Tips for Tikay

[Waz1892]

Middlesborough vs Posh.

Spectacularly nose-diving Middlesbrough are striving to avoid a 12th loss in 15 Championship games in 2013, and a fifth in a row.  Tony Mowbray's side have picked up one win from their last eight, and only two in this calendar year.  

Posh, fighting for lives, unbeaten in 6 & winning last 2 on trot.

Posh 12/5.

[Dubai]

Thanks for the explanation Dave. Sorry it raised so many other questions

I guess the one thing you rely on is the accuracy of the betfair market? If that was out would this change our EV?

Also how on earth did you manage to notice this? Do you just check all of the 8 runner races to see if there's a potential discrepancy then check Betfair?

Just scan races looking for 8/9 runners, a short price fav and a few rags and the markets will always be too good for the place bets to not have a bet

The 5:40 is a good each way betting heat with 12 runners now and 1/4 top 3. For example we'd be getting 2-1 Brockwell Park and Zava River to place when they are 6/4 and 13/8 on bf

[bobby1]

Does anyone know the what Freds world snooker outright portfolio is ATM?

Thanks

[Dubai]

With regards to the bf markets accuracy, its defo accurate enough for ME to base my bets on, given I dont know anything about any of the horse- on my side would be the maths.

Where someone like Neil Channing has an even bigger edge, is he is a very good judge and would therefore have an opinion on the prices of each of the horses, and bet accordingly, bear in mind he has the maths on his side obviously anyway which is why he would struggle to consistently get on these sort of bets. If for example he really thought the favourite was one to take on then this race would probably be a complete max bet race for him. He also can adjust his stakes and bet the horses he fancies more in relation to the prices, where as i just have to base my information on the betfair market

[Chompy]

Middlesborough vs Posh.

Spectacularly nose-diving Middlesbrough are striving to avoid a 12th loss in 15 Championship games in 2013, and a fifth in a row.  Tony Mowbray's side have picked up one win from their last eight, and only two in this calendar year.  

Posh, fighting for lives, unbeaten in 6 & winning last 2 on trot.

Posh 12/5.

His Nittiness is already on Poshies H-t/F-T

[redarmi]

What happened there Stuart? Even my mum's account was on 5%.

LOL - No idea.....I did get restricted once, in fact it was one of the first accounts I got restricted on and then one day I logged in again and could bet again.  I don't think it was totally unrestricted but I could bet 3 figures on almost anything.

[edgascoigne]

What happened there Stuart? Even my mum's account was on 5%.

LOL - No idea.....I did get restricted once, in fact it was one of the first accounts I got restricted on and then one day I logged in again and could bet again.  I don't think it was totally unrestricted but I could bet 3 figures on almost anything.

Exactly what happened to me. Left the account alone for what must have been years, can't remember what took me back to it but when I did all of a sudden I could have a bet. Most strange.

[tikay]

Does anyone know the what Freds world snooker outright portfolio is ATM?

Thanks

Was hoping you may be interested in that, as I know you are vey well-connected with Snooker.

I think it is a great thing for Fred to get more involved with these type of events, too, great value is there - if we can spot it, & e get a 2+ week sweat, too.

Personally, I would like to build more portfiolios or baskets of bets on bigger Events.

Anyway, here is where we are at present, but I'd rather like to add to the basket if there is value to be had, but we must be cogniscant of our existing position & portfilio of course.

Jack Lisowski, £3 @ 100/1

Judd Trump, £50 @ 8/1

Anthony McGill, £3 @ 500.1

Kurt Maflin, £3 @ 510.

Personally, I have had a "lumpy" bet on another player, not amongst those listed above, who I think is standout value. No prizes for guessing who.

[tikay]

Incidentally, for Phil, & others, as the question is frequently asked "what have we got on?", the FULL list of our forward bets is Updated Daily, & shown in the Spreadsheet which is included in the Daily Report.

Now is a good time for anyone to peruse it, as at the start of the month it is not so cluttered with the day-to-day stuff.

You may need a sick bag when you read some of the bets we have.....it is the nature of long-term bets that we sometimes get them very wrong. Or even Walsall wrong, which is as wrong as it is possible to be.    


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aia1Hxq-NDNWdFk3UmlTSXMzTjRBTVNfOWRndVFsZHc&usp=drive_web#gid=23

[tikay]

Today's Kamikaze Jobbie.

Jayo is drifting, the other two have come in considerably.


http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/exeter/16:10/winner

[Dubai]

Best odds guaranteed DOH!

[Marky147]

http://tykestv.eu/streams/horse-racing/racinguk/

If anyone wants to watch...

[Dubai]

Ok so the fav got beat. And so did the 2nd, 3rd and 4th. Time for a lie down. Should have won chunks on a result like that

[tikay]

[tikay]

OK guys, time to man up, incoming test of character.

We have just done £600, but we have all month to claw at least some of it back.

No regrets, no whining or complaining, what is gone is gone.

I'm actually going to quite enjoy this. 

The comeback starts here.