Tips for Tikay

[The Camel]

That was to Camel btw

I get his argument over it not being real gambling and the majority of the offers people post on here are of no interest to me as limits so low and can't get on etc, but for Tikays stakes they are invaluable

It's like finding money up in the street.

Yes, of course you will pick it up if you can, but would you include in your yearly tax returns as money earned?

I thought the Masters had a great betting shape on Sunday. I thought the players 2+ back were massively underpriced, and with ew terms available betting the players in the last two groups ew was massively +ev.

The fact Fred was massively overexposed betting on offers meant it couldn't justify betting on a decent spot of Sunday.

That shouldn't happen imo.

[Snowball]

Does anyone know where Hills take their stats for the IPL, I was on under 37.5 Boundaries, Cricinfo have it as 37 but it's been given as a loser?

[TightEnd]

Oh one more thing to add.  We should definitely have an upper limit on amount of exposure to one event.  i would suggest 5% and staking should, therefore, be disproportionately smaller if we expect to fire a few bullets.

and, another thing

if there is an upper limit exposure to a multi day event where, if as bobby1 says, fixed odds guys are often going to be neglecting e/w value, lets keep some powder dry for the latter stages of events please?

this was painful to watch last Sunday morning

Who suggested we had too many bets? It's just completely incorrect. Some of the stuff was already a loser anyway, so just bet again within the confines of the new notional bankroll taking into account the losers and equity of our outstanding bets. It really isn't that hard. I personally think the 5% thing is a little low particularly when it's spread across a variety of stuff whose results directly affect the other meaning we are incredibly unlikely to lose every bet on every market so realistically our exposure isn't as high as suggested

read back Sunday. really good looking e/w bets on Sunday ahead of the last round were not actioned because of the hole the thread was in, whether implicitiy or explicitly

the priorities/maths stuff was, with hindsight, over-prioritised (no pun intended) leaving tikay reluctant to don the betting boots again. Not saying thats correct, just what I saw happening

[bobby1]

Oh one more thing to add.  We should definitely have an upper limit on amount of exposure to one event.  i would suggest 5% and staking should, therefore, be disproportionately smaller if we expect to fire a few bullets.

and, another thing

if there is an upper limit exposure to a multi day event where, if as bobby1 says, fixed odds guys are often going to be neglecting e/w value, lets keep some powder dry for the latter stages of events please?

this was painful to watch last Sunday morning

I haven't properly read back that far as I was obv super busy that day but I think we are making a mistake if we don't use the fact that Tony might have felt he had overbet pre event to have further bets that in truth were less volatile at that stage of the event.

[Dubai]

Who said it was overexposed? I wouldn't have suggested that at all, I'd have said each bet placed is basically irrelevant of others, should be looked at in its own entirety and treated as such. If it was a good bet it should be placed regardless of previous losses on the current market as long as its within our bankroll, which as I've said I think is too low at 5% per market when our position is spread so widely and as such we are going to brick such a small % of the time- eg that horse race where we are 1.03 to not brick

[Dubai]

Oh one more thing to add.  We should definitely have an upper limit on amount of exposure to one event.  i would suggest 5% and staking should, therefore, be disproportionately smaller if we expect to fire a few bullets.

and, another thing

if there is an upper limit exposure to a multi day event where, if as bobby1 says, fixed odds guys are often going to be neglecting e/w value, lets keep some powder dry for the latter stages of events please?

this was painful to watch last Sunday morning

Who suggested we had too many bets? It's just completely incorrect. Some of the stuff was already a loser anyway, so just bet again within the confines of the new notional bankroll taking into account the losers and equity of our outstanding bets. It really isn't that hard. I personally think the 5% thing is a little low particularly when it's spread across a variety of stuff whose results directly affect the other meaning we are incredibly unlikely to lose every bet on every market so realistically our exposure isn't as high as suggested

read back Sunday. really good looking e/w bets on Sunday ahead of the last round were not actioned because of the hole the thread was in, whether implicitiy or explicitly

the priorities/maths stuff was, with hindsight, over-prioritised (no pun intended) leaving tikay reluctant to don the betting boots again. Not saying thats correct, just what I saw happening

They are really good looking each way bets because the maths behind them. Lets not pretend we heard Jason Day had been driving really well Sunday 6am on the range etc

[The Camel]

Who said it was overexposed? I wouldn't have suggested that at all, I'd have said each bet placed is basically irrelevant of others, should be looked at in its own entirety and treated as such. If it was a good bet it should be placed regardless of previous losses on the current market as long as its within our bankroll, which as I've said I think is too low at 5% per market when our position is spread so widely and as such we are going to brick such a small % of the time- eg that horse race where we are 1.03 to not brick

If Tikay didn't implicitly say he was overexposed, he certainly implied it.

