Tips for Tikay

[bobby1]

Some interesting posts from some of the thread elders over the past 24 hours.

One point I would pick up is Phil's frustration with Doobs's mathematical picks taking up a lot of a 'portfolio'. Surely if someone suggests 4 bets, as thread don Tikay would be right to ask which is the best bet of these and go with that one. Also it makes sense to say x, y and z are Doobs's mathematical picks, anyone got any info on these/any fancies that makes one a better bet than the others? I don't think u can 'blame' Doobs for putting up a number of bets, but as the boss Tikay can put on all, none or some of them, and maybe backing them all gives too much exposure to one person's thinking.

Lastly, Phil if u disagree with a bet put up by another elder, which presumably doesn't happen that often, but means the bet is already on before canvassing opinion, I don't think anyone would be offended if u said 'I know you've backed x on Doobs's advice Tony but I really fancy laying that horse for this reason' and allow a discussion post bet but before the event (or even Tony to insta change the bet so Fred has no exposure to it because of the diff of opinion). With Betfair, we can always get out of a bet at probably a 1%ish loss if  we decide it possibly wasn't the best bet.

I have to admit whenever anyone includes phrases like 'I haven't even looked at this in detail' or the like I put that post in the category of the guys who come on saying why not back my team today, they're defo gonna win, not sure of the price'. They may well be right but there's far better researched bets I can take from here so I read em and keep an eye on the result but don't back em.

I have really enjoyed the mathematical basis stuff, it's not something I've really considered before, and while it spots +ev bets, combining it with knowledge sounds an even better idea

Hi Jeff,

If that had happened before the GN then we could probably have had a discussion between us as to the merits but the bets were actioned str8 away which didn't leave any option (that isn't Doob's mistake tho it is Tony's). I mean I could still have put up the match bet against IC and let it stand as a separate bet, maybe that was the mistake I made in not just doing that but once the original ew bets are placed it's going to look strange if we then bet directly against one of them.

If Tony had posted saying, I see we can bet 6 places in the National lets see if we can find a few outsiders to bet each way then between us we might have got a more refined list and taken into account more things than just looking at the BF market is what I was trying to say.

I tried not to mention that I backed the winner in this discussion but I cant really use this example and not say it. I tipped up Tofino Bay ew NRNB on here and when it was clear it wouldn't run we just got the money back. Off thread I suggested another horse to Tony that was a similar bet, ie we were betting non runner no bet and if it got in the race it would be much shorter than the price we were taking and we were getting 6 places, it was Poker De Sivola at 66/1 who was right on the cusp of getting into the race. I went out that day and did my things and when I came back the trainer had said it wouldn't run even if it got in the race (which it would have done in the end)

So no probs we get our money back and I didn't need to put it up on the thread as a bet. On Saturday morning I backed Auroras Encore and mentioned that on the Grand National thread later. So in an open look at betting horses in the GN we might have found the winner if it had been open to suggestions but it wasn't. I deffo wouldn't have put it up as a thread bet on its own because it was a punt at a big price, but if we had been looking to bet several each way I might have put it up then. What made me even sicker is Tony didn't back it, it was the only suggestion I mentioned in the race that he didn't back, the worry is he didn't back it because he had already had his personal quota of bets on the race with the ones already suggested.

Obv it might have just got the knock back anyway if we had gone thru it between us but that days figures could have played out so differently. what I think were the mistakes made that day might have cost us a few quid at the weekend too in the Masters bets that didn't get actioned. So I'm not bringing the GN up to just have a go at Doobs because he was the one who was on the other end at the weekend, it was just an example I saw of a situation that we were again going to be getting into with the world snooker suggestions.

[bobby1]

Lay the win parts off, they are nearly always the worst part of the bet even if +ev and are also higher variance than the place part

That would be a good option for sure.

[redarmi]

Don't want to add much to this debate but one thing I would say is that Betfair is only really a liquid market up to a point.  Everyone on Betfair pays commission albeit at different levels and it is wrong to take a Betfair midpoint even in a tight market as the "correct price".  Lets say, for example, the Arsenal game tonight.  There is good money on both sides.  You can back Arsenal @ 1.76 or lay them at 1.77 so the temptation is to say that the correct price is 1.765 but actually nobody can bet at 1.76 they can bet at 1.76 minus commission (of between 2 and 5%) so realistically they are probably able to bet at 1.73 (assuming 4% commish) or lay at 1.80 so the correct price could be anywhere in that range and that is assuming that the market is perfect etc.  Personally I think that you should have your own margin for error anyway in the region of 3-4% so if we are using the lazy-ish approach of just assuming Betfair is right then I would probably want something in the region of 5/6 before betting Arsenal tonight even though the correct price according to the midpoint is 1.765.  That probably happens with the priority offers but maybe not as much as we think and possibly our staking isn't totally correct on them.

[Dubai]

Plus we bound to get some added amusement when Tikay has laid the wrong horse etc. Cant put a price on morale

[bobby1]

How do we feel about completely separating the priority offer bets from the regular thread fund?

