Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

In the Championship tonight, a team that has not won for a month..out of form, lacking confidence and with key flair players not performing, also likely the top scorer misses the game tonight, is at home to a side with a newish manager

The away side is picking up in form, and has a "marquee" £8m striker that since his transfer in August has scored 20 goals in 30 games

Before I oddschecked I priced it up as

Home Evens
Draw 5/2
Away 11/4

The actual prices are

Home 7/10
Draw 3
Away 9/2

To my mind the away team is a point and a half too long. Sadly the 9/2 is with Sky Bet and Stan James

The away team has only lost 4 of 16 away games all season, with nine draws

The correct course could be to lay the home team for a liability of £40 at 1.76 on Betfair

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/english/championship/leicester-v-blackburn/winner

I like a man who opposes his own Team, thanks Rich.

We have £53 @ 1.76, for a £40 Liability, Betfair, LAY Leicester.

ON

Lay Backer's
Odds Backer's
Stake Your
Liability Your
Payout 
Leicester 1.76 £53.00 £93.28 £40.28 
Ref: 25442666050 Bet placed: 10:19 26-Feb-13

[tikay]

Please be aware that I cannot action ANY recommends between 6pm this evening & 1am tomorrow, as I'm working tonight.

[tikay]

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[BigAdz]

Is that Ralph, cos not sure its MC?

[tikay]

Is that Ralph, cos not sure its MC?

Ralph, parachuteaments.

[Tal]

That's better.

[horseplayer]

here is a first

a 2pm kick off today and a bit of a flyer but hopefully an educated one

http://uk.soccerway.com/national/montenegro/first-league/20122013/regular-season/

is the league table

Sutjeska v FK Grbalj Radanovici is the game

As you can see sutjeska are top and have best home record in the league, however the away side at 3-1 with paddy power look to big.

Two people i respect on the minor leagues have told me that Sutjeska have  huge financial problems, players not paid and lots of the squad MAY not be playing today.

I have no knowledge of the league at all and if the home side do show up at full strength then the 3-1 is probably correct. There seems to be a lot of blue for the away side on oddschecker though so hopefully the weakened squad comes on show

Suggest £10 at 3-1 with paddy power

[tikay]

here is a first

a 2pm kick off today and a bit of a flyer but hopefully an educated one

http://uk.soccerway.com/national/montenegro/first-league/20122013/regular-season/

is the league table

Sutjeska v FK Grbalj Radanovici is the game

As you can see sutjeska are top and have best home record in the league, however the away side at 3-1 with paddy power look to big.

Two people i respect on the minor leagues have told me that Sutjeska have  huge financial problems, players not paid and lots of the squad MAY not be playing today.

I have no knowledge of the league at all and if the home side do show up at full strength then the 3-1 is probably correct. There seems to be a lot of blue for the away side on oddschecker though so hopefully the weakened squad comes on show

Suggest £10 at 3-1 with paddy power

A football match in Montenegro! Jeez, we do get around.

This bet sort of reminds me of that Conference (?) Team you put up last year, who were busto & only had 8 players or whatever.

Definitely worth risking a tenner, thank you.

We have £10 @ 3/1, Paddy Power, FK Grbalj Radanovici to beat Sutjeska.

Thanks horsey, & good luck all.

ON

Montenegran Premier League Sutjeska v FK Grbalj Radanovici
26-02-2013 12:00
Win-Draw-Win
FK Grbalj Radanovici @ 3/1
 
Your Bets Win
Single: FK Grbalj Radanovici @ 3/1
1 line at £10.00 per line
Total stake for this bet: £10.00
Potential returns: £40.00
No: O/23146337/0000270

 

[tikay]

Paddy Power seem to be a bit out of line on that game, too.....


http://www.oddschecker.com/football/other/montenegro/first-league/sutjeska-v-grbalj-radanovici/winner

[horseplayer]

i would not be anything like as confident with this as you can imagine i cant research the teams myself and when the teams are announced i will have no idea if they are weak or not

[rfgqqabc]

Wow, price gone.

[Tal]

Ronnie O'Sullivan will defend his world snooker title.

[horseplayer]

from twitter

higginsons cue didn't turn up , nor has Stevens . He's using selbys

[aaron1867]

There is quite a few tips for todays games and I can't see anything that is TFT material, but I have seen something that is a decent price and decent bet for the weekend.

