Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

Hi tikay, would you mind if we built up a portfolio on the Wolrd Snooker Championship in April?

a) I'd like to suggest £2 each on three rank outsiders , with a view to trading back on any that give us a run?

These are

Jack Lisowski 200-1 in spots (BlueSq to save you searching)
Anthony McGill 680 Betfair
Kurt Maflin 550 Betfair

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/snooker/market?id=1.105777117&mpch=ads&rfr=63

All have to qualify for the Crucible, but all are very talented and in my mind top 16 players on a 1-2 season view

Lisowski's odds reflect that he has today beaten Trump 5-3 in China in a sensational game, and is I think guaranteed to only have to win one game to get to the Crucible.

Of the other hotpot, Luca Brecel he's at 80 and we've missed the price a bit

The aim is to get a run to the Crucible from 1 or more then hope they win a game..at which point we are laying back at 33s or running it, take a view then


2 Since last year we have been periodically discussing Trump for the Crucible

We know he tends to struggle to get motivated for minor tournaments, and his recent form has been poor by his standards

Today though he played well, just outdone by his training partner in a match where neither really missed a ball

Because of this form and results his price has drifted from 11-2 and 6-1 generall out to 7-1 in places and 8.2 on Betfair

http://www.oddschecker.com/snooker/world-championship/world-snooker-championship/winner

There are no more tournaments between China and Sheffiled, so this should be the extent of the drift.

Recommend £50 win Trump 2013 World Championship, taking the current minor liquidity above that 8.0 on Betfair and leaving the rest up to be matched


3 Notes

The 16 Qualifiers who get to the last 32 are random drawn to face one of the sixteen seeds
O'Sullivan has stated he is playing, so auto goes in as No 1 seed and is priced at a (barmy, I think) 15/2 having been out for year, albeit with tonnes of natural talent
At the end of the current China Open the seedings are calculated for Sheffield

Currently it would be

1 Ronnie
2 Selby
3 Trump
4 Higgins
5 Robertson

but this could change, with Trump and Higgins already out of China. Ideally Trump would go into Ronnie's half, if we are to back him, but this probably requires Robertson to go deep in China

I really think we should do more portfolio building on the bigger sporting Events, even if only as a base for some trading later, so yes, "like".

Before I get on, two questions, though maybe one answer covers both.

1) Why do you think Ronnie is a silly price? Knowing him, he will only play if he can play at his brst, & if he did, & was, I'd bite their hands off @ 15/2, he is different class. Bit like Woods in the Golf - if his head is in the right place, he has no one to fear.

2) Why do we want Trump in Ronnie's half of the Draw? Because you view Ronnie as a no-hoper?

[TightEnd]

Ronnie is a fantastic natural talent. I don't have him as a no-hoper, but I'd want to be in his half and not having to come through two of Selby/Robertson/Higgins in the other...

It took Tiger some months and tournaments to get that teak tough mental edge back to the point where he is at the top every week...

15/2 is a great price if you get a fully tuned up Ronnie with his head on straight...just can't see how he can be with no match practice....

[JaffaCake]

I used to work with Kurt Maflin's dad, called Curt, strangely enough. I know all dads think their son is the best thing since sliced bread but one day he showed me some of the clippings he had from when he was a kid, think he beat Jimmy White when he was about 11, had a 147 aged 9, Jimmy was quoted saying the kid if the most naturally talented player he's ever seen etc etc. He won all the juniors and won millions of games in a row, beating loads of players who went on to make it.

He then got a bit into the party lifestyle and never quite fulfiled his potential, then met a young Norwegian bird (MBN) and moved there to live the quiet life. Haven't seen Curt in three or four years but didn't even know Kurt was back playing again, tho he did always say he'd come back to snooker when he was ready. Defo gonna have a lil interest bet

[tikay]

Ha!

Dubai got there first.

Blue Sq have now slashed Lidsowski to 100/1 AND Suspended the market on him!

