Tips for Tikay

[Dubai]

It's only my reply because its the only correct one, sorry

And I'm a far more gambler gambler than you'd think, I give loads of -ev action, I just know its -ev unlike most and don't care as its fun.

This is just a teaching thread really so have to teach people the correct way even if dont always do it myself

[doubleup]

The player without the momentum is more likely to be value in a playoff IMO as markets generally overestimate this importance and under estimate the essentials ie Scott being a better player. 10/11 11/10 seemed to slightly underestimate Scott IMO, but its only an opinion and definitely not fact

If he had bet originally on Betfair the hedge would def have been fine as the book was very liquid -  but I can't ever see it being right to back with a fixed odds book and pay 5% commission to hedge.

[atdc21]

yeah must admit i follow thread fairly regular, some good bits of info on here.

[Tal]

I still fancy winning both bets. The Chelsea Spurs match will probably be key

When's Bale due back?

Expected to be back in training towards the end of this week, so might play on Sunday. That was the last I heard, anyway. No news on the Spurs website about him. Same for Lennon and Gallas BTW.

Sorry. Had the evening off blonde and return to 10 pages!

[BigAdz]

Chompy bump to remind us before next game please. I'l chase Swanson till he scores

Oh my word. How can an elder post such things.

No knowledge of markets, liquidity, value etc. shame on you....lol

[Dubai]

He gotta score sometime Martingale to keep the accounts alive. Everyone's happy

[redarmi]

Hi Camel and Dubai (and badbeat) i know we have gone down the laying off route over and over , everyone will have their own opinions of what they want from bets and returns etc.
I fully understand that a lot of layed off bets (esp in running ,as most are) you think you are getting the worst of it ,BUT try looking at it like this (just to humour me if nothing else)
if say we back a horse at 10/1 for £100 before the race,  in running 3 out it is going really well and it is 2/1, if in reality (or other peoples opinions) it should be 6/4 by giving someone 2/1 it appears we have given away value, which in a way we have BUT if we lay say £50 at 2/1 our position is we stand to win £900 for £50 (thus giving us 18/1) so although the bet we have just made is -EV in itself, it has given us a bigger % value bet than before the race(but for a lesser amount of money total) at that time.
Hope you can work thru my waffle, i do struggle to get my thoughts into words when typing usually , but as we say 2 sides to a coin etc.   Nits gonna Nit lol .

What happens if the horse is 3 clear going over the last and you can lay it at 5/1 for £99.  That would mean you would have a quid @ 500/1 that would be an amazing pre race bet but I am sure you can see what is wrong in this example.  The only difference between the two examples though is the degrees!

[Dubai]

Obv joking but chances are if the books underrated a players chances in this market then its about 1/100 they do so again As long as A) he hasn't scored b) there hasn't been a huge move for him or c) he's changed positions. So basically if he was value tonight he will probably be value until he scores

It's not a market they put much research or effort into, just stick it in a computer and adjust depending on the teams win price. And no betfair markets for them to compare, if the original bet is +ev then it's probably actually correct to back him till he scores (which is when prices start getting looked at)

[The Camel]

Hedging on horse racing inrunning is almost always wrong.

You are playing against people who will have faster pictures (or at the track).

If you put up a bet you will only get matched if you are having bad value.

[redarmi]

Obv joking but chances are if the books underrated a players chances in this market then its about 1/100 they do so again As long as A) he hasn't scored b) there hasn't been a huge move for him or c) he's changed positions. So basically if he was value tonight he will probably be value until he scores

It's not a market they put much research or effort into, just stick it in a computer and adjust depending on the teams win price. And no betfair markets for them to compare, if the original bet is +ev then it's probably actually correct to back him till he scores (which is when prices start getting looked at)

This.  There are very few markets these days where you can get 20/1 about true 10/1 shots but first goalscorers are one especially in minor games.  There are a couple of people I know of that make a decent living doing that alone.

[Bad Beat]

 The answers given here by Dubai, The Camel and Redarmi on hedging, (particularly on horse-racing in-running), are totally correct. They are not opinions but facts.

 You can ignore them if you prefer to but I fail to see how you can call making bad ev decisions over and over fun.

[tikay]

The answers given here by Dubai, The Camel and Redarmi on hedging, (particularly on horse-racing in-running), are totally correct. They are not opinions but facts.

 You can ignore them if you prefer to but I fail to see how you can call making bad ev decisions over and over fun.

I still enjoy playing poker.

[Simon Galloway]

Never ever seen a sharp poker player make repeated -ev decisions for fun.

[Tal]

The answers given here by Dubai, The Camel and Redarmi on hedging, (particularly on horse-racing in-running), are totally correct. They are not opinions but facts.

 You can ignore them if you prefer to but I fail to see how you can call making bad ev decisions over and over fun.

I still enjoy playing poker.

Most people bet with the mentality that the amount of enjoyment they derive from it is greater than the EV they are losing.

Hence why people play slot machines or roulette. People don't honestly believe they are beating them.

Fred, for the most part, has a good balance between super-smart value-gobbling and punt-related fun. He can't make a profit without more of the former, but he'll likely get bored (or run out if places to bet) if he doesn't dabble in the dark arts of -EV

[doubleup]

Hedging on horse racing inrunning is almost always wrong.

You are playing against people who will have faster pictures (or at the track).

If you put up a bet you will only get matched if you are having bad value.

I've got a database of Betfair prices.  In the case of the example - back at 10-1 and lay at 2-1 - the lay gets matched 1243 times and wins 471 times.  So you pay out 1413 and take in 1243.  If you spent all day doing that you would be the biggest mug on betfair.