Neil says we should bet them all if they meet certain criteria but I think it was clear at the weekend that the amount of cash Tony put on these priority bets altered the way that other suggestions were dealt with. Doobs can rightly be a bit miffed that his selections were not placed in full before the event and his selections during the event were not actioned ( the biggest mistake that fixed odds firms make imo is not understanding the place part of the prices when they are simply copying BF win market in running and this is more relevant the further into the event) did we kinda shut up shop due to the amount we had in play pre game on priority selections?

If we go down that route then the priority offers have a roll of their own and don't even appear in the actual thread roll numbers. It's like running two systems at once I guess.

The one issue there might be that we place a priority bet and someone actually wants to put that selection up against their name on the thread roll too. Maybe we can find a way to make that bit work.

I suggested this a couple of months ago.

Definitely the way forward imo.

I think you had spotted the way it was going well before it got there.

[redarmi]

Oh one more thing to add.  We should definitely have an upper limit on amount of exposure to one event.  i would suggest 5% and staking should, therefore, be disproportionately smaller if we expect to fire a few bullets.

[The Camel]

While you should obviously be having these bets such as the Fly at 3./1, do we really think they should be counted for Fred's P/L?

I mean, the bookmaker knows they are giving away equity and we are taking the free moniez.

But it isn't REAL gambling, is it?

(Just thinking out loud, don't expect anyone to agree!)

Found it.

[bobby1]

What difference does it make other than some weird pyscholigical one?? It's still the same pot of money so why would anyone care if its on a different spreadsheet etc??

I was going to ask this but decided not too but whilst it's mentioned, why do bets "off account" happen too?  The idea of the thread was to get Tikay back into sports betting but you've got him keeping different sets of accounts and betting off thread.  Money is money at the end of the day, what difference does it matter what pot it comes out of?  Why not put the off thread bets down to Tikay?

well I think it is just that some bets are much stronger than others, if Tony bets something of his own off thread it shouldn't be put in if it is just a marginal call. Likewise I have passed bets on to Tony that I thought were only ok and he has prob had a few quid on those. I suppose it gets back to the original plan of the thread in that we were going to refine Tony's betting into something better than he remembered before we forced him off the wagon so the thread bets were supposed to be something better than just ok bets.

[Dubai]

I see no logical reason or argument why they shouldn't count, and still don't even after reading it back. I think Redarmi is probably correct about them being mis-staked but can't see why they really require any analysis of discussion as to their merits

[TightEnd]

Oh one more thing to add.  We should definitely have an upper limit on amount of exposure to one event.  i would suggest 5% and staking should, therefore, be disproportionately smaller if we expect to fire a few bullets.

and, another thing

if there is an upper limit exposure to a multi day event where, if as bobby1 says, fixed odds guys are often going to be neglecting e/w value, lets keep some powder dry for the latter stages of events please?

this was painful to watch last Sunday morning

[Dubai]

That was to Camel btw

I get his argument over it not being real gambling and the majority of the offers people post on here are of no interest to me as limits so low and can't get on etc, but for Tikays stakes they are invaluable

[bobby1]

Plus we bound to get some added amusement when Tikay has laid the wrong horse etc. Cant put a price on morale

haha too good, the day he loses the roll by inputting 14.5 instead of 4.5 we can all say what a bad idea it was.

[Dubai]

Oh one more thing to add.  We should definitely have an upper limit on amount of exposure to one event.  i would suggest 5% and staking should, therefore, be disproportionately smaller if we expect to fire a few bullets.

and, another thing

if there is an upper limit exposure to a multi day event where, if as bobby1 says, fixed odds guys are often going to be neglecting e/w value, lets keep some powder dry for the latter stages of events please?

this was painful to watch last Sunday morning

Who suggested we had too many bets? It's just completely incorrect. Some of the stuff was already a loser anyway, so just bet again within the confines of the new notional bankroll taking into account the losers and equity of our outstanding bets. It really isn't that hard. I personally think the 5% thing is a little low particularly when it's spread across a variety of stuff whose results directly affect the other meaning we are incredibly unlikely to lose every bet on every market so realistically our exposure isn't as high as suggested

[horseplayer]

i did post something re imperial commander bobby i am pretty sure before the bet had been placed that i really did not fancy it one  bit and did not believe the quotes from the trainer and the fact it was an afterthought

there is nothing very clever about not fancying a horse at that price and the bet was still placed as doobs has one of the top roi's and rightly gives him auto bet status

[bobby1]

I see no logical reason or argument why they shouldn't count, and still don't even after reading it back. I think Redarmi is probably correct about them being mis-staked but can't see why they really require any analysis of discussion as to their merits

it isn't the bets that need to be looked at tho Dave, well not on most occasions. it is the way future bets on the same events have been looked at 'because we already have xxx amount invested on the event'

If we just say the priority tab will look after itself profit/loss wise then we can still have a fresh/different set of bets on the thread roll. It was just a thought tho.