Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Four Australians dropped for the 3rd Indian test in Mohali on the 18th.

They were asked to fill in a form for feedback on ways to improve (bat better, bowl better, hold catches?), failed to do so and dropped

Shane Watson
Pattinson and Johnson
Khawaja

Watson has left in a huff (time to fill in a form, Indian Departure visa)

Watson the best batsman Clarke aside, Pattinson the best quick bowler

aussies down to two quicks in the squad for next week, Starc and Siddle, in Mohali


With team spirit in disarray, already 2-0 down, thread has to take India at Evens while it can

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-australia/test-series/india-v-australia-%5B3rd-test%5D/winner

Recommendation India at Evens chunkyville

Tighty Alert

Morning Rich.

Has there been a material change in the circumstances since you put that up in my absence yesterday?

Most bookies are a touch under Evens, but Betfair go 2.34.

I have had £50 @ 2.34 for now, was tempted to have more as the price seemed so much above your suggestion, & the market generally. Hopefully I have not got on after things changed.

You happy with £50 @ 2.34? If you are really confident, we could double that, as the price seems so good.


http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-australia/test-series/india-v-australia-[3rd-test]/winner

We have £50 @ 2.34, India to beat Australia, Third Test.

ON

India 2.34 £50.00 £67.00
Ref: 25763062212 Bet placed: 07:38 12-Mar-13

[Tal]

Right. The bookies have remembered that they might be busy in the next fewdays, so they have sent their geekiest nerdlinger into a corner with a ZX Spectrum, a 6" BLT Sub on Italian bread and a blueberry juice to compile the odds for the Candidates Chess Tournament, which has the sheer temerity to kick off on Gold Cup Day.

I posted some stuff up here a few days back to say I thought 1.67 looked a good price for the favourite, Magnus Carlsen.

3 markets have opened up today AFAIK:

Ladbrokes go 8/15
Bwin go 1.45
Unibet go 1.55


I checked an hour ago and Betfair has £26 at 1.67 and £1,700 at 1.66.

I've seen a few simulations on 2+2's chess threads but they are largely based on rating alone and don't factor in tournament results (as opposed to matches), who they are winning games against (ie, individual results against these opponents) and where they get their rating points from (again, do they just beat up the rabbits or everyone). It is also important to factor in current form and no one seems to give that much credence.

Pretty much all of these things fall into Carlsen's favour and yet none of the simulations factor these things in.

One simulation still came out at a monstrous 70% chance of Carlsen winning (a little ambitious IMO but there we go). That would be about 1.4. On the whole, they seem to come out at 65%ish and that's 1.55. I don't claim to be am expert and I'm sure these odds setters have algorithms I can't imagine but I think Ladbrokes has called this right and that Betfair is therefore way out of line.

I have been a little bit cheeky and didn't want to shout out about the price until some of the bookies put up prices. They all go short on Kramnik (shorter than Aronian) and some as short as 4/1. That is no price. But outside 1/2 for Carlsen feels like a bet to me. He wins this tournament in these conditions at least 2 out of 3 times. We are being offered 6 out of 10.

I would recommend on this basis a decent bet on Magnus Carlsen to win the Candidates Chess Tournament with Betfair. If you can stretch to a biggie, go big. £100 for stealing a tenner from the machine? Whatever you're comfortable with. Appreciate you have to give commission on that, so judge it as you see fit, Fred.

Good analysis.  Using ratings then adding in subjective stuff is a very solid approach and forms the basis of what I do on a lot of sports and, if I am honest, i learnt it from the likes of Tony Bloom etc so this seems a really solid bet to me.

Noted, reds, thank you.

We will be plunging along the lines Tal suggested.

I wonder if the same thought occurred to you as it did me?

Tal, who I'm sure will admit to being a Grade One Ice-Cream a year or so ago, has reallly used Fred, & the advice of some of you guys, well. He knows Chess better than anyone here, always has, but that price analysis is proper pro punting stuff. Whether the bet wins or loses matters not. The fundamentals were correct, & he proved the value. He has long waved goodbye to all that "I fancy United tonight" stuff.

