Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

The ATP Indian Wells Event is underway

http://www.oddschecker.com/tennis/atp-indian-wells/mens-bnp-paribas-open/winner

The draw can be seen via

http://www.bnpparibasopen.com/Scores/Draws.aspx

I read an article last night that pointed out that Murray and Djokovic were in the same half, seeded 1 and 3

Djokovic is 13-0 is Tour matches this year

Murray moves to world number 2 if he finals and Federer doesn't reach the semis


However, My attention is drawn to the other side of the draw, to see if we can see who might win that (minus Murray/Djokovic) and thus, with e/w being half the odds to make the final, provide some value

Federer this year is 10-3

His losses. Murray in the Australian semi,Benneteau in the Rotterdam Quarters. Berdych in the Dubai semis having lost after 3 match points

He is 11/2 to win this

So nearly 11/4 to win his half

His run to the final would be, in theory

Istomin
Benneteau
Wawrinka/Isner
Nadal
Ferrer/Berdych

Nadal is coming back from injury of course, and has won two minor events last out but as recently as 17 Feb withdrew from an event concerned about over-using the repaired knee.

With the betting odds skewed in this half by the two favourites being in the other, 11/2 e/w Federer looks reasonable to me

Recommend £15 e/w Federer to win the BNP Paribas/Indian Wells 11/2

The focus is the each/way part which would, if he wins his half, make the overall proposition profitable,  and a shot to nothing should he final

Tennis?

I wish I knew how your mind worked Rich, but you come up with some really interesting stuff.

We have £15 EW @ 11/2 (half odds, 1,2), William Hill, Federer to win BNP Paridas/ATP Indian Wells.

ON


07 Mar 2013 - BNP Paribas Open - ATP Indian Wells - Tournament Winner

Roger Federer @ 11/2  EW @ 1/2 1-2

Stake : £30.00 (£15.00 x 2)
Estimated Returns : £153.75Transaction Reference:O/0457483/0000291/F

[Chompy]

haha, lets hope that Fred is always right, how did the Chelters preview go last night?

Could have been bettter....

As ever with Radio & TV, there is never enough time to do justice to the subject at hand. We tried to review 8 races I think, had nice ATR clips & so on, but there was not really time to do the stuff I had wanted to do.

I did not exactly shine, but if we had longer, I'd have probably made an even bigger fool of myself.

Enjoyed the change though.

I wanted to tell a few Golden Miller & Dorothy Paget tales, & somehow squeezed them in later. Miss Paget, & Golden Miller, were both quite remarkable. I really could write a book on the pair of them.

I think I was right in saying that Golden Miller was the only horse ever to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Grand National in the same season. Nobody disputed it, so I'm counting that one.

Hold up...whoa! Back up there just a second. You were on a Cheltenham preview panel? Where can I see this please?

[tikay]

haha, lets hope that Fred is always right, how did the Chelters preview go last night?

Could have been bettter....

As ever with Radio & TV, there is never enough time to do justice to the subject at hand. We tried to review 8 races I think, had nice ATR clips & so on, but there was not really time to do the stuff I had wanted to do.

I did not exactly shine, but if we had longer, I'd have probably made an even bigger fool of myself.

Enjoyed the change though.

I wanted to tell a few Golden Miller & Dorothy Paget tales, & somehow squeezed them in later. Miss Paget, & Golden Miller, were both quite remarkable. I really could write a book on the pair of them.

I think I was right in saying that Golden Miller was the only horse ever to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Grand National in the same season. Nobody disputed it, so I'm counting that one.

Hold up...whoa! Back up there just a second. You were on a Cheltenham preview panel? Where can I see this please?

Yup. You missed me giving forth for an hour on the merits of all the fancied horses in the Cheltenham Feature races, with incredible anecdotal background stuff. "A lot of Irish people come to Cheltenham", "J P McManus likes a bet" & other such gems. Epic stuff, unmissable. Prices were plunging as I spoke, I spoke with much authority & that sort of stuff. I also enquired knowingly as to why Hurricane Fly flopped last year, & things like that.

I must just be the next McCririck.

It will be repeatedly repeated, starting tomorrow.

Joking aside, we had a bunch of clips from ATR, & they worked quite well.

