Tips for Tikay

[Bad Beat]

 I'm impressed that you have that double up. The numbers do not surprise me one bit.

 Obviously people can do what they want with their money and if people want to sit on the street corner setting light to £50 notes that is fine.

 I really wish they wouldn't try and sell the idea that this is some sort of successful gambling strategy that they have though. It is a leak and it should not be encouraged on a thread where a lot of people who may be not too experienced about sports gambling are trying to learn.

 I have a friend who is quite smart. He would not make my top 500 punters I know for being smart. He pays premium charge to Betfair as he has won £250,000+ on horses.

 He has access to faster ATR pictures than everyone else.

 He says thanks for greening out guys.

[MahoganyVic]

Whilst were on this topic, how much vig do companies like Hills charge on the cashout button?

I assume betfair just hooverup whatever best lays are available, but do hills take this piss one step further and cashout at the usual ridiculously bad inplay odds?

It is amazing how many people I know who use these despite having been told how bad it is

[tikay]

Whilst were on this topic, how much vig do companies like Hills charge on the cashout button?

I assume betfair just hooverup whatever best lays are available, but do hills take this piss one step further and cashout at the usual ridiculously bad inplay odds?

It is amazing how many people I know who use these despite having been told how bad it is

Pure genius. For the bookie.

[AndrewT]

Whilst were on this topic, how much vig do companies like Hills charge on the cashout button?

I assume betfair just hooverup whatever best lays are available, but do hills take this piss one step further and cashout at the usual ridiculously bad inplay odds?

It is amazing how many people I know who use these despite having been told how bad it is

The cashout now button plays on the punter's psychological weakness of the pain of losing being greater than the pleasure from a greater win, meaning people will willingly give up quite a lot of equity in order to lock in a win.

Someone once did an analysis of Deal or No Deal, looking at the results of every show that had ever been made across all the countries the format had been sold to. The total value of the cash given away at the time, including the majority of the times when the player deals (ie greens out) was about $25m. If the players had all told the banker to GTFO and just opened their box (letting it ride) they'd have collectively won $40m.

Obv, you only get to play DOND once, and it's usually for big money, so kinda understandable greening out (you're playing outside your roll) but for normal bets you're just giving money back to the bookie.

[Doobs]

Whilst were on this topic, how much vig do companies like Hills charge on the cashout button?

I assume betfair just hooverup whatever best lays are available, but do hills take this piss one step further and cashout at the usual ridiculously bad inplay odds?

It is amazing how many people I know who use these despite having been told how bad it is

I have never analysed it, but I have heard the claim that the Betfair cash out button doesn't work how you would imagine and that you get better if you green out using best prices available.  You hear so much on how evil Betfair are, that it is hard to separate fact from fiction.

Does anybody know the definitive answer on this?

[Junior Senior]

Anyway, I have a few free bets I need to burn in the next 48 hours. Lets get back to punting! Tips for Tikay anyone?

[Doobs]

3rd time lucky.

Mark Selby is currently 13/2 on BetVictor.  The World Championship market on Betfair looks reasonably mature and close to efficient.  That means the prices of the favourites should be close to correct in the long run.  There is an obvious argument on the correct O'Sullivan price which is best left to another thread.

BetVictor offer £50 cash back if O'Sullivan wins the tournament.  But I'll just guess the Betfair price is approximately right.  If we take the lay price (conservative) we can assume he is 6.6/1 or 7.6.

The Betfair price on Selby has been hovering around 7.4/7.6 and 7.6/7.8 for the last day or two.  We can argue all day about what is his correct price, but 7.7 is likely a conservative estimate.

If we put £50 on Selby the expected return would be £50/7.7x7.5 (Selby wins) + £50/7.6 (O'Sullivan wins) = £55.28.  This is equivalent to an expected return of 10% long run, which is significantly better than the thread long run return.  This return is a slightlyconservative estimate.

Selby has been chosen as he has been closest to the Betfair Price in the last day or two.  Others that have been close are the 4 favourites and Ali Carter.  The previous recommendation to include Ali Carter (e/w) has been removed as only the win parts of bets are included in the offer.  I have changed the bet to just one player, so nobody should feel that by betting this we are stopping people betting on other players in the field.  By doing so we have increased volatility, but improved the EV of the return slightly.

Because of the fact that the Selby price on BetVictor is very close to the Betfair price there is reasonable chance the BetVictor price could disappear soon.

