Tips for Tikay

[kpnuts]

There is a Mourinho next job market up somewhere

Man City was 100-30

Arsenal 16-1

PSG 12-5

were the ones I recall

The Man City price caught my attention. Mourinho free in the summer, Mancini could get sacked at any point

still there on 3six5
http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/jose-mourinho/next-job

[Tal]

We had a bad result with QPR at the weekend

They went from 1/7 for the drop to 1/3 with a win at Southampton

Four points behind safety

In the next five games, they have Wigan at home, Villa and Reading away. They do have a nasty finish with Arsenal/Newcastle and Liverpool last three games

We'll know if we are gonig to drag betting defeat from well within the jaws of victory in the next few games, I reckon




Could do with a Villa result tonight....

At the risk of inciting a medieval reaction...

Newcastle and Liverpool last two could be pretty decent games, as there's a decent chance neither will have anything to play for. You want to play the sides 8-15th in the table who are thinking about Magaluf.

However, funnily enough (and much as I don't like the Villa), I'd also quite like a home win tonight.

[tigger37]

@ Dave M. Is the placement service on a "no win no fee" basis?

I would like to add that I'm only asking this out of genuine curiosity as I rarely bet over £200 on a single event.

Yes, absolutely - no win, no fee.

Our work focuses on staying 'under the radar' obviously.  Feel free to mail for further info or catch me on facebook.

[AndrewT]

Tal, it must have taken everything within you to not make the very obvious joke with regard to teams with nothing to play for at the end of the season there.

[Tal]

Should qualify that by saying I imagine Liverpool will have already guaranteed a Europa spot or be out of contention (if there is just one spot on offer).

Loving the cricket stat, non-Bearders.

[BigAdz]

I would need a 100-1 winner to break even on next manager markets.

anything sub tens seems skinny.

[adnmdv]

Definitely agree with you if it was for new customers only Red. That would be a great price to pay to aquire new accounts. The trouble for Hills is that most people taking the offer are either existing accounts, many of whom will be arbers, some of whom will be dormant customers rembering their login-details or their account number. It's really hard to measure how much of that is good business. In the shops you might reckon that 50% of activity is just arbers.

 That was my idea on the rugby thing Keith. I thought it was genuis at the time. I think 5 people got on as none of the other hundred or so who rang knew anything about rugby.

 On all of these it's NRNB so if Dynaste goes for the other race you are Ok.

 It's obviously free money to bet all of these and arb and it may be long-term better ev to take them and keep them, if we assume that Betfair is always right.

 Having said all that, if there was no Betfair I wouldn't walk more than 300 yards to a shop to bet either of these two.

 Interesting that HF has remained very strong on Betfair all day considering how many arbers have got on.

Obviously you are correct but I think it is almost certainly a +EV move for Hills.  To be honest I am amazed more firms dont lead with price marketing like this as it is smart and cost effective.  Even things like it being mentioned on this thread have value for Hills and they also will no doubt get the opportunity to have that wanker Graham Sharpe on the TV next week saying how they laid HF to lose £100m in £50 bets.  I think the interesting thing is the last line in your post Neil.  Surely if there are so many arbers then HF should become very weak in the Betfair market today yet it isn't.  By my reading of the BF charts he has been layed for about £20k today all at 3.55/3.6.  Who has come out of the woodwork today wanting £20k on the horse?  Hills are the only people I can think of that might want to do that today......very weird as simple economics would suggest that the smart thing to do if you were an arber today would be to lay £2k of Hurrican Fly early then bet it back later when all the arbers are trying to lay the horse at any cost for their free bet.  Certainly would have more respect for someone that had actually thought that through than someone walking around 20 shops to get a grand at 3/1 with Hills.

Fair point - although we have a lot more than a grand on

The current betfair market is of course 'anti-post' yet Hills are NRNB, Hurricane will be a lot shorter in the 'day-of-race' market.

For the record, although I fully understand the view and arguments against arbers, we are an extremely well organised team and offer an excellent service to clients.

What I don't quite get is the ignorance of some pretty well thought of 'gamblers/punters' (two completely different sets of people imo) as to what today's arbing is about.

The views are quite prehistoric.  We operate in a market place and have an opinion on where markets may or may not go.  The complaint of "arbers spoiling it for the good guys' is not only dated, its pretty weak and coming from people who are surprisingly clueless about where professional arbers are today.

The enemies of the good guys in order.

1. Betfair
2. Arbers
3. Bookmakers

With healthy gaps between them.

I was a great deal more profitable punter pre Betfair, despite being a lot less clued up.

And I never had an account closed or restricted.

