a minor in the street even gently i am sure you will soon get a visit (and rightly so)

[TightEnd]

the best bit was when he gesticulated to Foy and shouted "ref"!

check out @charliem0rgan on twitter...4 hours ago he was talking about being the best ballboy timewaster!

Hazard obv a red, and the ball boy obv an idiot too