Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Thanks for that Tal. Interesting last para:

 “The [Green Bay] Packers got in trouble because they double-teamed him in man concepts and Kaepernick ran,” said Greg Cosell of NFL Films. “So you have to decide, how are you going to deal with Crabtree if you’re the Ravens? He also lines up all over the formation, so he’ll line up outside. He’ll line up in the slot. They don’t move people around. Whoever is on him is going to be on him. But he’s a tough cover.”

 Obviously Lord Colin got to run a lot against the Packers because they focussed in other areas. The Falcons put their efforts into stopping that. The number for Kaepernick rushing yards is pretty volatile. I've seen a 41.5 and a 51.5.

 Where do people see that one?

I just wrote a long post and my computer crashed and I lost it all.

In brief Baltimore played one read option qb team this season - the Skins.

Griffin had < 40 yards on 7 carries which suggested the OLB respected the qb by staying in position until he was sure the rb had the ball. This led to Afred Morris having a big day 140 yards.

I think Kaep > Griffin running with the ball, but Gore < Morris.

If Kaep does get past the line of scrimmage I think he could have a huge day, because you'd fancy him to beat Lewis and Reed in thee open field.

So my hunch is the OLB's won't collapse the line of scrimmage and stay in station, which will mean most of the read option plays will be handed off to Gore and Kaep will only get rushing yards on traditional scrambles (he had only one read option rush v Atlanta for 1 yard)

I would play under 51.5 but without much confidence.

[aaron1867]

Earlier in this thread people are mentioning about Birmingham about their finances, but here is a complete NAP for you, not a brilliant price.

Jack Butland is 4/6 to move to Stoke with SkyBet, however I do realise Fred can't get on with SkyBet.

He rejected Chelsea as he didn't want to be possibly 3rd choice & definitely won't be first choice, but more of an opportunity to be number one at Stoke after the season has finished. As mentioned Birmingham are struggling for money and I actually think they will try their best to push this through to raise some funds, so I am pretty sure he will to Stoke for all the reasons mentioned.

4/6 will not be around long & another bookmaker has already suspended this market.

[redarmi]

If the price was 4/6 to leave Birmingham I would agree but he has to go to Stoke.....surely a decent chance another club comes in for him?

[aaron1867]

If the price was 4/6 to leave Birmingham I would agree but he has to go to Stoke.....surely a decent chance another club comes in for him?

Both Liverpool & Chelsea are priced at sevens & I just can't see Liverpool wanting him with already 2 decent enough keepers there and no chance of number 1 spot for some time yet & can't see him changing mind over Chelsea.

Stoke will offer him some sort of chance of a number one spot in the very near future.

Birmingham haven't sold nowhere near enough players in the market, they still have £60k/week Nigic & I don't think Burke went did he? So they really do need to recoup somewhere & it seems most definitely they are going to force a move on him. It wasn't long ago they was asking for silly money, but the likelyhood he will go for £2.5m.

No idea if value though (in fact it probably isn't), have to watch market for this & unfortunately not ideal. If price drifts would avoid, but if the price does actually get smaller then I assume it will be very very short odds before you know it, 1/8 stuff. 

[The Camel]

If the price was 4/6 to leave Birmingham I would agree but he has to go to Stoke.....surely a decent chance another club comes in for him?

Both Liverpool & Chelsea are priced at sevens & I just can't see Liverpool wanting him with already 2 decent enough keepers there and no chance of number 1 spot for some time yet & can't see him changing mind over Chelsea.

Stoke will offer him some sort of chance of a number one spot in the very near future.

Birmingham haven't sold nowhere near enough players in the market, they still have £60k/week Nigic & I don't think Burke went did he? So they really do need to recoup somewhere & it seems most definitely they are going to force a move on him. It wasn't long ago they was asking for silly money, but the likelyhood he will go for £2.5m.

No idea if value though (in fact it probably isn't), have to watch market for this & unfortunately not ideal. If price drifts would avoid, but if the price does actually get smaller then I assume it will be very very short odds before you know it, 1/8 stuff. 

Unless you have rock solid inside info, don't even bother looking at skybets transfer odds.

They are beyond awful.

