Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

Click to see full-size image.

They've got the best goalkeeper in the Championship




The best fullback

Click to see full-size image.

The best centre back



The best holding midfielder



The best creative midfielder





And to top it off, the Colin Kaepernick of the Championship.

If you haven't heard of Leonardo Ulloa yet, you soon will, the guy is going to be a superstar.

Everything in his arsenal to be a Premier League striker.

Great in the air, strong, awesome first touch, skilful and lethal in front of goal.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

And to top it off a manager who seems to be coveted by nearly half the Premier League.

What's not to like?

Why now?

Simple maths.

I make them 1/3 to make the playoffs.

They will be circa 5/2 in the playoffs.. (I'd make them jollies above Palace, Forest, Hull and Leicester - but that's another matter)

Which means they should be about 7/2 to get promoted (and we even have a 1% chance of going up automatically).

I'm afraid I took the last the last of the 5/1, but Ladbrokes are still 9/2 and that is simply the wrong price.

I recommend £300 on Brighton to get promoted, but to lay off half if and when we make the playoffs. (In effect we are having 2 bets - 1 to make the playoffs and one to win the playoffs)

Get on.

[tikay]

Keith,

LOVE IT.

We are on, but I'm too rushed right now to Post Details, I'll do that tomorrow.

Looking forward to a tremendous 4 or 5 week (?) sweat.

When do we start the Brighton Sweat?

Tonightttttttttttttttttttt

[adnmdv]

<Brighton>

Can't agree with them being favs above Leicester+Hull (certainly don't think Asia which is shrewder than you or I would agree either). Prob marginal favs over Forest and bigger favs over Palace. Also would be dogs vs Watford. Made them 4/1 overall promotion so there is still prob some value in the 9/2.

[BigAdz]

I was cursing yesterday. First proper meeting Ive had to attend at work for a year.

Thank you work!


Now, Brighton. Thats a bet I can handle. GL Camel

[The Camel]

<Brighton>

Can't agree with them being favs above Leicester+Hull (certainly don't think Asia which is shrewder than you or I would agree either). Prob marginal favs over Forest and bigger favs over Palace. Also would be dogs vs Watford. Made them 4/1 overall promotion so there is still prob some value in the 9/2.

Rapidly coming to the conclusion Leicester are the Liverpool of the Championship.

Consistently over rated on Asian Handicaps imo.

And I'm saying this being an admirer of several of their players and I backed them earlier in the season for the title outright.

[adnmdv]

They're obviously not the side they were during late 2012 but that's been reflected in the market's rating of them. They were certainly rated far far higher during their good run than they are now. Do think they have been somewhat better than their results alone suggest as well.

[rfgqqabc]

Dubai I don't mean to be critical here, but your staking seems  off. My dad had 3 of these races sunday and 4 yesterday. Why pick this one to go after? Surely the Channing route of smaller stakes and doubles/trebles is the more effective route to take. There may be a touch of aftertiming and its absolutely brutal for all 3 not to place of course. I feel like the San Marino Goalscorers and others along those lines (the 5 places at Cheltenham) etc are better bets and weren't staked as big as those 3. I wish Fred had won so my point would be taken on better and ofc Tikay/you/me/everyone hadn't had lost. I typically love your aggressive stakes and Tikay has certainly needed a push in that direction at times, but it just seemed a bit off when you can find *good/ok e/w races most days. I do hope Hills don't limit accounts now, that would be a real kick in the teeth. Gutted for Fred.

*Obviously the margins are good in this race, and it is hard for all 3 to lose, but £100each ways are very big for a 5k roll.


edit: This would also go with what redarmi says imo, but feel free to message an imploite **** you if you want though, this post should have perhaps waited for tomorrow.

Dont worry i wont take offence, big enough and brave enough to stand by it etc and face any consequences

Thought roll was 6k. Losing 10% of roll 4% of time or whatever it is, (havent worked it out) seems completely fine to me given every bet was really good.

I suggested more on the football than this, its obv not my fault if fred cant get on, and freds roll was smaller then so i suggested using a lot larger % of it than this. I think i quoted at one point, no number could be high enough on the football bets. Im obv a far more aggressive punter than some, but think a massive problem people have is not pushing decent edges enough, and when our roll increases so should our bets because its based on a % of the roll, not what we "feel comfortable" with.

Id be astonished if there was 3 of "these races" Sunday and 4 yesterday. Not every 8/9 runner race makes the place parts massively +Ev, the races you are talking about were much smaller margins. This is the best "play" race ive seen in a while, given the 1/2 fav, exactly 8 runners after one pulled out and 3 runners quoted at 50s+ on bf and i think 2 were treble figures.