[TightEnd]

No one is going to say "we are over-exposed" pre-event. Fact of the matter is that by the time Sunday came along, and the opportunities The Camel is talking about were presented, the  person doing the betting baulked at doing so, came across in every post.

(tikay can correct me if I am wrong)

[Dubai]

Sunday morning each way bets because bookies are going favourable place terms compared to normal are maths bets. And obviously should have been placed if they were that favourable

[Dubai]

Tikay always thinks we are over exposed, I always think we are under exposed so somewhere between the two is probably about right

[Doobs]

Oh one more thing to add.  We should definitely have an upper limit on amount of exposure to one event.  i would suggest 5% and staking should, therefore, be disproportionately smaller if we expect to fire a few bullets.

and, another thing

if there is an upper limit exposure to a multi day event where, if as bobby1 says, fixed odds guys are often going to be neglecting e/w value, lets keep some powder dry for the latter stages of events please?

this was painful to watch last Sunday morning

Who suggested we had too many bets? It's just completely incorrect. Some of the stuff was already a loser anyway, so just bet again within the confines of the new notional bankroll taking into account the losers and equity of our outstanding bets. It really isn't that hard. I personally think the 5% thing is a little low particularly when it's spread across a variety of stuff whose results directly affect the other meaning we are incredibly unlikely to lose every bet on every market so realistically our exposure isn't as high as suggested

read back Sunday. really good looking e/w bets on Sunday ahead of the last round were not actioned because of the hole the thread was in, whether implicitiy or explicitly

the priorities/maths stuff was, with hindsight, over-prioritised (no pun intended) leaving tikay reluctant to don the betting boots again. Not saying thats correct, just what I saw happening

I think this must have been Saturday.  I think the bookies were e/w first 4 at the time.  By Sunday they were quarter first 3 or no e/w at all.  My memory is frequently terrible though.

[TightEnd]

Oh one more thing to add.  We should definitely have an upper limit on amount of exposure to one event.  i would suggest 5% and staking should, therefore, be disproportionately smaller if we expect to fire a few bullets.

and, another thing

if there is an upper limit exposure to a multi day event where, if as bobby1 says, fixed odds guys are often going to be neglecting e/w value, lets keep some powder dry for the latter stages of events please?

this was painful to watch last Sunday morning

Who suggested we had too many bets? It's just completely incorrect. Some of the stuff was already a loser anyway, so just bet again within the confines of the new notional bankroll taking into account the losers and equity of our outstanding bets. It really isn't that hard. I personally think the 5% thing is a little low particularly when it's spread across a variety of stuff whose results directly affect the other meaning we are incredibly unlikely to lose every bet on every market so realistically our exposure isn't as high as suggested

read back Sunday. really good looking e/w bets on Sunday ahead of the last round were not actioned because of the hole the thread was in, whether implicitiy or explicitly

the priorities/maths stuff was, with hindsight, over-prioritised (no pun intended) leaving tikay reluctant to don the betting boots again. Not saying thats correct, just what I saw happening

They are really good looking each way bets because the maths behind them. Lets not pretend we heard Jason Day had been driving really well Sunday 6am on the range etc

I'm agreeing with you, and Keith, and others....!

Portfolio optimisation required on these multi day events.

What is the bank pre? What is the allocation pre? What do we want for mid event betting etc?

therefore you have full scope to adjust the exposure as you go along

can't just put the lot on pre and when great stuff emerges because of shapes of books after three rounds implicitly say "no more"

[cheapwetsuit]

Does anyone know where Hills take their stats for the IPL, I was on under 37.5 Boundaries, Cricinfo have it as 37 but it's been given as a loser?

Adding the boundaries together from the scoreboard on cricinfo, I make it 38

[redarmi]

Actually in retrospect 5% is too low.  Maybe 10% would be a better figure as each bet reduces variance whilst also increasing exposure.  It is slightly different when they are each way bets too.  I think that there is a very real argument that getting 10% of your roll exposed to soem of the place portion of these each ways steals in the racing is perfectly justified.

[Dubai]

No one is going to say "we are over-exposed" pre-event. Fact of the matter is that by the time Sunday came along, and the opportunities The Camel is talking about were presented, the  person doing the betting baulked at doing so, came across in every post.

(tikay can correct me if I am wrong)

He probably baulked if not many people stated how good a bet they were. If they were that good then surely everyone could have gave him a nudge