 

[Tal]

It was pretty much nothing like this.

[Chompy]

They've all made the same mistake again with Swanson v Ipswich on Saturday.

Man of the match last night and, once he's fully fit, he is gonna be something very decent.

Same again (bets placed this time ta):

£10 Swanson to score any time, 8/1 Hills

£5 Swanson to score first, 25/1 Hills

[horseplayer]

they are taking on chompy again

they are foolish

[atdc21]

Hi everyone, think im with BIGADZ re the just betting horses because they are bigger scenario, but as Tikay says the bets do get 'vetted' before just being put on, very difficult, BUT i do think its a nice 'scam' by the bookies into getting people to back a horse they wouldnt  normally, (by thinking wow this price is good) and then when they have them on phone restricting them and offering normal odds, i wonder how many people still have the extra bit at the normal odds>? they cant all be as disciplined as 'fred'.
anyway its fooook all to do with me but just thought would add my feelings, good luck.

[Ant040689]

They've all made the same mistake again with Swanson v Ipswich on Saturday.

Man of the match last night and, once he's fully fit, he is gonna be something very decent.

Same again (bets placed this time ta):

£10 Swanson to score any time, 8/1 Hills

£5 Swanson to score first, 25/1 Hills

Much prefer to back this man to score against Ipswich. Any excuse to plus Parks and Rec.

[adnmdv]

Weird how this thread encourages 'banzais' at long odds which are on average gonna be losing tons of money, but backing bets like this Long Run offer, where you're getting free EV, is questioned.

[Ant040689]

On Chompy btw, tyty.

[hector62]

Afternoon Mr T.

If the requirement for a cricket test average was 15 completed innings then Mr Pujaras average of 67.8 would be the 2nd highest of all time, only 32 behind the leader. Still he has plenty of time to catch him up. I am already looking forward to seeing how he does in seam bowling friendly countries.

10 bookies are now pricing up the top little batter market with 6 of them odds on. Corals have him at 5/4 which is a bit OOL but not worth a top up, but no doubt we will have all backed worse 5/4 shots in our time.

[tikay]

Afternoon Mr T.

If the requirement for a cricket test average was 15 completed innings then Mr Pujaras average of 67.8 would be the 2nd highest of all time, only 32 behind the leader. Still he has plenty of time to catch him up. I am already looking forward to seeing how he does in seam bowling friendly countries.

10 bookies are now pricing up the top little batter market with 6 of them odds on. Corals have him at 5/4 which is a bit OOL but not worth a top up, but no doubt we will have all backed worse 5/4 shots in our time.

Afternoon h.

Nobody will ever catch Bradman, but he averaged way under 100. 99.94 I gather......! He must have been a bit miffed it went to decimal places.

Really looking forward to some Pujara fun, though we'll never again get the same value.

Find us another star in the making, we've had 3G, Dr Noh, Pujara, now we need another.

Hope you are all set for the 6N this weekend?

[Bad Beat]

 Here's one you won't hear too often...

 I 100% agree with adnmdv

 It's not often when we are sports betting that we can know with absolute certainty that we are having a value bet. That is the beauty of sports betting. It's all about opinions.

 The ante post markets on the Cheltenham Festival have 100% knowledge. All the information is out there. The prices opened up over a year ago and they've been polished and honed by the layers and chipped away at by the backers. Sometimes a new piece of information will come out and we can take advantage and place a value bet. Maybe a stable will be over-hyped and their horses over-backed, maybe another stable will be out of fashion and their runners ignored. Maybe a stable may go out of form and we might notice before the market catches up. Maybe a trial race will lead to a general over-reaction or a tipster like Pricewise will cause a hysterical panic and a shortening to a low price. All of these things are the reasons we should look at these markets every day.

 There are thousands of other people doing that as well though and I can assure you that if Hurricane Fly "should" be 4/1 right now it would be. This is a liquid market which always catches up.

 The only way that these Hills Priority Prices could not be a good thing is if the overound in the markets was so large that removing 3% on every runner still makes the number come to over 100.

