Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Day one around 1.3 to go ahead with on Betfair. Conditions would have to be really bad for them to cancel imo.

I remember the time - part 293.

I had a huge bet on Midnight Court, (Johnny Francombe/Fred Winter) to win the Gold Cup in 1978, & I was a Member then, so was there all 3 days.

Turned up on Gold Cup Day, & the snow began mid-morning & never stopped, & the Meeting was abandoned. I was absolutely devestated, what an anti-climax!

The Gold Cup eventually took place in April that year.

Did Midnight Court get the job done?


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQO-BshesAY

[tikay]

I'm going to put this one out there, because I think it will spark healthy discussion...

Cardiff v Leicester - Cardiff to win are 11/8.

Two out of form teams, probably Leicester more so & it seems like the fans are losing patience with Pearson.

Cardiff been better at home earlier in season, but comfortably have the best home record against a team who are the joint 3rd lowest scorers in the league.

It would seem Leicester would need to score at least a couple to hold any hope of getting something here and looking at how out of form they are & lack of goals away, seems a big ask, not to mention there will be a lot fresher legs in the Cardiff team having not played at the weekend.

I think 11/8 just represents enough value to get on here and I am confident we will have a decent sweat here. Going to recc a big one for me at £80.

Would like to hear Tighty's view on this? If he is the one who can validate my reasoning then he can!

------------------------------

Also not a recc for Fred.... but would like to hear views on Barnsley at 2's at home to Brighton? It seems Brighton have one available striker...

Hi Aaron, & thanks.

Lord Tightness, a Leicester geek by trade, reckons anything above Evens Cardiff is a good price.

You suggested 11/8 though, so we are on, but we have halved the bet size due to the reduced value.

We have £40 @ 6/5, Ladbrokes, Cardiff to beat Leicester tonight.

ON

Cardiff v Leicester
English
2013-03-12 19:45:00
 
Market: Match betting 
 
Selection: Cardiff @ 6/5 
 
Receipt No.: O/142640973/0000282
 
Placed at: 08:39 12/03/2013
 
Bet Type: Single
 
Stake Per Line: £40.00
 
Number of lines: 1
 
Stake: £40.00
 
Tax: £0.00
 
Tax Rate: 0.00%
 
Total Paid: £40.00
 
 £88.00
 
 

[Chompy]

Bit of snow doesn't hurt at Cheltenham

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tst2QSoQtkw

[peejaytwo]

fantastic link tikay, midnight court really pinged the last there.

while on youtube i decided to watch the Greatest Jockey winning the Champion Hurdle, holding up the talented but quirky Sea Pigeon til half way up the run in. Nerves of steel.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wkfs-DMLfi8

[tikay]

Our only other action yesterday was to get on "No Grand Slam Winner" with some alacrity. Our only other remaining 6N bet, on Tualigi, did not improve, so that is in a bit of a hole. 


Morning Mr T.

I think what you wrote is a tad inaccurate. We backed Tuilagi each way at 16-1. He has 1 try so far and is actually in the place position, admitedly with a lot of other people, and is currently priced at 100/30 2nd fav. If all our bets were in such a hole we would be sitting atop of Everest.

Your Super Nit.

Ha!

Yes, hopefully, inaccurate rather than premature.

I sort of had it in my mind that the game v Italy would be the clincher, it would be an easy 66-3 & our boys would be queuing up to run in the Try's, sharing them out, & our man would get two or three of them. The crushing disappointment of the game & spectacle made me assume we were dead in the water.

In hector we trust.

[Chompy]

Sedgefield off

Cheltingham now 1.45 and driffing further.

If it's on it's gonna be funny old ground and I'd expect some weird results.

[Dubai]

Whats the verdict been on the Hills offer for the Supreme- Hills are BOG on race so no need to take SP, just take the prices and majority of time get paid out at a better price anyway. The top 5 offer must merit a few ew maxes in the same race- that'll get the old boys heart pumping

[Bad Beat]

 My sister came to visit me when I was a student. She finally asked me how I was doing for money and it was the last day of a tough Cheltenham and I was pretty skint. I told her I'd lost an important book and I needed to replace it and she gave me a score.

 I was pretty sensible. The second she went I raced to the shops and had £10 on The Thinker at 13/2 for the Gold Cup. I'd taken 14/1 for £6 in the morning (leaving myself about £4 in the world).

 It came through the snow that year to win.

 I think it's possible I didn't have the best of it on the second bet.

 

[tikay]

fantastic link tikay, midnight court really pinged the last there.

while on youtube i decided to watch the Greatest Jockey winning the Champion Hurdle, holding up the talented but quirky Sea Pigeon til half way up the run in. Nerves of steel.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wkfs-DMLfi8

Stop it!

Yes, he pinged the last, & so did Sea Pigeon, I was there for that one, too.

Sea Pigeon was amazing, most remember him as a hurdler, but he wes a very useful flat horse, too, winning the Chester Cup twice,  & the Ebor, the last named with Jonjo as jockey!

Around that time, Piggott won the Chester Cup on a horse called John Cherry. If you can find a clip of that, I'll blow you a kiss.

[TightEnd]

Whats the verdict been on the Hills offer for the Supreme- Hills are BOG on race so no need to take SP, just take the prices and majority of time get paid out at a better price anyway. The top 5 offer must merit a few ew maxes in the same race- that'll get the old boys heart pumping

the first five e/w under/over works out to 65-67% if my maths is right

Can back 7 or 8 of them, not the no-hopers, and be +EV right?

[TightEnd]

If it's on it's gonna be funny old ground and I'd expect some weird results.

dead ground, no ping, thorough stayers right?

give us some names, oracle of the fens*

* the name we use when buttering you up, instead of idiot

[tikay]

Whats the verdict been on the Hills offer for the Supreme- Hills are BOG on race so no need to take SP, just take the prices and majority of time get paid out at a better price anyway. The top 5 offer must merit a few ew maxes in the same race- that'll get the old boys heart pumping

GO AWAY.

Jeez, we have backed so bloody much!

Cheltenham Update (what we are on, & at what price) shortly.

[tikay]

Whats the verdict been on the Hills offer for the Supreme- Hills are BOG on race so no need to take SP, just take the prices and majority of time get paid out at a better price anyway. The top 5 offer must merit a few ew maxes in the same race- that'll get the old boys heart pumping

the first five e/w under/over works out to 65-67% if my maths is right

Can back 7 or 8 of them, not the no-hopers, and be +EV right?

FFS Rich, don't encourage him.

It was his mate, Eso Kral, who gave us Walsall to go down, then flip-flopped.

How can we lose?

[Dubai]

Channings cut it down to 5 and recommended 3. Id suggest just go ahead and back the 5 he said ew, having more runners doesnt really increase variance here either as they are all related contingencies ie if first ones place part loses the next 4 are all way more likely to win.

I really think you should be having more on this race than any previous bet on the whole thread, just because its impossible for you to be taking a bad bet.

[Chompy]

If it's on it's gonna be funny old ground and I'd expect some weird results.

dead ground, no ping, thorough stayers right?

give us some names, oracle of the fens*

* the name we use when buttering you up, instead of idiot

Butter me up, go on, butter me.

Tbh I wouldn't be the person to ask about Cheltenham. Loads out there that know more about the top jump horses than me.

I wouldn't touch it today myself. Sticky, clawing ground often leads to nonsensical results. It's a bit like trying to analyse a Southwell race full of horses that have never run on Fibresand.