I speak, of course, as an Ice-Cream, so the comments are not intended to be patronising.

Cap fits. I'm a solid Grade 3-3½ these days, with occasional spurts of talking sense.

Fred has been good to me. We have the right end of this bet. We just need the chap to do his bit.

Round one on Friday sees Carlsen play Aronian as Black (just the way the draw has been done) and then Kramnik as White on Saturday. Just about the toughest imaginable start. It is an all-play-all league format, though, so it doesn't really matter.

I'll happily keep Fred up to speed, as my intention is to do Chess Thread updates. Last round is 1 April, BTW, unless two or more players are tied at the top. Then, they come back on 2 April for a tiebreaker. If Carlsen is involved in one of those, he's good at them, but it is a penalty shoot out; a bit of a leveller.

We don't want 1/2 shots involved in sweats. Hands and heels, please, Mr Carlsen.

[TightEnd]

I was told yesterday to get on 9 or more Irish winners at Cheltenham at 13/8. think best now is 11/8 though. Something to do with dead ground suiting the Irish runners?

This, if accurate, would tally with Mr Channing advising Mullins at 2-1 I suppose

[tikay]

I was told yesterday to get on 9 or more Irish winners at Cheltenham at 13/8. think best now is 11/8 though. Something to do with dead ground suiting the Irish runners?

This, if accurate, would tally with Mr Channing advising Mullins at 2-1 I suppose

Thanks Rich.

May be true, but it sounds a bit loose & anecdotal. We can't lose Online on a Fiday night, site is full of drunk Russians

Anyway, if it was a bet at 13/8, 11/8 is no good.

Thanks anyway.

Still keen on any value we can find in "Cheltenham Specials".

[TightEnd]

Four Australians dropped for the 3rd Indian test in Mohali on the 18th.

They were asked to fill in a form for feedback on ways to improve (bat better, bowl better, hold catches?), failed to do so and dropped

Shane Watson
Pattinson and Johnson
Khawaja

Watson has left in a huff (time to fill in a form, Indian Departure visa)

Watson the best batsman Clarke aside, Pattinson the best quick bowler

aussies down to two quicks in the squad for next week, Starc and Siddle, in Mohali


With team spirit in disarray, already 2-0 down, thread has to take India at Evens while it can

http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-australia/test-series/india-v-australia-%5B3rd-test%5D/winner

Recommendation India at Evens chunkyville

Tighty Alert

Morning Rich.

Has there been a material change in the circumstances since you put that up in my absence yesterday?

Most bookies are a touch under Evens, but Betfair go 2.34.

I have had £50 @ 2.34 for now, was tempted to have more as the price seemed so much above your suggestion, & the market generally. Hopefully I have not got on after things changed.

You happy with £50 @ 2.34? If you are really confident, we could double that, as the price seems so good.


http://www.oddschecker.com/cricket/india-v-australia/test-series/india-v-australia-[3rd-test]/winner

We have £50 @ 2.34, India to beat Australia, Third Test.

ON

India 2.34 £50.00 £67.00
Ref: 25763062212 Bet placed: 07:38 12-Mar-13

No change since yesterday, except much Australian hand wringing

Happy with the bet.

[TightEnd]

I was told yesterday to get on 9 or more Irish winners at Cheltenham at 13/8. think best now is 11/8 though. Something to do with dead ground suiting the Irish runners?

This, if accurate, would tally with Mr Channing advising Mullins at 2-1 I suppose

Thanks Rich.

May be true, but it sounds a bit loose & anecdotal. We can't lose Online on a Fiday night, site is full of drunk Russians

Anyway, if it was a bet at 13/8, 11/8 is no good.

Thanks anyway.

Still keen on any value we can find in "Cheltenham Specials".

I am a racing banana split

Just passing on some corroboration for the primus inter pares Bad Beat's suggestion

I note  Mullins is 7/4 best now as well

[tikay]

I was told yesterday to get on 9 or more Irish winners at Cheltenham at 13/8. think best now is 11/8 though. Something to do with dead ground suiting the Irish runners?

