Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Daily Summary, as @ 1125, Wednesday January 30th                            

PROFIT on Month = £122.85

Unsettled Bets  - £1,160.00


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc#gid=18

[Ant040689]

nelsen will be a tough act to replace at qpr

I say they buy back Peter Ramage from Palace. I think he is too good for the Championship, to the point where he is letting games slip away with suspect performances.

This often happens with geniuses. They need adequate stimuli.

Provide it please QPR. Please.

[DungBeetle]

"One of those situations where, if they go into administration, 5.4 is a monster, but if not, we still have a price that is fine. "

I assume it is settled on Birmingham's final league position as opposed to "league position as determined by points won on the field of play"?

For the spread firms points deductions do not count - I imagine it is different for fixed odds but worth checking.

[tikay]

Daily Report as @ 1145, Wednesday January 30th

A loss of just £6.25 yesterday, but the Bet, even though we got restricted, was irresistible.

We missed some "certainties" which lost, too, so that's good. Games like Bristol Rovers Watford, & Stoke v Wigan often have "Team A have won 9 fron 10 & score freely, Team B have lost x in a row & barely score".

And they win more often that not, but not enough to make an overall profit, as eveything is priced in.

Meanwhile, we have got some nice ante-post positions building up.

We got on Cheltenham to beat Torquay on Saturday @ 21/20, & it is now odds on in most spots.

We had that Rugby Union MAX on Scotland (+16), the line has already moved to +15.

We have a Mini- Banzai on Galatasaray in the CL @ 250/1, now generally 125/1.

£30 @ 5/6 on a Destiny's Child novelty bet soon got bet off the boards, & is now 2/9. 

£40 @ Evens Ravens to score Longest Field Goal is now 4/6 or 8/11 best.

In the Superbowl outright, the line is solid at 3.5 points, only Boyles go 4.

Sunday should be quite a day, & we will summarise all our positions before the game so we know where we are.

Saturday will be big, too, as we have a rare MAX.

February will start with a bang, one way or another, but we need to finish January, & hopefully with a bit of profit.

[TightEnd]

Should the thread not transact the Baltimore hedge, and guarantee a profit all ways up, while +4 is still available?

[Tal]

"One of those situations where, if they go into administration, 5.4 is a monster, but if not, we still have a price that is fine. "

I assume it is settled on Birmingham's final league position as opposed to "league position as determined by points won on the field of play"?

For the spread firms points deductions do not count - I imagine it is different for fixed odds but worth checking.

Er...they do that??!

So a team could finish above the relegation zone and still pay out on relegation?

Might want to check that, Tikay...

[tikay]

Should the thread not transact the Baltimore hedge, and guarantee a profit all ways up, while +4 is still available?

Probably, Rich. To be honest, I don't know what to do for the best really.

If folks want to offer up some suggestions, including amounts, I'd be grateful.

I don't mind iif we sort of cut it down the middle, & earn the same both ways, (with a possible "middle" bonus), or just save the stake, plus a bit.

If only I were hung like Dave Jones. 

[horseplayer]

i am to tired to talk about hedging/greening again

however i will share this i found last night

http://t.co/Jd9aJ9Qg

lovely stuff

[hummuspie]

Not my debut Tikay, posted a winning tip last season but nonetheless lets do a win!

You did, I had to check back to find it - you gave us Swindon, away to Barnet, in April, which won @ 17/20, & we had £50 on.

So you were 1 from 1. Nice.

Post more please, I thought that bet last night was incredible value. The corner count at half-time was 0-0, & Stoke seemed to be well in charge, so 8/5, Stoke most corners, looked a steal.

Amazingly, after 90 minutes, & 4 goals, the Corner count was exactly ONE, which went to Wigan.

Luckily, Bet365 cut me back from my requested £25 to £6.25, so they saved us a few bob there.

I think we were very unlucky, especially after Wigan scored the equaliser, would have thought Stoke would have tried to push on relentlessly as normal at the Britannia.

I think there was a point midway through where a corner should have been given but ref gave the goal kick.

Will defo post any more that I see as value

[bobby1]

Should the thread not transact the Baltimore hedge, and guarantee a profit all ways up, while +4 is still available?

If only I were hung like Dave Jones. 

Pics or it isn't true 

[tikay]

"One of those situations where, if they go into administration, 5.4 is a monster, but if not, we still have a price that is fine. "

I assume it is settled on Birmingham's final league position as opposed to "league position as determined by points won on the field of play"?

For the spread firms points deductions do not count - I imagine it is different for fixed odds but worth checking.

Er...they do that??!

So a team could finish above the relegation zone and still pay out on relegation?

Might want to check that, Tikay...

Bit late now......

Not sure if this covers it, but this is all I could find.....


◦If a team is disqualified, thrown out or otherwise removed from a league, one of the following will apply:
■If this happens before the relevant season has started, all bets on all affected markets will be void (except for those on markets which have been unconditionally determined);
■If this happens after the relevant season has started, all affected markets will stand and the team will be deemed to be relegated and all bets on that team will be settled accordingly in all relevant markets (assuming, of course, that it is not subsequently reinstated before the end of the season).

[Tal]

^

That seems OK. It says "relegated", so if they are relegated, that should be fine.

[TightEnd]

Should the thread not transact the Baltimore hedge, and guarantee a profit all ways up, while +4 is still available?

Probably, Rich. To be honest, I don't know what to do for the best really.

If folks want to offer up some suggestions, including amounts, I'd be grateful.

I don't mind iif we sort of cut it down the middle, & earn the same both ways, (with a possible "middle" bonus), or just save the stake, plus a bit.

If only I were hung like Dave Jones.  

current

SF Win = £1600

Baltimore win  = -£250


£500 on Baltimore+4 Boyles 10/11

1 SF Win profit is £1600-£500=£1100

2 SF win but by less than 4 profit is £1600 + £454 = £2054

3 Baltimore win profit is £454-£250 = £204


you are funking for 2, pleased with 1, settle for 3

you are still weighted towards the 49ers..



change £500 to £750 if you want to make it +£850 option 1 +£2280 option2 +£430 option 3

(check the figures!)

[tikay]

Thanks Rich.

Off for a dither & appendage inspection.

[Tal]

For cardiac and bowel purposes, funk for a 10 point SF lead and a consolation TD with 20 seconds left.

3 hours of neck and neck could be quite dangerous!