poker news
blondepedia
card room
tournament schedule
uk results
galleries
Welcome,
Guest
. Please
login
or
register
.
July 24, 2025, 09:30:51 PM
1 Hour
1 Day
1 Week
1 Month
Forever
Login with username, password and session length
Search:
Advanced search
Order through Amazon and help blonde Poker
2262425
Posts in
66606
Topics by
16991
Members
Latest Member:
nolankerwin
blonde poker forum
Community Forums
Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Tips for Tikay
0 Members and 49 Guests are viewing this topic.
« previous
next »
Pages:
1
...
2171
2172
2173
2174
[
2175
]
2176
2177
2178
2179
...
9209
Author
Topic: Tips for Tikay (Read 16446621 times)
Tal
Hero Member
Online
Posts: 24288
"He's always at it!"
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32610 on:
March 06, 2013, 02:29:55 PM »
And you're a gooner.
Logged
"You must take your opponent into a deep, dark forest, where 2+2=5, and the path leading out is only wide enough for one"
BigAdz
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 8140
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32611 on:
March 06, 2013, 02:31:16 PM »
Saving Grace
Logged
Good evenink. I wish I had a girlfriend.......
Bad Beat
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 1187
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32612 on:
March 06, 2013, 02:38:22 PM »
Sorry Adz - that wasn't a big rant at you.
I do agree with adnmdv that sometimes Fred backs things at big prices in events where the market is pretty well establsihed based on thin evidence, (don't always have time to comment on every bet, so apologies, not meaning to be aftertime), without much discussion. With these bets we know they are going to be plus ev. I don't really think I'd back either HF or Jezki at the current prices, but I do think they are all +ev and that is all we need to search for.
If there are some of the bets we collectively don't really like at current odds, or if on the day they have shortened but we really don't like them, then maybe we can agree to lay them. That is where the energy spent discussing them should go though imo.
Logged
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32613 on:
March 06, 2013, 03:38:12 PM »
Nice to have a sense of perspective
http://news.sky.com/story/1060967/nani-red-card-man-united-fan-dials-999
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
AndrewT
Global Moderator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 15483
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32614 on:
March 06, 2013, 03:38:17 PM »
Tikay, pretty shocked you backed Tighty's tennis bet considering he used 'final' as a verb.
Your standards are dropping in your middle age.
Logged
TightEnd
Administrator
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32615 on:
March 06, 2013, 03:39:47 PM »
Quote from: AndrewT on March 06, 2013, 03:38:17 PM
Tikay, pretty shocked you backed Tighty's tennis bet considering he used 'final' as a verb.
Your standards are dropping in your middle age.
My word, I am shocked at myself.
Logged
My eyes are open wide
By the way,I made it through the day
I watch the world outside
By the way, I'm leaving out today
redarmi
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 5166
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32616 on:
March 06, 2013, 03:54:27 PM »
I think sometimes we are in danger of getting away from the most important principle in sports betting which is that price is everything. The priority prices debate is indicative of this. It doesn't matter if you think something will win or not because if you are thinking along those lines you are thinking incorrectly. This isn't an unusual. I work with a guy who has been in the industry for 30+ years inclusing a long spell as one of the main guys for LSVC who supplied the line on US sports to all the Vegas casinos for years. He loves golf and is a very shrewd judge imo. This week we had this conversation. Me "I have backed Mickelson this week in the WGC event" Him "No I don't like that....he plays much better on the West Coast". Can you see what is wrong with his view? I never mentioned a price. Often I think Fred bets something because it is put up by someone fairly smart but often can't get the price but yet bets it anyway. To give you an example if you bet a true 10-1 shot at 12/1 every bet you would have a long term ROI of 18%. If you take 10-1 which is the next price down you make nothing. Fred makes, I think, about 2-3% on turnover so betting something recommended at 12/1 at 10/1 would be a HUGE mistake in fact generally taking a lesser price would be a mistake. It doesn't matter how much like something or fancy it will happen you absolutely have to attempt to assign a probability to it. When you get more experienced this becomes less important and a handful of people on Fred have a knack for it without assigning a probability because they intuitively know when something is wrong but for any aspiring sports bettors out there to think that they can skip this monotonous and often fruitless task of pricing up events they are interested in is a HUGE mistake. It is the best habit you can ever get into.
Logged
http://twitter.com/redarmi123
mondatoo
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 22504
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32617 on:
March 06, 2013, 03:59:20 PM »
Will there be a different special for Cheltenham everyday ?
