Tips for Tikay

[Tal]

And you're a gooner.

[BigAdz]

Saving Grace

[Bad Beat]

 Sorry Adz - that wasn't a big rant at you.

 I do agree with adnmdv that sometimes Fred backs things at big prices in events where the market is pretty well establsihed based on thin evidence, (don't always have time to comment on every bet, so apologies, not meaning to be aftertime), without much discussion. With these bets we know they are going to be plus ev. I don't really think I'd back either HF or Jezki at the current prices, but I do think they are all +ev and that is all we need to search for.

 If there are some of the bets we collectively don't really like at current odds, or if on the day they have shortened but we really don't like them, then maybe we can agree to lay them. That is where the energy spent discussing them should go though imo.
 

[TightEnd]

Nice to have a sense of perspective

http://news.sky.com/story/1060967/nani-red-card-man-united-fan-dials-999

[AndrewT]

Tikay, pretty shocked you backed Tighty's tennis bet considering he used 'final' as a verb.

Your standards are dropping in your middle age.

[TightEnd]

Tikay, pretty shocked you backed Tighty's tennis bet considering he used 'final' as a verb.

Your standards are dropping in your middle age.

My word, I am shocked at myself.

[redarmi]

I think sometimes we are in danger of getting away from the most important principle in sports betting which is that price is everything.  The priority prices debate is indicative of this.  It doesn't matter if you think something will win or not because if you are thinking along those lines you are thinking incorrectly.  This isn't an unusual.  I work with a guy who has been in the industry for 30+ years inclusing a long spell as one of the main guys for LSVC who supplied the line on US sports to all the Vegas casinos for years.  He loves golf and is a very shrewd judge imo.  This week we had this conversation.  Me "I have backed Mickelson this week in the WGC event" Him "No I don't like that....he plays much better on the West Coast".  Can you see what is wrong with his view?  I never mentioned a price.  Often I think Fred bets something because it is put up by someone fairly smart but often can't get the price but yet bets it anyway.  To give you an example if you bet a true 10-1 shot at 12/1 every bet you would have a long term ROI of 18%.  If you take 10-1 which is the next price down you make nothing.  Fred makes, I think, about 2-3% on turnover so betting something recommended at 12/1 at 10/1 would be a HUGE mistake in fact generally taking a lesser price would be a mistake.  It doesn't matter how much like something or fancy it will happen you absolutely have to attempt to assign a probability to it.  When you get more experienced this becomes less important and a handful of people on Fred have a knack for it without assigning a probability because they intuitively know when something is wrong but for any aspiring sports bettors out there to think that they can skip this monotonous and often fruitless task of pricing up events they are interested in is a HUGE mistake.  It is the best habit you can ever get into.

[mondatoo]

Will there be a different special for Cheltenham everyday ?

[action man]

coral going evs on sprinter sacre but not in shops, max £20

[adnmdv]

I think sometimes we are in danger of getting away from the most important principle in sports betting which is that price is everything.  The priority prices debate is indicative of this.  It doesn't matter if you think something will win or not because if you are thinking along those lines you are thinking incorrectly.  This isn't an unusual.  I work with a guy who has been in the industry for 30+ years inclusing a long spell as one of the main guys for LSVC who supplied the line on US sports to all the Vegas casinos for years.  He loves golf and is a very shrewd judge imo.  This week we had this conversation.  Me "I have backed Mickelson this week in the WGC event" Him "No I don't like that....he plays much better on the West Coast".  Can you see what is wrong with his view?  I never mentioned a price.  Often I think Fred bets something because it is put up by someone fairly smart but often can't get the price but yet bets it anyway.  To give you an example if you bet a true 10-1 shot at 12/1 every bet you would have a long term ROI of 18%.  If you take 10-1 which is the next price down you make nothing.  Fred makes, I think, about 2-3% on turnover so betting something recommended at 12/1 at 10/1 would be a HUGE mistake in fact generally taking a lesser price would be a mistake.  It doesn't matter how much like something or fancy it will happen you absolutely have to attempt to assign a probability to it.  When you get more experienced this becomes less important and a handful of people on Fred have a knack for it without assigning a probability because they intuitively know when something is wrong but for any aspiring sports bettors out there to think that they can skip this monotonous and often fruitless task of pricing up events they are interested in is a HUGE mistake.  It is the best habit you can ever get into.

Really I don't think *anyone* should be not assigning probabilities to something as just estimating is always going to be sub-optimal. From a staking pov you could be under/overstaking which is bad for your bank growth either way or you could also be mis-guessing and having a bad bet.

[redarmi]

Yeah but you dont always have the time and to sit down and work out precise probabilities will mean that you end up passing up an opportunity that you know is +EV.  This happens in running a lot for example.

[Chompy]

coral going evs on sprinter sacre but not in shops, max £20

Pays for a takeaway. Or some silver shorts.

Swanson @ 7/1 and 8/1 is an incorrect price for Posh v Dipshits. Whether he scores or not, don't miss this one. Odd that half firms go 7 or 8 and the other half 3 or 4.

[Graham C]

Into 11/2 on Hills now for the anytime, Fred has moved markets again

[tikay]

coral going evs on sprinter sacre but not in shops, max £20

Thanks Rick.

Unsurprisingly, the Enhanced Special is still listed, but they are not accepting bets now.

[tikay]

coral going evs on sprinter sacre but not in shops, max £20

Pays for a takeaway. Or some silver shorts.

Swanson @ 7/1 and 8/1 is an incorrect price for Posh v Dipshits. Whether he scores or not, don't miss this one. Odd that half firms go 7 or 8 and the other half 3 or 4.

Missed BOTH prices, apologies.

AnyTime is now 6/1 best. Recommended @ 8/1.

FGS is now 16/1 best. Recommended @ 25/1. (Stan James still go 25/1, fwiw).

So, no bet unless you suggest otherwise.

PS - yes, I'm cross witth myself that I never got on earlier. And that I missed last night's coup. dn,chb.x#s.gs#'.d.g.gse;