Tips for Tikay

[tikay]

World Championship Snooker

Below is our current portfiolio. We have incurred around £6 of losses so far.

Jack Lisowski, £3 @ 100/1

Judd Trump £50 @ 8/1

Mark Selby, £50 @ 13/2, MONEY BACK IF RONNIE WINS.

could bobby1 clarify if he wanted Robertson to be in here please? I beleive he did several hundred pages ago, and price is unmoved


as to the draw

if it ran to seeds, which it won't

Ronnie v Higgins
Murphy v Trump
Robertson v Maguire
Allen v Selby. Ding is also in this quarter

are the quarters

Robertson is a nice counterpoint in the draw to being on Trump and (I think tikay is) Ronnie, but equally we don't want to be covering the top 4 in an efficient market, offers aside
My ideas of winning qualifiers in the first round are

Holt over Walden
Fu over Stevens
Baird over Bingham
Gould over Murphy
Lisowski over Hawkins

Looking for comfortably above evens on any to get involved
 

Yes, we need bobby's view on the Snooker, he is pretty close to the game. I don't recall him mentioning Robertson, but I do know he is very hot on Ronnie.

I am on Ronnie myself at slightly better than 7/1, (thanks to good advice) & would definitely top up on weakness. If his head is mended, he will win this doing......

Click to see full-size image.

[TightEnd]

"we don't want to be covering the top 4 in an efficient market, offers aside"

I was agreeing with Doobs, hence the "offers aside" caveat. Selby is a seperate maths bet, right?

[Doobs]

"we don't want to be covering the top 4 in an efficient market, offers aside"

I was agreeing with Doobs, hence the "offers aside" caveat. Selby is a seperate maths bet, right?

I must not skim read.  I must not skim read. I must not skim read.

[Bazzaboy]

Brian Rose v Joachim Alcine

I think we should be having a bet on Rose by Decision at 9/4 (use Boyles and not Lads as you have Technical Decision on your side as well.  Rose has cleaned up at domestic level and this is a step up in class for him. Alcine was blown away in a round by Matt Macklin in September, hence why Rose stoppage is odds on here. However Macklin is a completely different proposition to Rose. Macklin is a big punching middleweight on the fringes of world class, whereas Rose is a light punching light-middleweight at British level. He has only stopped 6 of his 22 victims. Alcine has been stopped twice before but again both were big punchers (Santos and Angulo), and he has gone the distance with big punchers in the past so there is no trouble with his chin per se, however he is old and may now be shot to pieces, in which case we lose. At 9/4 I'm happy we are on the right side here. Recommend £40.

I have my eye on a couple of other fights at the weekend which are not priced up yet so may be more to follow.

[Doobs]

Think if my memory is right, we have to scratch one from the spreadsheet

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8644985/black-caviar-retired

The seven-year-old bows out with a record of 25 wins in as many starts, including 15 victories at the highest level.
 
Black Caviar claimed her final victory in the TJ Smith Stakes at Randwick last Saturday.
 
Moody told news.com.au: "(The) Owners and myself had a long chat over the last couple of days and at lunchtime today we decided 25 was a great number to go out on."

A very special racing record that.

Edit.  Just found the spreadsheet, and no record of the bet on it winning at Ascot.   Guess we must have swerved good. 

[tikay]

Brian Rose v Joachim Alcine

I think we should be having a bet on Rose by Decision at 9/4 (use Boyles and not Lads as you have Technical Decision on your side as well.  Rose has cleaned up at domestic level and this is a step up in class for him. Alcine was blown away in a round by Matt Macklin in September, hence why Rose stoppage is odds on here. However Macklin is a completely different proposition to Rose. Macklin is a big punching middleweight on the fringes of world class, whereas Rose is a light punching light-middleweight at British level. He has only stopped 6 of his 22 victims. Alcine has been stopped twice before but again both were big punchers (Santos and Angulo), and he has gone the distance with big punchers in the past so there is no trouble with his chin per se, however he is old and may now be shot to pieces, in which case we lose. At 9/4 I'm happy we are on the right side here. Recommend £40.

I have my eye on a couple of other fights at the weekend which are not priced up yet so may be more to follow.

Gotcha Bazza, thanks.

We have £40 @ 9/4, Boylesports, Rose by Decision or Technical Decision

ON

           
Bet receipt
All bets have been placed. Thank you and good luck.
.
Single
Bet ref: 84/82 Rose, Brian By Decision Or Technical Decision @ 9/4
Joachim Alcine v Brian Rose
Method Of Victory
Total stake £40.00
Estimated return £130.00
Full stake £40.00
Full estimated return £130.00

 
 

[bobby1]

'''Because of the fact that the Selby price on BetVictor is very close to the Betfair price there is reasonable chance the BetVictor price could disappear soon.