Maybe because that was over 10 years ago and things have moved on, markets have presumably gotten more efficient and that's not all down to Betfair or arbers, that's also going to be due to more smart people entering the market. If you're not keeping up you're being left behind. That post just seemed like it was moaning that it's not as easy as it was 10 years ago and just blaming BF/arbers/bookmakers for that. Everyone's in it for themselves, I wouldn't blame Betfair for making a business or arbers for making money for themselves.

This anti-arber sentiment seems pretty odd to me, particularly the angle that people are looking at it from - that these guys are 'filthy' because for some reason their methods of making money aren't as upstanding as the regular gambler. The irony of a professional gambler calling someone else's profession filthy is massive!

[Tal]

Tal, it must have taken everything within you to not make the very obvious joke with regard to teams with nothing to play for at the end of the season there.

 

But...maybe

[TightEnd]

Villa are 7-1 to win at home with Spoilsports

Not a recommendation, but wow


For that 7-1 team, Benteke is FGS 8-1

One or the other looks incongruous, not quite mutually exclusive but still

[Tal]

Villa are 7-1 to win at home with Spoilsports

Not a recommendation, but wow


For that 7-1 team, Benteke is FGS 8-1

One or the other looks incongruous, not quite mutually exclusive but still

Villa are so leaky, scoring first barely changes their chances of winning the game, I suppose.

Thinking aloud, here...

[tigger37]

Yikes, there's a 'filthy' on the thread!

Tbh, I have no problem with arbers David, but isn't it ultimately a bit of a soulless pursuit? Do many people mistake you for Rob Garfield?

Soulless - if we were a team of robots clicking "buy at 8/1, sell at 7.4/1" - that would be but that's not who WE are at all.

Rob - no

[Chompy]

Yikes, there's a 'filthy' on the thread!

Tbh, I have no problem with arbers David, but isn't it ultimately a bit of a soulless pursuit? Do many people mistake you for Rob Garfield?

Anyway chomps can you start doing some footy research please, I need some more random player to score bets, they'll win even if they don't you know.

Only just got round to looking and...

Daniel Swanson has taken over Boydy's spot on the left and was very unlucky not to bang one in at Blackburm. He's had a light season and also looked very sharp when coming on in the previous match.

I'd be very surprised if he doesn't start and the 7/1, 8/1 any time layers are wrong. Baldfred go 3/1.

25/1 to score first is also crazy.

Rec £10 @ 8/1 to score any time and £5 @ 25/1 to score first.

[tikay]

Yikes, there's a 'filthy' on the thread!

Tbh, I have no problem with arbers David, but isn't it ultimately a bit of a soulless pursuit? Do many people mistake you for Rob Garfield?

Anyway chomps can you start doing some footy research please, I need some more random player to score bets, they'll win even if they don't you know.

Only just got round to looking and...

Daniel Swanson has taken over Boydy's spot on the left and was very unlucky not to bang one in at Blackburm. He's had a light season and also looked very sharp when coming on in the previous match.

I'd be very surprised if he doesn't start and the 7/1, 8/1 any time layers are wrong. Baldfred go 3/1.

25/1 to score first is also crazy.

Rec £10 @ 8/1 to score any time and £5 @ 25/1 to score first.

When is that game Mr W?

[tikay]

Strike that - tomorrow I assume, Peterborough v Charlton?

[KarmaDope]

Should qualify that by saying I imagine Liverpool will have already guaranteed a Europa spot or be out of contention (if there is just one spot on offer).

Loving the cricket stat, non-Bearders.

There may be more than one spot.

Currently, it is Arsenal 5th on 47pts, Everton 6th on 45pts, Liverpool 7th on 42pts and Swansea 8th on 40pts.

Looking at the fixtures, Arsenal have a shockingly easy run in - their only big game being Man Utd at home but they do have to go to Swansea & West Brom and entertain Everton. They also have Reading/QPR/Wigan/Newcastle/Norwich and Fulham - so I guess they will get 21pts.

Everton have to go to Spurs, Arsenal, Chelsea AND Liverpool. They also host Man City. At best I can see them getting 15-17pts as they also have to play Stoke and West Ham, AND they are still in the FA Cup.

Liverpool have to play Everton, Chelsea and Tottenham. Even as a Liverpool fan, I can see us getting 3 pts max here. The rest of our games are against bottom 10 teams (Newcastle, Villa, Reading, QPR, West Ham, and Southampton), oh and Fulham who are 10th. I honestly think we can get 24pts here.

Swansea are 8th but they have already qualified for Europe.

Assuming Manchester United win the FA Cup (and I think the winner comes from the Chelsea/Utd match) then 6th will get a spot in Europe. This could be the scene for the biggest Merseyside Derby on 4th May in quite some time.

As this is TfT, if anyone can find a market for Liverpool to qualify for Europe - go for it.