I think people have been given enough time to improve on this bet, and AFAIK nobody has taken up the challenge.

I think it is time to stop all the discussion around the intricacies of this bet, and just snap up the free £5 in long term EV on offer before it is too late.

Suggest Mark Selby £50 to win at 13/2 at BetVictor.  Do not take a lower price.  I really don't care which spreadsheet it goes on!

It is my wish that this £50 should not have any effect on any other proposed bets on the World Snooker Championship.  Could people respect that and propose bets accordingly.

Cheers

[Doobs]

Can someone remind me why it is best, according to shrewd ones, to take free bet on a big outsider than nicking a bit on a good thing/odds on banker, please?

ty

I don't think this is entirely correct.  I don't think the answer concerning you don't get your stake back fully explains why taking a short price horse is so bad.

Say you had a £50 free bet.

If you back a 1/2 chance. Assume it has a 67% chance of winning, your expectated return is 0.67 x £25 = £16.67

If you back a 3/1 chance.  Assume it has a 25% chance of winning, your expected return is 0.25 x £150 = £37.50

If you back a 10/1 chance.  Assume it has a 9% chance of winning, your expected return is  0.09 x £500 = £45

If you back a 50/1 chance.  I think this is where the theory falls over.  A lot of 50/1 chances are 80/1 or so on Betfair, so chance of winning is only 0.0125.  So expected return =£2500 x0.0125 = £31.25, which is lower than the expected return on the 10/1 chance.

I think the correct answer is use your free bet to back a horse that is over 10/1 that the bookie is offering very close to Betfair prices on.

Do not back each way, Camel explained this well yesterday.

This is a bump for JuniorSenior.  It explains why you should always choose bigger priced bets for free bets where the stake is not returned.  You should always avoid each way bets when using these types of free bets.

[Doobs]

How about having the free bet on my big price one in the 2.40? Each-way 5 places in that race is a really great concession and BetVictor are best price. At 1,2,3,4 the place price is an arb with Betfair.

 (go for the big one).

Don't bet eachway with free bets either.

The free bet is not returned.

So a £50 free bet placed as £25 ew which comes 2nd on a 4/1 returns £0.

Bump for JuniorSenior

[tikay]

3rd time lucky.

Mark Selby is currently 13/2 on BetVictor.  The World Championship market on Betfair looks reasonably mature and close to efficient.  That means the prices of the favourites should be close to correct in the long run.  There is an obvious argument on the correct O'Sullivan price which is best left to another thread.

BetVictor offer £50 cash back if O'Sullivan wins the tournament.  But I'll just guess the Betfair price is approximately right.  If we take the lay price (conservative) we can assume he is 6.6/1 or 7.6.

The Betfair price on Selby has been hovering around 7.4/7.6 and 7.6/7.8 for the last day or two.  We can argue all day about what is his correct price, but 7.7 is likely a conservative estimate.

If we put £50 on Selby the expected return would be £50/7.7x7.5 (Selby wins) + £50/7.6 (O'Sullivan wins) = £55.28.  This is equivalent to an expected return of 10% long run, which is significantly better than the thread long run return.  This return is a slightlyconservative estimate.

Selby has been chosen as he has been closest to the Betfair Price in the last day or two.  Others that have been close are the 4 favourites and Ali Carter.  The previous recommendation to include Ali Carter (e/w) has been removed as only the win parts of bets are included in the offer.  I have changed the bet to just one player, so nobody should feel that by betting this we are stopping people betting on other players in the field.  By doing so we have increased volatility, but improved the EV of the return slightly.

Because of the fact that the Selby price on BetVictor is very close to the Betfair price there is reasonable chance the BetVictor price could disappear soon.

I think people have been given enough time to improve on this bet, and AFAIK nobody has taken up the challenge.

I think it is time to stop all the discussion around the intricacies of this bet, and just snap up the free £5 in long term EV on offer before it is too late.

Suggest Mark Selby £50 to win at 13/2 at BetVictor.  Do not take a lower price.  I really don't care which spreadsheet it goes on!

It is my wish that this £50 should not have any effect on any other proposed bets on the World Snooker Championship.  Could people respect that and propose bets accordingly.

Cheers

Thanks Doobs, all aboard.

We have £50 @ 13/2, BetVictor, Mark Selby to win the World Snooker Championship, £50 CASH BACK IF RONNIE O'SULLIVAN WINS.

