Tips for Tikay

[DungBeetle]

"One of those situations where, if they go into administration, 5.4 is a monster, but if not, we still have a price that is fine. "

I assume it is settled on Birmingham's final league position as opposed to "league position as determined by points won on the field of play"?

For the spread firms points deductions do not count - I imagine it is different for fixed odds but worth checking.

Er...they do that??!

So a team could finish above the relegation zone and still pay out on relegation?

Might want to check that, Tikay...

I think it will be different for fixed odds as you are betting on "to be relegated", but if you sell points of a team on the spreads and they are docked points, the effect of the docked points does not count.

[Ant040689]

"One of those situations where, if they go into administration, 5.4 is a monster, but if not, we still have a price that is fine. "

I assume it is settled on Birmingham's final league position as opposed to "league position as determined by points won on the field of play"?

For the spread firms points deductions do not count - I imagine it is different for fixed odds but worth checking.

Er...they do that??!

So a team could finish above the relegation zone and still pay out on relegation?

Might want to check that, Tikay...

I think it will be different for fixed odds as you are betting on "to be relegated", but if you sell points of a team on the spreads and they are docked points, the effect of the docked points does not count.

So signing up with 888 and taking 5.5 may be the best bet? I have gone with them and grateful for the tip, regardless of what happens, ty Tal

[Tal]

"One of those situations where, if they go into administration, 5.4 is a monster, but if not, we still have a price that is fine. "

I assume it is settled on Birmingham's final league position as opposed to "league position as determined by points won on the field of play"?

For the spread firms points deductions do not count - I imagine it is different for fixed odds but worth checking.

Er...they do that??!

So a team could finish above the relegation zone and still pay out on relegation?

Might want to check that, Tikay...

I think it will be different for fixed odds as you are betting on "to be relegated", but if you sell points of a team on the spreads and they are docked points, the effect of the docked points does not count.

That makes sense tbf. You're betting on pitch performances.

I'll breathe out now, if that's OK?

[typhoon13]

Should the thread not transact the Baltimore hedge, and guarantee a profit all ways up, while +4 is still available?

Wise sir.

You don't go bust taking profits.

I would just like to say as an innocent bystander that i have thoroughly enjoyed  following your ride  on this bet.

I wish you all good luck and sincerely hope it obliges.

[tikay]

Should the thread not transact the Baltimore hedge, and guarantee a profit all ways up, while +4 is still available?

Wise sir.

You don't go bust taking profits.

I would just like to say as an innocent bystander that i have thoroughly enjoyed  following your ride  on this bet.

I wish you all good luck and sincerely hope it obliges.

Thanks Trev.

PS - "innocent"? Might be confusing you with someone else.

[TL900]

change £500 to £750 if you want to make it +£850 option 1 +£2280 option2 +£430 option 3

this imo.

[TightEnd]

really laughed hard at some of this: Wenger, Bent, Harry etc

[Bad Beat]

 This is not another Channing greening thread...

 Just saying...I think the line is going north. The money in Vegas (represents 1% of what is bet on the game but is influential) has started to come that way, obviously many recreationals come from California for the weekend and they back San Fran. Hills bought the Leroys and Cal Nevo businesses with sportsbooks in northern Nevada (Reno) and these books are trading the game at 5.5. Some places did put up 3 with the fav at 4/5 but now Pinnacle are 10/11 -3.5 49ers with the Ravens at evs +3.5. Betfair at 3.5 have San Fran a small favourite.

 With 5 being dead and 4 being less significant I still think 6 is possible but not likely and 3 as a general consensus number is impossible.

 If you wait you may get 5.5, you'll prob get 5 (dead number) but you'll almost certainly get 4.5. You have a longshot chance to get 6.

 May as well wait. Betfair will have a multitude of different numbers, (if they ever go up with the markets...HELLO!!!COMPLACENT SPORTS EXCHANGE...MAJOR EVENT HAPPENING, how about player specials, MVP, team totals, alternate spreads, 1st TD scorer etc etc?), and you won't have to take 10/11, or if you do you'll get a better number.

[Tal]

Ah the curse of the Arkansas Gravediggers...

[tikay]

Thanks Neil. That gives me the excuse to dither a little longer.

Unlucky today, in the Aussie thing.