 They are a no-brainer and they should all be bet, even if your heart of hearts tells you that you fancy something else in the race. If you really hate the idea of betting the fly at 3/1 I have good news. You can lay 3.55 on the machine. If we really don't like the idea of taking these prices then we should lay the horses.

 If anyone has no appetite for taking on these bets you can put them all down to me blind. I have no need to study form or have a view. I just know they are value and that is something you don't really know too often.

[tikay]

Here's one you won't hear too often...

 I 100% agree with adnmdv

 It's not often when we are sports betting that we can know with absolute certainty that we are having a value bet. That is the beauty of sports betting. It's all about opinions.

 The ante post markets on the Cheltenham Festival have 100% knowledge. All the information is out there. The prices opened up over a year ago and they've been polished and honed by the layers and chipped away at by the backers. Sometimes a new piece of information will come out and we can take advantage and place a value bet. Maybe a stable will be over-hyped and their horses over-backed, maybe another stable will be out of fashion and their runners ignored. Maybe a stable may go out of form and we might notice before the market catches up. Maybe a trial race will lead to a general over-reaction or a tipster like Pricewise will cause a hysterical panic and a shortening to a low price. All of these things are the reasons we should look at these markets every day.

 There are thousands of other people doing that as well though and I can assure you that if Hurricane Fly "should" be 4/1 right now it would be. This is a liquid market which always catches up.

 The only way that these Hills Priority Prices could not be a good thing is if the overound in the markets was so large that removing 3% on every runner still makes the number come to over 100.

 They are a no-brainer and they should all be bet, even if your heart of hearts tells you that you fancy something else in the race. If you really hate the idea of betting the fly at 3/1 I have good news. You can lay 3.55 on the machine. If we really don't like the idea of taking these prices then we should lay the horses.

 If anyone has no appetite for taking on these bets you can put them all down to me blind. I have no need to study form or have a view. I just know they are value and that is something you don't really know too often.

Thanks Mr C.

We have, to date, backed every one "blind", simply because the prices are ool with a liquid market, & we plan to keep doing so. The real debate has been how we allocate them to someone. (Now resolved).

I have some "Huddersfield to be Promoted" I can let you have at a good price if you wish?

[BigAdz]

Here's one you won't hear too often...

 I 100% agree with adnmdv

 It's not often when we are sports betting that we can know with absolute certainty that we are having a value bet. That is the beauty of sports betting. It's all about opinions.

 The ante post markets on the Cheltenham Festival have 100% knowledge. All the information is out there. The prices opened up over a year ago and they've been polished and honed by the layers and chipped away at by the backers. Sometimes a new piece of information will come out and we can take advantage and place a value bet. Maybe a stable will be over-hyped and their horses over-backed, maybe another stable will be out of fashion and their runners ignored. Maybe a stable may go out of form and we might notice before the market catches up. Maybe a trial race will lead to a general over-reaction or a tipster like Pricewise will cause a hysterical panic and a shortening to a low price. All of these things are the reasons we should look at these markets every day.

 There are thousands of other people doing that as well though and I can assure you that if Hurricane Fly "should" be 4/1 right now it would be. This is a liquid market which always catches up.

 The only way that these Hills Priority Prices could not be a good thing is if the overound in the markets was so large that removing 3% on every runner still makes the number come to over 100.

 They are a no-brainer and they should all be bet, even if your heart of hearts tells you that you fancy something else in the race. If you really hate the idea of betting the fly at 3/1 I have good news. You can lay 3.55 on the machine. If we really don't like the idea of taking these prices then we should lay the horses.

 If anyone has no appetite for taking on these bets you can put them all down to me blind. I have no need to study form or have a view. I just know they are value and that is something you don't really know too often.

ENOUGH ALREADY!!!!

I did state my initial post was thinking as a "horseracing" person, not a value man. My latest post acknowledged, if it was a sport that I had no interest/knowledge about I would impartially recognise the value and jump on it. My thought process would not be tainted. This is Cheltenham. Christmas/Easter/Birthday rolled into one with ice cream and hundreds and thousands on top, all served up by a naked Kelly Brook. It's less than a week away, and I'm excited. This time last year I was barely alive. Cut me some slack!!!

I was wrong god damn it, it was early, and I can't delete it, so please just everyone leave me alone......

But I still love you all.x