This, if accurate, would tally with Mr Channing advising Mullins at 2-1 I suppose

Thanks Rich.

May be true, but it sounds a bit loose & anecdotal. We can't lose Online on a Fiday night, site is full of drunk Russians

Anyway, if it was a bet at 13/8, 11/8 is no good.

Thanks anyway.

Still keen on any value we can find in "Cheltenham Specials".

I am a racing banana split

Just passing on some corroboration for the primus inter pares Bad Beat's suggestion

I note  Mullins is 7/4 best now as well

Banana split? Is that above or below an Ice-Cream?

7/4 Mullins? Wonder what the non-banana splits think of that?

[TightEnd]

With it snowing hard,inspection at 10.30am, covers off at 10, forecast to be 1 degree c at midday, windchill at -12 overnight......6/4 the meeting today to be off, anyone?

sort of an emotional hedge!

[tikay]

I was told yesterday to get on 9 or more Irish winners at Cheltenham at 13/8. think best now is 11/8 though. Something to do with dead ground suiting the Irish runners?

This, if accurate, would tally with Mr Channing advising Mullins at 2-1 I suppose

On here, or elsewhere?

[TightEnd]

I was told yesterday to get on 9 or more Irish winners at Cheltenham at 13/8. think best now is 11/8 though. Something to do with dead ground suiting the Irish runners?

This, if accurate, would tally with Mr Channing advising Mullins at 2-1 I suppose

On here, or elsewhere?

On here, late last night

"One of them is a pretty geeky guy and a winner at gambling. He told me he made it 10/11 and 11/10 and he has had what might be his biggest bet all week on Mullins. He took 2/1 and it's only just under that on Betfair."

7/4 about an 11/10 shot, apparently

[tikay]

With it snowing hard,inspection at 10.30am, covers off at 10, forecast to be 1 degree c at midday, windchill at -12 overnight......6/4 the meeting today to be off, anyone?

sort of an emotional hedge!

+2c at midday now.....


http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/uk/sw/cheltenham_forecast_weather.html

[tikay]

I was told yesterday to get on 9 or more Irish winners at Cheltenham at 13/8. think best now is 11/8 though. Something to do with dead ground suiting the Irish runners?

This, if accurate, would tally with Mr Channing advising Mullins at 2-1 I suppose

On here, or elsewhere?

On here, late last night

"One of them is a pretty geeky guy and a winner at gambling. He told me he made it 10/11 and 11/10 and he has had what might be his biggest bet all week on Mullins. He took 2/1 and it's only just under that on Betfair."

7/4 about an 11/10 shot, apparently

drtyd'#xs;/rft
aa

zsEFG
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On my way.

[Chompy]

Day one around 1.3 to go ahead with on Betfair. Conditions would have to be really bad for them to cancel imo.

[tikay]

Think Tighty asked if anyone had a view on the trainers for Cheltenham. I spoke to a couple of shrewd guys. They both said a straight match and Nicholls underpriced, no chance.

 One of them is a pretty geeky guy and a winner at gambling. He told me he made it 10/11 and 11/10 and he has had what might be his biggest bet all week on Mullins. He took 2/1 and it's only just under that on Betfair.

 He has also bet the Irish to get lots of winners as he didn't think the prices moved enough as the going kept getting softer.

 Just throwing it out there.

Well if that is correct, we have to get on at 7/4.

Thanks.

We have £40 @ 7/4, Ladbrokes, Mullins Top Trainer, Cheltenham.

ON

Festival Top Trainer Cheltenham Specials
2013-03-12 13:30:00
 
Market: Top Trainer 
 
Selection: W. Mullins @ 7/4 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000281
 
Placed at: 08:19 12/03/2013
 
Bet Type: Single
 
Stake Per Line: £40.00
 
Number of lines: 1
 
Stake: £40.00
 
Tax: £0.00
 
Tax Rate: 0.00%
 
Total Paid: £40.00
 
 £110.00
 
 

[BigAdz]

Just woken to find an inspection. Here in Ciren ten odd miles away, the sun is shining and not a flake to be seen.

WTF God bloke!