ON

Outright
 
Mark Selby
(2013 World Championships - Outright)
 
Odds: 13/2
Stake: 50.00
 
Possible Return:  375.00

[tikay]

World Championship Snooker

Below is our current portfiolio. We have incurred around £6 of losses so far.

Jack Lisowski, £3 @ 100/1

Judd Trump £50 @ 8/1

Mark Selby, £50 @ 13/2, MONEY BACK IF RONNIE WINS.

[TightEnd]

World Championship Snooker

Below is our current portfiolio. We have incurred around £6 of losses so far.

Jack Lisowski, £3 @ 100/1

Judd Trump £50 @ 8/1

Mark Selby, £50 @ 13/2, MONEY BACK IF RONNIE WINS.

could bobby1 clarify if he wanted Robertson to be in here please? I beleive he did several hundred pages ago, and price is unmoved


as to the draw

if it ran to seeds, which it won't

Ronnie v Higgins
Murphy v Trump
Robertson v Maguire
Allen v Selby. Ding is also in this quarter

are the quarters

Robertson is a nice counterpoint in the draw to being on Trump and (I think tikay is) Ronnie, but equally we don't want to be covering the top 4 in an efficient market, offers aside
My ideas of winning qualifiers in the first round are

Holt over Walden
Fu over Stevens
Baird over Bingham
Gould over Murphy
Lisowski over Hawkins

Looking for comfortably above evens on any to get involved
 

[Doobs]

World Championship Snooker

Below is our current portfiolio. We have incurred around £6 of losses so far.

Jack Lisowski, £3 @ 100/1

Judd Trump £50 @ 8/1

Mark Selby, £50 @ 13/2, MONEY BACK IF RONNIE WINS.

could bobby1 clarify if he wanted Robertson to be in here please? I beleive he did several hundred pages ago, and price is unmoved


as to the draw

if it ran to seeds, which it won't

Ronnie v Higgins
Murphy v Trump
Robertson v Maguire
Allen v Selby. Ding is also in this quarter

are the quarters

Robertson is a nice counterpoint in the draw to being on Trump and (I think tikay is) Ronnie, but equally we don't want to be covering the top 4 in an efficient market, offers aside
My ideas of winning qualifiers in the first round are

Holt over Walden
Fu over Stevens
Baird over Bingham
Gould over Murphy
Lisowski over Hawkins

Looking for comfortably above evens on any to get involved
 

I was serious above.  We should ignore the Selby bet.  It stands on its own merits and was used to pick off an offer.  Obviously if you can conclude Selby is a good bet elsewhere, then we don't need to repeat the bet, but it shouldn't really be a consideration when considering a bet on Robertson.

I think the Tikay getting uncomfy limit is a bit lower than £500, so there could be a minor limitation on our exposure by putting on the Selby bet, but that is it. 

Thanks

[tikay]

World Championship Snooker

Below is our current portfiolio. We have incurred around £6 of losses so far.

Jack Lisowski, £3 @ 100/1

Judd Trump £50 @ 8/1

Mark Selby, £50 @ 13/2, MONEY BACK IF RONNIE WINS.

could bobby1 clarify if he wanted Robertson to be in here please? I beleive he did several hundred pages ago, and price is unmoved


as to the draw

if it ran to seeds, which it won't

Ronnie v Higgins
Murphy v Trump
Robertson v Maguire
Allen v Selby. Ding is also in this quarter

are the quarters

Robertson is a nice counterpoint in the draw to being on Trump and (I think tikay is) Ronnie, but equally we don't want to be covering the top 4 in an efficient market, offers aside
My ideas of winning qualifiers in the first round are

Holt over Walden
Fu over Stevens
Baird over Bingham
Gould over Murphy
Lisowski over Hawkins

Looking for comfortably above evens on any to get involved
 

I was serious above.  We should ignore the Selby bet.  It stands on its own merits and was used to pick off an offer.  Obviously if you can conclude Selby is a good bet elsewhere, then we don't need to repeat the bet, but it shouldn't really be a consideration when considering a bet on Robertson.

I think the Tikay getting uncomfy limit is a bit lower than £500, so there could be a minor limitation on our exposure by putting on the Selby bet, but that is it. 

Thanks

Maybe, but I learned good lessons from the Masters Post Mortem, & I don't have ego issues (accepting good advice from young whippersnappers), so my discomfort will ease with practice. 

[Junior Senior]

Thanks had already planned on gambling it up on a double figure priced bet give. It's a free shot and stake not returned