Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Thanks for the extra feedback from plenners & Mondy on the Newcastle bet.

I'll have a major dither now.

Gotta go, things to do, places to see, photos to take, life to lead, balance & all that.

Back on tonight, & good luck everybody with today's football bets.

[tikay]

Must be some value in Newcastle to finish top four, currently 11.5 with betfair. Arsenal and Spurs are 2points clear with a game in hand and Chelsea are 3 behind with a game in hand.
    Newcastle have 3 very winnable games coming next, Bolton (H) Stoke (H) and Wigan (A) with a good chance of being in the top four after these games, we then have 3 tough games Chelsea (A) Man City (H) and Everton (A) if Newcastle can pick up anything against Chelski or Citeh then I think it could be down to the final game of the season
   Newcastle are in great form winning their last 4, have 2 great strikers in Ba and Cisse and have a probably the best team spirit in the league, Arsenal too are playing well but lost there last game against QPR, but Spurs and Chelski have been very inconsistent of late.
   Its basically a four horse race with 2 winners, things have to go well for Newcastle but surely 11.5 is worth a "punt" (pretty much 10/1 after comm.)

   Must be worth a cheeky score

Thanks, wondered when you'd give us a bet, as I note you read the thread a lot!

I'll have a good look at that later today, thanks.

Newcastle seem to polarise opinions, violently one way or the other, for some reason. Some excellent judges seem to think they are outperforming, others not so much.

I'll ask someone with an independent view, perhaps. Where are you, Pleno?

   There is no doubt we have been performing above expectations, we were after 5 games, also after 10 games and now after 32 games we're still over achieving,  think its time to admit Newcastle are genuine contenders for a CL spot.

   The truth is it will still be very tough to get a CL spot, but 11.5 has got to be too big for a 4 horse race with 2 winners, surely

EDIT: just checked the bet again now down to 5.4

Best price is now 5/4? In which case, your tip, by definition, was a cracker, & I missed it, ugh. At 5.4, not so much, I think you'd agree.

PS - I have no view on whether they are performing above or under expectation, just mentioning that is what many wise judges say. Opinion, the essence of everything in betting!

[mondatoo]

"City at home who will most likely have a must win game"

I'd be suprised if the title isn't over by then so I don't think there'll be any pressure on them, whether that'll be a negative or positive for us I don't no.

"everton away  although this looks a tough game, mot likely everton will have nothing to play for and our team spirit can come through."

Decent chance Everton could be battling with Liverpool for position so this could be a massive game for them also, have they ever finished ahead of Liverpool in the Premiership ?

[mondatoo]

LOL, oh well...

[geordieneil]

Mackems v Spurs was a decent result for Newcastle, 9/1 still available with betfred and bodog

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/premier-league/top-4-finish

As stated I think it will be tough, but I doubted we would finish in the top half at the beginning of the season.

[TightEnd]

Hi Tikay,

I read earlier in this thread that you were opposed to doing multiple bets as you see the value in betting singles only.  Although this probably reduces variance I would also think that you were missing out some value in the long term.  I am a novice at this gambling lark but I read lots and study lots and slowly I am getting there and believe i have found a few decent judges to follow who often advocate Singles/Doubles on football with the occasional treble.  

Today from those that I follow.  One bet really sticks out for me.

Over 2.5 goal double in Southampton v Portsmouth and Coventry v Peterborough.  

In the first game taking the combined goals scored and conceded by Southampton on average there are 3 goals in each game they have played this season and by looking at the Portsmouth stats there record shows an average of 2.25 goals per game.   Both teams need a result for different reasons so will both be going at it hard.  Southampton have been overtaken at the top by Reading and West Ham are only 3 points behind in 3rd.   At the other end of the league Portsmouth who have started to get some decent results of late are only 5 points from safety and will be fighting all the way given some of the form of the other teams down there.  Infact had it not been for a 10 point deduction they would most likely be safe.

In the second game Coventry need points to secure survival in the championship and although the average number of goals in their games is generally quite low I am expecting that they will come under heavy pressure from Peterborough today who on average have 3 goals in each match they have played.   I expect that if Coventry are to win this game they are going to have to score a minimum of 2 goals as I don't see Peterborough not scoring here.  

The double should price around the 3.0 or 3.1 mark.  

Good luck.  

Both these landed, the Coventry one before half time. Very well played.

[Silo Graham]

Nice with the footy overs. Was going to have the cov game as a single but it was already 0-1.

[tikay]

Thoughts on villa @ 6/1 vs liverpool ?

You on, Guy? Fingers crossed for you!

[booder]

Thoughts on villa @ 6/1 vs liverpool ?

You on, Guy? Fingers crossed for you!

wp Teeks

[tikay]

Thoughts on villa @ 6/1 vs liverpool ?

You on, Guy? Fingers crossed for you!

Whoops.

[tikay]

Thoughts on villa @ 6/1 vs liverpool ?

You on, Guy? Fingers crossed for you!

wp Teeks

Pretty neat timing, eh? It's a gift.

[TightEnd]

Awful footy afternoon for the thread. Last five minute goal binks please

[tikay]

Awful footy afternoon for the thread. Last five minute goal binks please

Tempted to mention that both Norwich and Wigan have equalised, and we are DNB........

[tikay]

Awful footy afternoon for the thread. Last five minute goal binks please

Tempted to mention that both Norwich and Wigan have equalised, and we are DNB........

Uncanny.

I'll stfu I think......

[tikay]

Think we ended £40 down on the afternoon.

Jenny is on fire! I would not have done the double at any price, but, had I been in time, would have done both as singles.

Well done eso, too.