[horseplayer]

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/blog/_/name/tacticsandanalysis/id/786?cc=5739


a very good article on the turks and how they will likely line up

[Simon Galloway]

Dither a while longer.. I think I have found a free bet offer for stakes of $1k or more, a $200 subsequent free bet.  They are currently BAL +3.5, in a rush atm but will check out the small print later.

[Bad Beat]

 I think dithering is Ok on this one.

 Frustrating poker day.

 Annoying to be mostly card-dead, interspersed with totally getting screwed while the whole table seemed to be competing to play the worst.

 Hate to tell hands but one amused me. UTG raise to 5000 at 1200/2400 (TAG American woman), utg+1 playing 80k (Yank, not terrible, but not great) call, total loon utg+3 call from 160k, some random guy with 888 who had gone all-in two hands earlier and shown JJ exclaiming how he hates jacks etc make it 19k from 80k.

 Fold, fold, loon calls instantly. Flop AhJhQc...loon leads into 3-bettor for 13k, doesn't count it just grabs a random handful. 888 guy looks like hates life and calls (he has KcKh actually).

 Turn is . Loon thinks (not sure what about) and bets 16k...888 guy calls again.

 River ...loon now realises he has bet all his small chips and he only has 25k ones left. 888 guy has about 31k left. Loon throws in 25k but says 13k just as it hits the felt. 888 guy snaps with a set of kings and the loon starts moaning about how unlucky he was and shows Ad7c for sympathy.

 He called the 19k in this pot like it was 100 at 50/100 from a 30k stack and he was down to 30k when I left. While I was sittig there looking for 3-bet shove spots with my 20bbs for four hours he tossed in 40% of my stack with ad7c out of position without even a glance at the other guys stack. This event pays $1.6m to the winner and there were about 100 people left. This man was by no means the worst player I encountered during the event and several of the others are still in.
 
 Frustrating day but an unmissable event for anyone who has ever been tempted. No clue why anyone would choose the PCA if they could go to one of the two.

 Feel free to delete this if I'm cluttering up the thread with poker. I just struggled not to laugh at this hand, long before the cards were exposed.

[Graham C]

According to EA Sports, Ravens will win this 27-24.  OK, that's only a game but apparently they've predicted 7 out of the last 9 correctly
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/super-bowl-xlvii-ravens-defeat-415888

[The Camel]

I think dithering is Ok on this one.

 Frustrating poker day.

 Annoying to be mostly card-dead, interspersed with totally getting screwed while the whole table seemed to be competing to play the worst.

 Hate to tell hands but one amused me. UTG raise to 5000 at 1200/2400 (TAG American woman), utg+1 playing 80k (Yank, not terrible, but not great) call, total loon utg+3 call from 160k, some random guy with 888 who had gone all-in two hands earlier and shown JJ exclaiming how he hates jacks etc make it 19k from 80k.

 Fold, fold, loon calls instantly. Flop AhJhQc...loon leads into 3-bettor for 13k, doesn't count it just grabs a random handful. 888 guy looks like hates life and calls (he has KcKh actually).

 Turn is . Loon thinks (not sure what about) and bets 16k...888 guy calls again.

 River ...loon now realises he has bet all his small chips and he only has 25k ones left. 888 guy has about 31k left. Loon throws in 25k but says 13k just as it hits the felt. 888 guy snaps with a set of kings and the loon starts moaning about how unlucky he was and shows Ad7c for sympathy.

 He called the 19k in this pot like it was 100 at 50/100 from a 30k stack and he was down to 30k when I left. While I was sittig there looking for 3-bet shove spots with my 20bbs for four hours he tossed in 40% of my stack with ad7c out of position without even a glance at the other guys stack. This event pays $1.6m to the winner and there were about 100 people left. This man was by no means the worst player I encountered during the event and several of the others are still in.
 
 Frustrating day but an unmissable event for anyone who has ever been tempted. No clue why anyone would choose the PCA if they could go to one of the two.

 Feel free to delete this if I'm cluttering up the thread with poker. I just struggled not to laugh at this hand, long before the cards were exposed.

Reminds m of my favourite hand while I was there.

Level 2.

Someone opens for 250 and gets two callers.

Flop 832.

All three of them get all their chips in (30kish)

Original raiser has 88. Other two both have AA!

They leave the table arguing why one or other didn't 3,4,5,6 or 7 bet preflop!