Logged
action man
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 10650
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32618 on:
March 06, 2013, 04:00:10 PM »
coral going evs on sprinter sacre but not in shops, max £20
Logged
adnmdv
Full Member
Offline
Posts: 129
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32619 on:
March 06, 2013, 04:06:58 PM »
Quote from: redarmi on March 06, 2013, 03:54:27 PM
I think sometimes we are in danger of getting away from the most important principle in sports betting which is that price is everything. The priority prices debate is indicative of this. It doesn't matter if you think something will win or not because if you are thinking along those lines you are thinking incorrectly. This isn't an unusual. I work with a guy who has been in the industry for 30+ years inclusing a long spell as one of the main guys for LSVC who supplied the line on US sports to all the Vegas casinos for years. He loves golf and is a very shrewd judge imo. This week we had this conversation. Me "I have backed Mickelson this week in the WGC event" Him "No I don't like that....he plays much better on the West Coast". Can you see what is wrong with his view? I never mentioned a price. Often I think Fred bets something because it is put up by someone fairly smart but often can't get the price but yet bets it anyway. To give you an example if you bet a true 10-1 shot at 12/1 every bet you would have a long term ROI of 18%. If you take 10-1 which is the next price down you make nothing. Fred makes, I think, about 2-3% on turnover so betting something recommended at 12/1 at 10/1 would be a HUGE mistake in fact generally taking a lesser price would be a mistake. It doesn't matter how much like something or fancy it will happen you absolutely have to attempt to assign a probability to it.
When you get more experienced this becomes less important and a handful of people on Fred have a knack for it without assigning a probability because they intuitively know when something is wrong
but for any aspiring sports bettors out there to think that they can skip this monotonous and often fruitless task of pricing up events they are interested in is a HUGE mistake. It is the best habit you can ever get into.
Really I don't think *anyone* should be not assigning probabilities to something as just estimating is always going to be sub-optimal. From a staking pov you could be under/overstaking which is bad for your bank growth either way or you could also be mis-guessing and having a bad bet.
Logged
redarmi
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 5166
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32620 on:
March 06, 2013, 04:12:12 PM »
Yeah but you dont always have the time and to sit down and work out precise probabilities will mean that you end up passing up an opportunity that you know is +EV. This happens in running a lot for example.
Logged
http://twitter.com/redarmi123
Chompy
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 11503
Expert
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32621 on:
March 06, 2013, 04:51:14 PM »
Quote from: action man on March 06, 2013, 04:00:10 PM
coral going evs on sprinter sacre but not in shops, max £20
Pays for a takeaway. Or some silver shorts.
Swanson @ 7/1 and 8/1 is an incorrect price for Posh v Dipshits. Whether he scores or not, don't miss this one. Odd that half firms go 7 or 8 and the other half 3 or 4.
Logged
"I know we must all worship at the Church of Chomps, but statements like this are just plain ridic. He says he can't get a bet on, but we all know he can."
Graham C
Hero Member
Offline
Posts: 20663
Moo
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32622 on:
March 06, 2013, 05:54:22 PM »
Into 11/2 on Hills now for the anytime, Fred has moved markets again
Logged
@silobass
My Photos
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
Online
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32623 on:
March 06, 2013, 06:05:31 PM »
Quote from: action man on March 06, 2013, 04:00:10 PM
coral going evs on sprinter sacre but not in shops, max £20
Thanks Rick.
Unsurprisingly, the Enhanced Special is still listed, but they are not accepting bets now.
Logged
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
tikay
Administrator
Hero Member
Online
Posts: I am a geek!!
Re: Tips for Tikay
«
Reply #32624 on:
March 06, 2013, 06:12:40 PM »
Quote from: Chompy on March 06, 2013, 04:51:14 PM
Quote from: action man on March 06, 2013, 04:00:10 PM
coral going evs on sprinter sacre but not in shops, max £20
Pays for a takeaway. Or some silver shorts.
Swanson @ 7/1 and 8/1 is an incorrect price for Posh v Dipshits. Whether he scores or not, don't miss this one. Odd that half firms go 7 or 8 and the other half 3 or 4.
Missed BOTH prices, apologies.
AnyTime is now 6/1 best. Recommended @ 8/1.
FGS is now 16/1 best. Recommended @ 25/1. (Stan James still go 25/1, fwiw).
So, no bet unless you suggest otherwise.
PS - yes, I'm cross witth myself that I never got on earlier. And that I missed last night's coup. dn,chb.x#s.gs#'.d.g.gse;
«
Last Edit: March 06, 2013, 06:19:40 PM by tikay
»
Logged
All details of the 2016 Vegas Staking Adventure can be found via this link -
http://bit.ly/1pdQZDY
(copyright Anthony James Kendall, 2016).
Pages:
1
...
2171
2172
2173
2174
[
2175
]
2176
2177
2178
2179
...
9209
« previous
next »
Jump to:
Please select a destination:
-----------------------------
Poker Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Rail
===> past blonde Bashes
===> Best of blonde
=> Diaries and Blogs
=> Live Tournament Updates
=> Live poker
===> Live Tournament Staking
=> Internet Poker
===> Online Tournament Staking
=> Poker Hand Analysis
===> Learning Centre
-----------------------------
Community Forums
-----------------------------
=> The Lounge
=> Betting Tips and Sport Discussion
Loading...