[Spudy]

Heres one for you!

Napoli to win Serie A at a stand out 11/2 with Stan James, represents big value to me with Juventus stuttering badly. Napoli also face Juventus at home in a crucial "6 pointer" and are only 3 points behind Juve. I would price Napoli about 7/2 to win Serie A as things stand.

Recommended bet Napoli to win Serie A 50 quid at 11/2.

Good luck!

[Bad Beat]

 Somebody looking to have £3000 at 4.7 on Betfair so probably a great bet without even thinking about anything else. Sad to see how far Stan James has fallen from once being a pioneer in bookmaking. I don't think I know a single person that could get £50 on this. Definitely wouldn't put you off though.

[tikay]

Heres one for you!

Napoli to win Serie A at a stand out 11/2 with Stan James, represents big value to me with Juventus stuttering badly. Napoli also face Juventus at home in a crucial "6 pointer" and are only 3 points behind Juve. I would price Napoli about 7/2 to win Serie A as things stand.

Recommended bet Napoli to win Serie A 50 quid at 11/2.

Good luck!

Good morning spudy.

Fred no longer has a Stan James account, but Ladbrokes still offer 5/1.

I've decided to have £20 worth for now, pending what the big boys say when they get put of bed, early this afternoon. 

"horseplayer" follows these Leagues very closely, so I hope he may have a view.

If everyone thinks the bet is good value, we will have the other £30 later today.

Thanks bud.

We have £20 @ 5/1, Ladbrokes, Napoli to win Serie A.

ON

Selection5/1 - Napoli

EventSerie A 2012/13 Italian

MarketLeague winner
 
Your bets (1)
 Single - Napoli
1 line at £20.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £20.00
Potential Return: £120.00
Time: 31/01/13 07:24
Receipt No: O/142640973/0000247

[tikay]

Just keen to get views:

 In the bad old days pre Colin K the primary wide receiver for the 49ers was Vernon Davis. Since  Sir Colin came in the receiver of choice has been Michael Crabtree,

 Outside of those two Randy Moss gets a few balls aimed in his direction and Delaney Walker has been a lot more popular, also since came in.

 Some guys I consider shrewd are on Walker over 20.5 and are looking to play Walker 1st TD.

 Does anyone think the Ravens will be expecting Crabtree to be the man and therefore Davis may start to get the service he was getting in the days before or will the switch from Davis continue?

 On the Ravens rushing front...how balanced will be the division of hand-offs between Pierce, Rice and Leach?

Not a  in sight.

Result.

[tikay]

I'm following this Superbowl stuff with more fascination than insight, but if you make a decision on Walker, over 20.5, let me know please, my dabbler is poised.

[Tal]

[tikay]

Big point for Reading that.
Interesting

Readin 1/2

Villa and QPR 8/13

Wigan 11/8

Southampton 7/4

With QPR 4 points adrift at the bottom, some recovery is built into their price vis a vis Reading

Extraordinary. That is twice recently that they have made remarkable comebacks in the dying minutes.

They are either very lucky, or, more likely, have great strength of character & backbone.

They are a credit to their Manager & coaching staff.

[Snowball]

Id hold fire on the Napoli bet as Juve are trying to sign another striker today.
I also expect Juve to go on a run as they welcome back Pirlo and Asmosah.
They haven't had  many breaks the past few weeks and now they are out the Cup all focus will be on Seria A and the Champions League.Tho they will be out of the CL in a couple of weeks to

[tikay]

Id hold fire on the Napoli bet as Juve are trying to sign another striker today.
I also expect Juve to go on a run as they welcome back Pirlo and Asmosah.
They haven't had  many breaks the past few weeks and now they are out the Cup all focus will be on Seria A and the Champions League.Tho they will be out of the CL in a couple of weeks to

Whoops.

Thanks Snowy.

Well we have had a Mini-Banzai for £20, & I wanted to give a warm Fred welcome to Spudy, but if the bet is not value, we'll just sit with the £20, & you never know, we might get a cheap sweat.

[Tal]

Just had a text to say he's seen an interview with 'Arry leaning out of a car window.

Transfer Deadline Day has officially begun