I think people have been given enough time to improve on this bet, and AFAIK nobody has taken up the challenge.

I think it is time to stop all the discussion around the intricacies of this bet, and just snap up the free £5 in long term EV on offer before it is too late.'''



Mate, are you being serious here or just unaware of the rec I made 2 weeks ago?

Just to refresh if the later is the case I made a case for  backing Ronnie at 7/1, including why it was going to be value and how I expected the market to move.
This was given the thumbs down by people guessing and asking why we needed to build a portfolio (there were already several bets on the event)
So would you run the math on how much EV we have with £50 at 7/1 instead of the price he is now?

The challenge is not to find a better bet than the one you have put up, it should have been to find a better bet than the one I put up. Which you haven't done.

Anyway it is too late for the Ronnie bet and I told Tony this days ago when the market was moving the way I expected.

So instead of having a bet on a selection at a value price with reasoning(the whole ethos of the thread) we now have a 50 on a player at the right price that you selected by looking at the BF market and simply picking the one nearest to the VC prices.


I agree with you on one thing tho, you shouldn't skim read, esp when talking of challenges to find better bets than this one.

[tikay]

Think if my memory is right, we have to scratch one from the spreadsheet

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8644985/black-caviar-retired

The seven-year-old bows out with a record of 25 wins in as many starts, including 15 victories at the highest level.
 
Black Caviar claimed her final victory in the TJ Smith Stakes at Randwick last Saturday.
 
Moody told news.com.au: "(The) Owners and myself had a long chat over the last couple of days and at lunchtime today we decided 25 was a great number to go out on."

A very special racing record that.

Edit.  Just found the spreadsheet, and no record of the bet on it winning at Ascot.   Guess we must have swerved good. 

Chompy stuck the bet up, but by the time I had seen it (& double rebuffed him) the price had crashed something shocking, so we swerved it.

I think Chompy had £25,000 on, & Eso followed him in.

[bobby1]

Hi Rich,

I didn't put up Robertson, was just generally backing up your thoughts that he was the more solid option in the bottom half when the ones that don't follow snooker were wondering why you were trying to build a portfolio.

[bobby1]

I want to run this bet past you Tony as it clashes slightly with your current snooker WC bets.

Ronnie is drawn in the same half as Trump who you have a 50 on at 7 or 8/1 ish, Trumps quarter of that half is softer too (seed wise). The word on the street tho is that Ronnie is abs striping it in his practice and is knocking balls in for fun against three different practice partners that are all good solid pro's. What might be the most important thing is he is seemingly loving the game. His quarter of the top half looks tricky with Ali Carter his 2nd round oppo, followed by Higgins and then Trump should it run to seeding's ( obv it usually doesn't)

So he should really be getting bigger in the market after that draw but he is actually getting shorter, which makes me think that there are plenty of people now in the know about his apparent good form and mindset.

So I can only see his price contracting further from now, partly because of his practice news and the fact the punters will want to be on. He is also due to play his first match on the first day of the comp too so will again be well backed in the days leading to the event starting as all the talk will be about his return.

The only prob with putting him up as a bet is you will have a Trump and Ronnie outright bet and they are in the same part of the draw but you can bet 7/1 fixed odds and that is the price they are asking for on BF now. We are trusting the info is right but its pretty solid so if you don't mind backing two players at shortish odds that are in the same half of the draw then maybe a 50 at 7/1 would be ok. Obv your qualifiers could end up in the same part of the draw if they get there too.

As a footnote too, if anyone is thinking of backing Mark Selby then it might make sense to wait until nearer the event.

just in case you were unaware of the previous suggestion.

[BigAdz]

Think if my memory is right, we have to scratch one from the spreadsheet

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/article/465/8644985/black-caviar-retired

The seven-year-old bows out with a record of 25 wins in as many starts, including 15 victories at the highest level.
 
Black Caviar claimed her final victory in the TJ Smith Stakes at Randwick last Saturday.
 
Moody told news.com.au: "(The) Owners and myself had a long chat over the last couple of days and at lunchtime today we decided 25 was a great number to go out on."

A very special racing record that.

Edit.  Just found the spreadsheet, and no record of the bet on it winning at Ascot.   Guess we must have swerved good. 