[Dubai]

Lol nothing to do with me

[TightEnd]

I used to work with Kurt Maflin's dad, called Curt, strangely enough. I know all dads think their son is the best thing since sliced bread but one day he showed me some of the clippings he had from when he was a kid, think he beat Jimmy White when he was about 11, had a 147 aged 9, Jimmy was quoted saying the kid if the most naturally talented player he's ever seen etc etc. He won all the juniors and won millions of games in a row, beating loads of players who went on to make it.

He then got a bit into the party lifestyle and never quite fulfiled his potential, then met a young Norwegian bird (MBN) and moved there to live the quiet life. Haven't seen Curt in three or four years but didn't even know Kurt was back playing again, tho he did always say he'd come back to snooker when he was ready. Defo gonna have a lil interest bet

Kurt was ill for quite a while after he came back, dropped down the rankings..but has been recovering this year

He had a really good win in the PTC recently (beat Doherty, made the last 16), and is definitely going the right way

@kurtmaflin147 on twitter


vegaslover on here follows Maflin's career quite closely

[TightEnd]

Ha!

Dubai got there first.

Blue Sq have now slashed Lidsowski to 100/1 AND Suspended the market on him!

200-1 in a couple of unusual spots like Betway

150-1 elsewhere, same principle applies as before 

[Tal]

Great photos Simon, thanks.

Even greater crosstable.

PS - I owe you a PM reply, am working through the list, bear with me. Was tremendous to see you at the weekend, & I was so pleased you got along nicely with Jesse May & Co.

All good, sir. Was fun. Between the chess and the poker, I did about ten hours of railing on Saturday.

Worth every second.

[tikay]

Ha!

Dubai got there first.

Blue Sq have now slashed Lidsowski to 100/1 AND Suspended the market on him!

200-1 in a couple of unusual spots like Betway

150-1 elsewhere, same principle applies as before 

Nope, not for me, anyway.

Betway I don't use, PP offered me £0.27.

The best I can get is 100/1 with BetFred. 

[Snowball]

why are serbia 8/13 at home vs scotland? Expected them to be alot shorter?

Like Scotland they are pretty rotten tho they did beat Wales 6-1 at Home which looks like a freak result.
Their's snow on the pitch and an inspection in a couple of Hours.

[horseplayer]

even against scotland i could not back serbia at odds on

they were surprisingly insipid against croatia and despite having a very solid back 4 on paper looked very vulnerable.

a lot of there attacking players are real 1 in 4 players which i suspect is what happened against wales if they click they can be a good side.

[TightEnd]

27p at 150-1?

wow

if you haven't done it already lets wait a few days, see if he drifts once the current attention lessens

[Marky147]

I used to work with Kurt Maflin's dad, called Curt, strangely enough. I know all dads think their son is the best thing since sliced bread but one day he showed me some of the clippings he had from when he was a kid, think he beat Jimmy White when he was about 11, had a 147 aged 9, Jimmy was quoted saying the kid if the most naturally talented player he's ever seen etc etc. He won all the juniors and won millions of games in a row, beating loads of players who went on to make it.

He then got a bit into the party lifestyle and never quite fulfiled his potential, then met a young Norwegian bird (MBN) and moved there to live the quiet life. Haven't seen Curt in three or four years but didn't even know Kurt was back playing again, tho he did always say he'd come back to snooker when he was ready. Defo gonna have a lil interest bet

When I waiting to do my basic in the Navy, my old man packed me off to his brother's pub in Welling to keep me out of trouble which worked [  ]

A couple of the lads I used to knock about with were friendly with him, and they were always trying to arrange a match. Unfortunately one of them had let slip how good he was and even though I was handy I didn't fancy losing my wages

I remember when he first started making a few waves wondering if he'd push on like Trump has, or if mixing with the boys who liked a line and a drink would cost him.

[tikay]

27p at 150-1?

wow

if you haven't done it already lets wait a few days, see if he drifts once the current attention lessens

PP selectively Restrict me, not everything, just now & then.

[tikay]

Got all that snooker stuff on Rich, will confirm the details later.