I actually backed the 5th fav ew as well, which also didnt place. Making it a very impressive result for me lol

If Hills ever limits freds account solely based on this bet, il put any bet anyone wants on for fred with Hills

Each way doubles/trebles are worse account closers than betting multiple selections each way in the same race. I like the idea of aggressively taking multiple each way bets in the same race as it considerably lowers variance given its hard for them all not to place etc, and every bet is +ev.

Didn't want you to think I was some tart complaining about the bets because they lost. There were some solid races Monday certainly. One was 40s bar top 3. I think I just underestimated the edge from this and slightly overestimated the edge from others, which makes a lot of sense. Completely agree about the overall staking side, and I was perhaps results orientated with them all blanking out this time. Thanks for your time taken to respond mate. The point about account closing makes sense, this might be a way of getting around the dirty bets in a shop, but probably wouldn't matter at your stake size.

[Dubai]

Funnily enough the maths suggests that the losing bets on the 3rd and 4th favs were better value than any of the first gscorers.

Overall the maths also suggests the fgs bets were only marginally better, it just happened that everyone of them won and we also got the fgs itself which is the massive part

Think Noble Ben was nearly under our price at the off on the win part, and we got 14/5 the place when I think it was around 13/8 at the off- staggering value but someone can obv check the prices as I didnt see the very last price

[DungBeetle]

hmmm - not sure about the Brighton price.  I like the team, but if we are making them 5/2 in the playoffs how are we pricing the other runners?

Hornets are beating Hull at half time but don't want to put a jinx on it so lets say the other crew are:

Watford
Palace
Forest

And lets say for sake of argument it is Brighton v Palace and Watford v Forest in the semis.

[Doobs]

 What is the current max bet?

[Tal]

Think it's set at £150 at present

[anthonyl]

Hope you held off on the Brighton bets, looked like our whole side have not slept for a few days.

We have 6 points from the last 6. Out of form!

[mondatoo]

What price would we be tempted to get involved in Bayern at ?

Nudge nudge wink wink.

4/6 @ Boyles seems close to me ?

Marvellous.

[tikay]

Click to see full-size image.

They've got the best goalkeeper in the Championship




The best fullback

Click to see full-size image.

The best centre back



The best holding midfielder



The best creative midfielder





And to top it off, the Colin Kaepernick of the Championship.

If you haven't heard of Leonardo Ulloa yet, you soon will, the guy is going to be a superstar.

Everything in his arsenal to be a Premier League striker.

Great in the air, strong, awesome first touch, skilful and lethal in front of goal.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

Click to see full-size image.

And to top it off a manager who seems to be coveted by nearly half the Premier League.

What's not to like?

Why now?

Simple maths.

I make them 1/3 to make the playoffs.

They will be circa 5/2 in the playoffs.. (I'd make them jollies above Palace, Forest, Hull and Leicester - but that's another matter)

Which means they should be about 7/2 to get promoted (and we even have a 1% chance of going up automatically).

I'm afraid I took the last the last of the 5/1, but Ladbrokes are still 9/2 and that is simply the wrong price.

I recommend £300 on Brighton to get promoted, but to lay off half if and when we make the playoffs. (In effect we are having 2 bets - 1 to make the playoffs and one to win the playoffs)Get on.

Thanks Keith.

As promised last night, confirmation of the bet is below.

We first need to reach the Playoffs, then please remind me that we need to do lay off of 50%, as part of the bet rationale.

Good luck, hoping for a great sweat with this.

We have £300 @ 9/2, Ladbrokes, Brighton to be Promoted. 50% to be laid off when we reach the Playoffs.

ON


02/04/2013 GBP 300.00 Single: BRIGHTON AND HOVE ALBION @ 9/2 
Betid 30880334900 Time: 18:59 Bet Type: Single Stake: £ 300.00 
EVENT  SELECTION  PRICE  E/W TERMS  STATUS 
To Be Promoted Championship Specials
To Be Promoted - Specials
Brighton and Hove Albion  9/2  Win only  Unsettled 

[tikay]

What price would we be tempted to get involved in Bayern at ?

Nudge nudge wink wink.

4/6 @ Boyles seems close to me ?

Marvellous.

[fc.z;rf
];
]z;g]
zgr

Sorry Ray, yesterday was such a rush for me, I had so much on my plate, plus we were busy organising a right coup here, that I missed your suggestion. Which of course won handsomely. varianbce has kicked in, overdue & as expected, big time.