Top (team) scorers in League One:

Bournemouth (57)
Swindon (56)
Yeovil (56)
Coventry (54)

Coventry are at home to Swindon in which is a crucial game for both. The odds on over 2.5 goals is best priced at 11/10 with Bet Victor. The bookies are all in and around that price, but I am confident that it will be odds on at the weekend.

Swindon do also let in more away (by 3), whilst Coventry let in the same (21) both home and away, so shows there is goals to be scored against them.

The negatives are that Coventry are a better away side and score more away than they do at home, but with this game being a game that if they lose any hopes of Play-Offs will be gone. Therefore expecting Coventry to be going for it and Swindon too.

Recc @ £50, think it will be 5/6 material at the weekend imo. I don't usually go to high stakes for TFT, but really like the bet.

[AndrewT]

When you think about it, the next Pope market is one to stay away from. A completely opaque process, with no guide to form, and nothing but baseless speculation and tea-leaves reading to form an opinion on. But a) that's no fun and b) Dazzler's excellent post has whetted the appetite.

So, Catholic Church - what a bind you are in. You're old and creaky and losing influence in your traditional markets. There is growth within you, but it's at the crazy extremes - Africans that want to burn homosexuals and suchlike. Which, given the 'stay away from lady bits' recruitment policy among your staff will cause a great deal of friction (and not the kind that happens in the showers at the seminary). Also, sadly, it seems that the Jimmy Savile fan club may have been sending newsletters to more parochial houses than was first thought.

You need to attract new priests, and two easy ways of expanding the selection pool are by letting in both ladies and lady-shaggers. For the past 20 years, staff who have been transferred in from FC Anglican have been allowed to grandfather in their existing skirt, mostly without fuss (many people are unaware of this, thinking there are no married Catholic priests) but opening it up to all and sundry will cause a palaver far greater than the women thing which is causing headaches for the C of E.

Also, your official status on gays is 'no'. But unofficially, you know that this makes up a huge proportion of your current staff. Change it and you drive away much of the growth in the Southern hemisphere.

These old theological questions are the ones that have been bubbling under for the Church for decades, but the clear and present danger is the paedophile scandal. rumour has it that the real reason Benedict quit is simply that the scale of how many priests had been at it both disgusted him and overwhelmed him to such a degree that he would rather just walk away than deal with it. The new guy is very much getting a hospital pass.

This causes a problem, as in a time of crisis, the next Pope really needs to be a tough guy, displaying strength, sorting all these nonces out, and reinforcing the traditional core support of the Church - reassure them that, fundamentally the Church is sound and will get through this. Continuing to soft-play the scandal, try and hush-it up and sweep it under the carpet is not an option any more.

To this end, I think that they'll decide that it's one step at a time, and that now is not the time for the Catholic Barack Obama. They'll go traditional, probably Italian, someone who can pick things up quickly, an insider, rather than an outsider.

Dazzler's pick of Sandri has a lot of appeal, but the negative for me is his age, he's only 63. As hilarious for Fred as it would be for the Pope to be younger than Tikay I just can't see them going for a kid right now.

The one for me to punt on is Gianfranco Ravasi (20/1 - Stan James and Betfred). He's 70, so a good age. He's very much an insider - current Vatican culture minister, and he led a recent retreat inside the Vatican where the bigwigs get together (at which he was vocally scathing about the divisions within the Vatican). This means he has shown backbone from a position where he would be able to follow through on his words. He has good media presence (been on TV and radio), which is increasingly important for a Pope. Potential negatives are than he could be seen as being a bit 'bookish' and being seen as close to Benedict would be a problem if there is a move to put distance between the new Pope and the old one (which I don't think will be too much of a problem as Benedict wasn't seen as a bad Pope and has said that he will be out of the game completely now).

He's not anti-evolution, and is pro-dialogue with other faiths and non-believers, so he can be portrayed as having modern proclivities, giving him time to put off making any decisions regarding the big, tough decisions (women priests, gays) until later.

In a market where being seen as a favourite is a negative, I like his price.

So recommend £20 on Gianfranco Ravasi (20/1 - Stan James and Betfred)