Chompy stuck the bet up, but by the time I had seen it (& double rebuffed him) the price had crashed something shocking, so we swerved it.

I think Chompy had £25,000 on, & Eso followed him in.

Moi aussi. One day I will follow the right Chompy bet. Lets hope its that in that Euroshite thing.

[Doobs]

'''Because of the fact that the Selby price on BetVictor is very close to the Betfair price there is reasonable chance the BetVictor price could disappear soon.

I think people have been given enough time to improve on this bet, and AFAIK nobody has taken up the challenge.

I think it is time to stop all the discussion around the intricacies of this bet, and just snap up the free £5 in long term EV on offer before it is too late.'''



Mate, are you being serious here or just unaware of the rec I made 2 weeks ago?

Just to refresh if the later is the case I made a case for  backing Ronnie at 7/1, including why it was going to be value and how I expected the market to move.
This was given the thumbs down by people guessing and asking why we needed to build a portfolio (there were already several bets on the event)
So would you run the math on how much EV we have with £50 at 7/1 instead of the price he is now?

The challenge is not to find a better bet than the one you have put up, it should have been to find a better bet than the one I put up. Which you haven't done.

Anyway it is too late for the Ronnie bet and I told Tony this days ago when the market was moving the way I expected.

So instead of having a bet on a selection at a value price with reasoning(the whole ethos of the thread) we now have a 50 on a player at the right price that you selected by looking at the BF market and simply picking the one nearest to the VC prices.


I agree with you on one thing tho, you shouldn't skim read, esp when talking of challenges to find better bets than this one.

Sigh.  

I have never said a word on this thread about your O'Sullivan bet.  

I admit I once asked why we needed a porfolio to someone giving the reason for a possible bet as "for the portfolio" or similar.  That is all I did.  I am fairly sure it wasn't you.  

I once dragged up a couple of Aaron's losing bets, and admitted the next day I was out of line.  

If you want to hold me responsible for your bet not been taken, fine, I think we all get that now.

Seriously, this is getting absolutely ridiculous.  

You can do your thing, I can do my thing.  We even have separate spreadsheets for it now.

[atdc21]

Ah looks like i will be cutting out the laying off in running bets , funny old game, how something you think is doing you good isnt.

[Doobs]

If you fancy Ronnie then yes you can do both, portfolio innit. One wins, portfolio still up

I accept he may well be tearing up practice, but a year off from the pressure situations that you can get in close ones at the Crucible?

Lack of match practice will hurt him when it counts imo.

yes this is deffo a factor tho the way I looked at it was , if he had played in the last few events and you knew he was in good form and in the right place upstairs what price would he be then.

7/1 available fixed odds Tony if you wanted to bet, its better than taking the BF price with comm involved. Robertson does look the most solid start in the other half too.

Thanks Phil.

I just have to balance "how much on who", now.

PS - Bugger off, thought you were on holiday, lapping up the North Yorkshire Coast sunshine & basking on the beach?

So we have 7/4 the 3 of them plus another 4 or so at various prices.   What is the purpose of building a portfolio?  

and this must be the discussion you referred to.  If you follow the discussion down from this link, Tikay says he is adding them both to equal stakes a page later, I say nothing else. 

It seems the bets were never placed, how much of it is down to me, you can only speculate at, but it looks a lot less than 100%.  And as he has said numberous times, Tikay has a bet on O'Sullivan at over 7/1

I didn't say it was a bad bet, I simply asked a question which was never answered. 

Now can we let this go. 

[Doobs]

If you fancy Ronnie then yes you can do both, portfolio innit. One wins, portfolio still up

I accept he may well be tearing up practice, but a year off from the pressure situations that you can get in close ones at the Crucible?

Lack of match practice will hurt him when it counts imo.

yes this is deffo a factor tho the way I looked at it was , if he had played in the last few events and you knew he was in good form and in the right place upstairs what price would he be then.

7/1 available fixed odds Tony if you wanted to bet, its better than taking the BF price with comm involved. Robertson does look the most solid start in the other half too.

Thanks Phil.

I just have to balance "how much on who", now.

PS - Bugger off, thought you were on holiday, lapping up the North Yorkshire Coast sunshine & basking on the beach?

So we have 7/4 the 3 of them plus another 4 or so at various prices.   What is the purpose of building a portfolio?  

That's your problem Doobsy, you ask those blindingly obvious rhetoricals.

Robertson & Ronnies - the Two R's - will be added, for equal stakes.

And there is the declared bet, just in case people still think I am full of shit.